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Call Updates

Barr Pharma - BRL - close: 49.77 chg: +0.61 stop: 45.99 *new*

BRL inches to another new relative high and looks poised to breakout over the $50.00 level. Investors are obviously not worried about Kos (KOSP) filing for a temporary restraining order against BRL's attempt to launch a generic version of Niaspan, a cholesterol treatment. We remain bullish but remember this play is going to take some patience as BRL doesn't move very quickly. We are raising our stop loss to $45.99.

Picked on March 01 at $ 48.53
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 800 thousand


Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 71.75 chg: -0.01 stop: 69.95

No change from our previous update.

Picked on February 06 at $ 71.17
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 01/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


Ingersoll-Rand - IR - cls: 84.47 chg: -0.13 stop: 82.49

Shares of IR bounced where we expected it to in the $83-84 range above the rising 21-dma. Today's bounce could offer a new bullish entry point but we would look for some confirmation first since the stock began to fade just a bit this afternoon.

Picked on February 27 at $ 83.00
Change since picked: + 1.47
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million


Loews Corp - LTR - close: 73.09 chg: -0.41 stop: 69.95

Watch for a bounce from the $72.00 level.

Picked on February 15 at $ 74.15
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 02/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 452 thousand


Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 49.09 chg: -1.75 stop: 47.95

Ouch! We cannot find any news or catalyst to explain this morning's sharp drop in NCX. The breakdown under its 10-dma and the round-number $50.00 mark is bearish. Making us even more worried was the very big volume on the drop, which suggests investors are exiting. Conservative traders may to exit quickly to preserve any remaining profits. We will look for NCX to find support in the $48.50-48.00 range. We are not suggesting new bullish plays at this time.

Picked on February 22 at $ 48.01
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 01/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 383 thousand


Parker-Hannifin - PH - close: 68.26 change: +1.11 stop: 63.99

Good news! PH bounced back above the $48.00 level and its simple 50-dma.

Picked on March 03 at $ 68.11
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 01/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


PACCAR - PCAR - close: 76.15 chg: -0.08 stop: 71.99

PCAR has pulled back and bounced just where we expected at the $75.00 level. Readers can use this bounce as a new bullish entry point although it wouldn't hurt to look for some confirmation (a.k.a. follow through) on the bounce.

Picked on February 28 at $ 75.25
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


Progressive - PGR - close: 89.29 change: +1.20 stop: 85.80

PGR produced a decent bounce from its rising trendline of support. Readers can use today as a new bullish entry point although at this point we'd probably suggest looking for a move over $90.00 before initiating positions.

Picked on March 07 at $ 89.20
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


Texas Industries - TXI - cls: 64.05 chg: -2.00 stop: 63.49

Somebody must have put out a sell alert on coal stocks but we can't find it. The entire sector was hit pretty hard today yet there was no news. TXI lost three percent and broke down below what should have been round-number support at the 65.00 mark. Currently TXI is still holding up above long-time technical support at the 50-dma. If TXI can produce a bounce from here it will be a new bullish entry point but given the industry-wide sell-off today we're on the defensive.

Picked on January 09 at $ 60.18
Change since picked: + 3.87
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 238 thousand


Wellpoint - WLP - close: 124.35 chg: -0.20 stop: 119.99

WLP has not seen any follow through on last Friday's breakout to a new high. The overall trend of lower highs is still bullish and aggressive traders might want to consider buying the recent dip. We would prefer to see a new high over the $128.00 level or at least over $126.00 before going long again.

Picked on March 06 at $126.88
Change since picked: - 2.53
Earnings Date 04/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

Put Updates

Apollo Group - APOL - close: 75.95 chg: +0.04 stop: 78.01

No change from previous update.

Picked on January 23 at $ 77.61
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million


Career Education - CECO - close: 33.62 chg: -0.66 stop: 37.51

No change from previous update.

Picked on February 22 at $ 34.90
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million


Google Inc - GOOG - close: 179.98 chg: -1.37 stop: 185.01

Hmm... GOOG gave us what we wanted - a breakdown under support at the $180.00 mark but unfortunately the stock managed a bounce right back toward this support. We are encouraged by the new P&F chart sell signal printed today (and its $156 price target) but would probably wait to see a confirmation that the $180 level is indeed broken before opening new plays. This play has been opened at our trigger of $179.49.

Picked on March 10 at $179.49
Change since picked: + 0.49
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million


Ishares Dow Jones US Energy - IYE - cls 74.85 chg: -1.40 stop: 80.01

Today's decline looks like the follow through we wanted to see from yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Picked on March 09 at $ 76.25
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand


Oil Service Holders - OIH - close: 94.25 chg: -1.85 stop: 100.01

The OIH holders have confirmed the breakdown with today's drop under the $95.00 mark and its rising 21-dma. Volume was even bigger today than it was on yesterday's reversal.

Picked on March 09 at $ 96.10
Change since picked: - 1.85
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

Dropped Calls

Alliance Resource - ARLP - cls: 73.18 chg: -3.52 stop: 74.49

If you read the TXI update then you know that something happened in the coal industry stocks today. The whole group took a dive and ARLP was leading the way lower with a 4.5 percent drop on very big volume. Normally big drops on big volume are bearish developments and we still believe that. However, ARLP has a history of this high-volume drops that stop at the stocks' rising 50-dma. You can see it on the chart in October and December 2004. Shares did it again today. ARLP pierced the 50-dma on an intraday basis but managed a bounce off its lows to close above this long-term technical support. While we have been stopped out at $74.49 traders might do well to keep an eye on ARLP to see if it bounces again.

Picked on February 27 at $ 75.01
Change since picked: - 1.83
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 95 thousand


St Joe Co - JOE - close: 72.65 chg: -1.25 stop: 72.49

The lack of follow through on JOE's recent breakout is discouraging but we kept a relatively tight stop to minimize our risk. Readers can keep an eye on JOE to see if shares bounce from its rising 50-dma near the $70.00 level. Such a rebound could be used as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on March 07 at $ 75.51
Change since picked: - 1.61
Earnings Date 05/04/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 500 thousand

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