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Call Updates

Cleveland Cliffs - CLF - cls: 77.25 chg: -1.02 stop: 74.49

No change from Thursday's update. Traders should be careful here. The major indices continue to look weak and with Thursday's failed rally stocks could see trouble next week. If that's the case then CLF is likely to retest the $75.00 level as support. We would not suggest new bullish positions until CLF traded back over the $80.00 mark. More aggressive traders could try buying a bounce from the $75.00 level.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on March 21 at $ 77.06
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 02/16/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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PalmOne - PLMO - close: 26.60 chg: +0.89 stop: 22.99

No change from Thursday's update. Good news! PLMO continued to show strength on Thursday and the stock added another 3.6 percent on decent volume. Thursday's gain also produced a new buy signal on the P&F chart with a $35.00 target. We are only targeting a move into the $29-30 range. There are no changes to our strategy outlined on Wednesday. If PLMO surprises us with a dip look for the $25.00 level to act as support.

Suggested Options:
We are going to suggest the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 22.50 UPY-EX OI=2327 current ask $4.90
BUY CALL MAY 25.00 UPY-EE OI=3322 current ask $3.20
BUY CALL MAY 30.00 UPY-EF OI=6337 current ask $1.10

Picked on March 23 at $ 25.71
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 03/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million

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Parker-Hannifin - PH - close: 67.55 change: +1.06 stop: 63.99

No change from Thursday's update. PH is providing us some good news as well. The stock bounced from the dip to $66.50 and is back over the 50-dma. However, we would remain cautious until PH traded back above the $68.50-69.00 level, which would suggest there is more strength behind the current bounce. Currently the MACD indicator is negative but the short-term RSI and stochastic oscillators are starting to turn positive.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls although we will not hold over the April earnings report.

BUY CALL MAY 65.00 PH-EM OI= 220 current ask $4.40
BUY CALL MAY 70.00 PH-EN OI=1083 current ask $1.65

Picked on March 03 at $ 68.11
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 01/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Red Robin Burger - RRGB - cls: 49.80 chg: +0.52 stop: 44.99

RRGB continues to out perform the market even if it's just consolidating sideways instead of drifting lower. We noticed that RRGB traded above round-number resistance at the $50.00 level on Friday morning. This could have been attributed to strength in larger rival YUM Brands (YUM), which re-affirmed earnings guidance and surged to a new high. Actually there are several restaurant stocks that are at or near one-year or all-time highs and the group could see more strength next week as fund managers do some window dressing with the winners. Readers can use dips toward $48.00 as entry points or a new relative high over $50.50.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the June options because they have the most open interest.

BUY CALL JUN 45.00 QZR-FI OI= 49 current ask $6.80
BUY CALL JUN 50.00 QZR-FJ OI= 67 current ask $3.50

Picked on March 10 at $ 48.00
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 02/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 199 thousand
 

Put Updates

Allergan - AGN - close: 70.80 chg: -0.15 stop: 76.05

AGN continues to under perform the markets and now the stock is under performing the DRG drug index. The DRG managed a decent bounce in the last couple of sessions but not so for shares of AGN. Instead AGN is testing support at the $70.00 level. The stock is due for an oversold bounce so traders should be prepared. Watch the $72.00-72.50 area as potential overhead resistance. Our target remains the $67.50 level. The P&F chart remains bearish with a $61.00 target.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April puts.

BUY PUT APR 75 AGN-PO OI=2421 current ask $4.70
BUY PUT APR 70 AGN-PN OI= 695 current ask $1.35

Picked on March 13 at $ 73.09
Change since picked: - 2.29
Earnings Date 04/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 777 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 52.27 chg: +0.46 stop: 54.01

The Commerce Dept. announced that new home sales soared again in February to a very strong pace. Yet the positive news only produced a short-term blip higher in shares of BZH. However, we do not like the shape things are taking in BZH's technical oscillators. Some of the technicals are starting to suggest that BZH could rebound from oversold relatively soon. If we don't see some follow through to the downside in the next couple of days we'll probably exit BZH early.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new plays at this time.


Picked on March 17 at $ 51.43
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 01/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 742 thousand

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Google Inc - GOOG - close: 179.25 chg: +0.27 stop: 185.01

Our aggressive, higher-risk play in GOOG is showing some very un-GOOG like characteristics. The stock has been very non-volatile the last few days as shares consolidate sideways above and below the $180.00 level. We believe the prevailing eight-week downtrend will overcome however this may hinge on if the NASDAQ continues to breakdown or bounces. More conservative traders can tighten their stop loss toward the $182.51 mark. We do find it interesting that the bearish P&F chart has extended its downside target to $148. Yet we would not suggest new bearish positions until GOOG traded under $177.50 again. Our target remains the $165.00 region but we may adjust this as time begins to run out.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April puts because we do not plan to hold over the April earnings report.

BUY PUT APR 185.00 GOU-PQ OI=3834 current ask $8.50
BUY PUT APR 180.00 GOU-PP OI=6935 current ask $5.30
BUY PUT APR 175.00 GOU-PO OI=9540 current ask $3.10
BUY PUT APR 170.00 GOQ-PW OI=7653 current ask $1.70*symbol change

Picked on March 10 at $179.49
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Cheniere Energy - LNG - close: 67.36 chg: +0.66 stop: 72.01

No change from Thursday's update. LNG managed a bounce on yesterday's potential (bullish) reversal but the bounce began to fail as well with LNG turning lower in the afternoon. We remain bearish and expect the $70.00 level to act as overhead resistance. Our target remains the $62.00-60.00 range but watch carefully for potential support near the 100-dma.

Suggested Options:
We are still suggesting the April puts but time is going to start growing short for April options. Traders may want to consider May options.

BUY PUT APR 70.00 LNG-PO OI= 206 current ask $5.00
BUY PUT APR 65.00 LNG-PM OI=1025 current ask $2.55

Picked on March 11 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 2.13
Earnings Date 03/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand

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Intl Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 90.70 chg: +0.18 stop 92.15

No change from Thursday's update. IBM continued to rise with its oversold bounce but the rally began to fail near the $91.50 level this afternoon. This could be a new bearish entry point but we would want to see IBM confirm the failed rally with a drop back under the $90.00 mark.

Suggested Options:
We are going to suggest the April puts because we do not plan to hold over the April earnings report.

BUY PUT APR 95.00 IBM-PS OI=25843 current ask $4.50
BUY PUT APR 90.00 IBM-PR OI=27018 current ask $1.00
BUY PUT APR 85.00 IBM-PQ OI=16019 current ask $0.15

Picked on March 17 at $ 89.86
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 04/14/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Mcgraw Hill Cos - MHP - close: 87.79 chg: -0.60 stop: 90.21

Unfortunately we have little to report on for MHP. The stock broke down on March 9th; confirmed the breakdown on the 10th with huge volume behind the move. The oversold bounce failed at round-number at the $90.00 level bolstered by its 100-dma. Yet there has not been any more follow through to the downside. Shares have been stuck consolidating sideways for the last several days. Our short-term target was the 200-dma's, which at the time were in the $84-85 region. Now the 200-dma's are rising. We'd be happy with a drop to the $85.00 mark. At this point we'd hesitate to open new positions even though the P&F chart points to a $76 target.

Suggested Options:
We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on March 15 at $ 88.40
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 751 thousand

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Millipore - MIL - close: 44.70 chg: +0.24 stop: 46.05

The nine-month trend in MIL has been a consistent one of lower highs. Now that the stock has effectively filled the gap from late January we expected a continuation of the decline. MIL broke down under its short-term trend of support a few days ago but has since rebounded. Currently the stock is testing resistance at its 50-dma. We would wait for shares to trade back under the $44.00 level before considering new bearish positions. If shares do trade over the $45.00 level we may close the play early.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April puts because we do not plan to hold over the April earnings report.

BUY PUT APR 45.00 MIL-PI OI=341 current ask $1.30
BUY PUT APR 40.00 MIL-PH OI=184 current ask $0.25

Picked on March 16 at $ 43.95
Change since picked: + 0.75
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 358 thousand

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Pacificare Health - PHS - close: 58.43 chg: +0.33 stop: 62.01

PHS continues to look bearish and vulnerable following its high-volume breakdown on March 18th. Since then PHS has tried to produce a short-term oversold rally but each has been met with new selling pressure. The stock remains longer-term overbought and due for a steeper correction. Our target remains the $55.00-54.00 range. Traders can use failed rallies under $60.00 as new bearish entry points. Keep an eye on the rising 100-dma, which could try and act as support.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May puts but we do not plan to hold over the late April earnings report.

BUY PUT MAY 65.00 PHS-QM OI= 373 current ask $7.40
BUY PUT MAY 60.00 PHS-QL OI=2276 current ask $3.90
BUY PUT MAY 55.00 PHS-QK OI= 553 current ask $1.80

Picked on March 20 at $ 59.04
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 77.27 chg: +1.27 stop: 81.50

No change from Thursday's update. TOL bounced a bit after the Commerce Dept. announced strong new home sales for February. The lack of a bigger, more positive reaction could be taken as confirmation that the group is getting tired and in need of more consolidation. The $80.00 mark should be overhead resistance. Short-term technical oscillators are suggesting another bounce soon so watch for a rebound towards $80.00.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the April and May puts.

BUY PUT APR 80.00 TOL-PP OI=4706 current ask $4.70
BUY PUT APR 75.00 TOL-PO OI=7670 current ask $2.25
BUY PUT APR 70.00 TOL-PN OI=5668 current ask $0.95

BUY PUT MAY 80.00 TOL-QP OI= 105 current ask $6.70
BUY PUT MAY 75.00 TOL-QO OI= 276 current ask $4.30

Picked on March 17 at $ 76.81
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 02/23/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None

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