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Play Updates

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Call Updates

Barr Pharma - BRL - close: 50.00 chg: -0.12 stop: 45.99

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 01 at $ 48.53
Change since picked: + 1.47
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 800 thousand

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Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 71.47 chg: +0.49 stop: 69.95

HIG has bounced from round-number, psychological support at the $70.00 level. Normally we would use such a rebound as a new bullish entry point but given the bearish tint to the IUX insurance index we'd prefer to err on the side of caution. Watch for some confirmation in HIG tomorrow before considering new bullish plays.

Picked on February 06 at $ 71.17
Change since picked: + 0.30
Earnings Date 01/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


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Ingersoll-Rand - IR - cls: 84.57 chg: +0.32 stop: 82.49

No change from previous update.

Picked on February 27 at $ 83.00
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Parker-Hannifin - PH - close: 68.57 change: +0.53 stop: 63.99

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 03 at $ 68.11
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 01/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 76.72 chg: +1.49 stop: 71.99

It looks like traders decided to buy the dip to the $75.00 level and PCAR out performed most of the market on Monday. Readers can use today's strength as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on February 28 at $ 75.25
Change since picked: + 1.47
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million


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Progressive - PGR - close: 90.50 change: +1.96 stop: 87.49*new*

PGR turned in a strong day rising 2.2 percent with volume surging during the late afternoon ramp up as the stock broke out over the $90.00 level. Today's move could put shorts on the run and we would expect to see some follow through tomorrow. We cannot find any news or events to account for the late day strength. We're going to take advantage of this move and raise our stop loss to $87.49.

Picked on March 07 at $ 89.20
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


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Red Robin Burger - RRGB - close: 49.05 chg: +1.02 stop: 43.99

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 10 at $ 48.00
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 02/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 199 thousand


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Texas Industries - TXI - cls: 64.90 chg: +0.82 stop: 63.49

No change from previous update.

Picked on January 09 at $ 60.18
Change since picked: + 4.72
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 238 thousand

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Wellpoint - WLP - close: 121.50 chg: -1.31 stop: 119.99

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 06 at $126.88
Change since picked: - 5.41
Earnings Date 04/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

Put Updates

Allergan - AGN - close: 73.31 chg: +0.22 stop: 76.05

AGN did produce a meager bounce today but volume was rising with the stock late in the session. We're expecting another positive day tomorrow but traders can look for a failed rally under the $75 level as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on March 13 at $ 73.09
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 04/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 777 thousand

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Apollo Group - APOL - close: 74.40 chg: +0.40 stop: 78.01

No change from previous update.


Picked on January 23 at $ 77.61
Change since picked: - 3.21
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Career Education - CECO - close: 33.04 chg: -0.18 stop: 37.51

No change from previous update.

Picked on February 22 at $ 34.90
Change since picked: - 1.86
Earnings Date 02/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Google Inc - GOOG - close: 174.99 chg: -2.81 stop: 185.01

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 10 at $179.49
Change since picked: - 4.50
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Ishares Dow Jones US Energy - IYE - cls 75.95 chg: +0.55 stop: 80.01

All right. Now we're starting to grow a little uneasy. A one-day oversold bounce is to be expected but the IYE has now bounced two days in a row. Readers should be on their toes here and conservative traders may want to lower their stops!

Picked on March 09 at $ 76.25
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand

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Cheniere Energy - LNG - close: 72.50 chg: +1.82 stop: 75.01

LNG is bouncing much like the oil sector indices. We would not suggest new bearish plays until LNG trades under $69.00 again.

Picked on March 11 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: + 3.01
Earnings Date 03/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand


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Oil Service Holders - OIH - close: 95.78 chg: +1.07 stop: 100.01

The OIH is bouncing just like the IYE and the OIX index. Conservative traders may want to adjust their stops.

Picked on March 09 at $ 96.10
Change since picked: - 0.32
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

Dropped Calls

Nova Chemicals - NCX - close: 48.32 chg: -0.64 stop: 47.95

NCX performed its second mysterious sell-off in the last few days during Monday's session. The stock fell sharply at the open and then proceeded to breakdown under support at the $48.00 level. We were stopped out at $47.95. Shares did manage a bounce from its lows but volume was very heavy on today's decline. Readers might want to keep an eye on NCX for a bounce back above the $50.00 level.

Picked on February 22 at $ 48.01
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 01/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 383 thousand

Dropped Puts

Genentech - DNA - close: 53.65 chg: +9.57 stop: 47.11

Believe it or not it was a very boring day for DNA with shares trading in a 50-cent range for most of the session. Then all of that changed in the last hour of the day. Shares were briefly halted for news pending. After they reopened for trading DNA exploded higher for a 21.7 percent gain. The company announced that its latest Phase III trial of Avastin combined with chemotherapy helped lung cancer patients live longer (source: AP). One broker followed the news with an upgrade. We were quickly stopped out at $47.11. We knew this was a high risk play and outlined the risks in the original update but we didn't expect any kind of news like this for another month or two.

Picked on March 10 at $ 44.20
Change since picked: + 9.45
Earnings Date 04/11/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million

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MicroStrategy - MSTR - close: 70.83 chg: +5.94 stop: 68.51

Ahah! We warned you MSTR was still volatile. We're also happy that we used a trigger to wait for MSTR to confirm the breakdown. This morning Jefferies upgraded the stock to a "buy" and raised their price target to $81.00. This sent shares of MSTR soaring. We're going to close the play unopened. Nimble traders may actually want to consider bullish positions if MSTR can breakout over $73.50.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: - 0.00
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 659 thousand

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