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Call Updates

Hartford Financial - HIG - cls: 70.65 chg: -0.34 stop: 69.95

Another down day for insurance giant AIG weighed on the sector again. So far HIG is maintaining support near the $70.00 level but the short-term trend does not look good. Considering the trajectory of the IUX insurance index and the weakness in the broader market indices conservative traders may just want to exit here and sit on the sidelines. We look at HIG and see another do or die situation with support at the $70.00 mark. Traders can use a bounce over $72.00 as a new bullish entry point or even consider going short on a drop below $70.00.

Picked on February 06 at $ 71.17
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 01/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


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Parker-Hannifin - PH - close: 67.65 change: -0.15 stop: 63.99

Thus far PH has weathered the market downturn by consolidating sideways. Unfortunately, the technical oscillators are all starting to look bearish. The MACD looks like it wants to turn lower. Currently PH does have minor support at $67.00 and more support near $65.00 and its 200-dma. Traders may want to consider exiting here and just sit out while we see if the markets turn lower and if PH pulls back to retest these support levels. Or conservative traders could use a tight stop under $67.00 to yank them out of the play. Readers can always look for a new entry on a bounce from the $65.00 level. Right now we are not suggesting new plays.

Picked on March 03 at $ 68.11
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 01/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Progressive - PGR - close: 88.91 change: -1.17 stop: 87.49

No change from previous update. No big changes here. PGR has pulled back toward the bottom of its narrow rising channel as we expected it would. Look for the bounce back over the $90.00 level as a new entry point.

Picked on March 07 at $ 89.20
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


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Red Robin Burger - RRGB - cls: 50.10 chg: +0.36 stop: 44.99*new*

No change from previous update. This is the first close over $50.00 since January 3rd of this year. The relative strength is encouraging. We are raising the stop loss to $44.99.

Picked on March 10 at $ 48.00
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 02/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 199 thousand


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Texas Industries - TXI - cls: 66.00 chg: +0.85 stop: 63.49

No change from previous update. Readers may want to use this bounce as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on January 09 at $ 60.18
Change since picked: + 5.82
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 238 thousand
 

Put Updates

Allergan - AGN - close: 71.70 chg: -0.61 stop: 76.05

No change from previous update. AGN is nearing the February low (71.26) which could act as support. Watch for a possible short-term bounce.

Picked on March 13 at $ 73.09
Change since picked: - 1.39
Earnings Date 04/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 777 thousand

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Apollo Group - APOL - close: 74.84 chg: +0.51 stop: 77.51*new*

No change from previous update. We are lowering the stop loss to $77.51.

Picked on January 23 at $ 77.61
Change since picked: - 2.77
Earnings Date 12/16/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Google Inc - GOOG - close: 179.29 chg: +3.69 stop: 185.01

We stated that GOOG was going to be a higher-risk, aggressive and volatile play when we started it. The yo-yo affect should be expected. We won't start to worry until GOOG trades over $182.50. In the news there was yet another story about GOOG insiders selling shares.

Picked on March 10 at $179.49
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Ishares Dow Jones US Energy - IYE - cls 76.31 chg: +1.71 stop: 80.01

Okay, so now we're starting to grow a bit more concerned. There has been no follow through on the breakdown. Recent comments from OPEC that they are raising their forecast for global demand is 2005 don't do us any favors. If IYE trades above the $77.00 level tomorrow we will probably close this play early. We are not suggesting new positions. Readers can prepare to exit.

Picked on March 09 at $ 76.25
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 124 thousand

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Cheniere Energy - LNG - close: 71.66 chg: +0.65 stop: 75.01

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 11 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: + 2.17
Earnings Date 03/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand


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Mcgraw Hill Cos - MHP - close: 88.98 chg: +0.82 stop: 90.21

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 15 at $ 88.40
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 751 thousand


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Millipore - MIL - close: 43.89 chg: +0.16 stop: 46.05

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 16 at $ 43.95
Change since picked: - 0.06
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 358 thousand


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Oil Service Holders - OIH - close: 94.79 chg: +0.54 stop: 100.01

Our play on the OIH is the same as on the IYE. The lack of follow through is a problem. We are preparing an early exit if the holders bounce again tomorrow.

Picked on March 09 at $ 96.10
Change since picked: - 1.31
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

Barr Pharma - BRL - close: 47.32 chg: -1.60 stop: 45.99

In the absence of any other influences it seems like stocks, at least lately, are really over-reacting to any sort of broker upgrade or downgrade. That's what happened today with BRL. CSFB downgraded the stock from an "out perform" to a "neutral" and BRL gapped lower, bounced and then rolled over the $48.00 level to close down 3.27 percent. Volume was well above average and its MACD has reversed into a new sell signal. While BRL has not traded anywhere near our stop loss we're going to minimize our losses and exit here. More aggressive traders may want to consider hanging on one more day just to see if BRL bounces from the 50-dma.

Picked on March 01 at $ 48.53
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 02/02/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 800 thousand

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PACCAR - PCAR - close: 73.40 chg: -0.50 stop: 73.25

No surprises here. Another lackluster day in the markets let PCAR drift towards the 50-dma and the $73.00 level. We were stopped out at $73.25. However, considering the new bearish technicals it's probably a good thing we are out now. We will, however, be watching to see if and where PCAR bounces from the longer-term up trend.

Picked on February 28 at $ 75.25
Change since picked: - 1.85
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
 

Dropped Puts

None today.

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