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Call Updates

Amer. Intl Grp - AIG - cls: 57.16 chg: -1.04 stop: 55.95

Uh-oh! We feel like yelling, "ABORT, ABORT!" but we're not willing to give up on AIG just yet. AIG was the only Dow-component not to trade higher today. Instead shares dropped 1.78 percent after the company postponed their Q4 results for the second time. The lack of follow through on its reversal and on such a bullish bounce in the markets makes us very wary.

Picked on March 29 @ $ 58.01
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.2 million

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PalmOne - PLMO - close: 25.08 chg: +0.22 stop: 23.25

We don't have much to report on for PLMO and this time that's a bad thing. The lack of participation in today's market bounce is a concern. Be on your guard.

Picked on March 23 at $ 25.71
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 03/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million

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Red Robin Burger - RRGB - cls: 50.56 chg: +0.14 stop: 44.99

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 10 at $ 48.00
Change since picked: + 2.56
Earnings Date 02/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 199 thousand
 

Put Updates

Allergan - AGN - close: 70.09 chg: -0.32 stop: 75.01

The lack of participation in today's market bounce is good news for the bears.

Picked on March 13 at $ 73.09
Change since picked: - 3.00
Earnings Date 04/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 777 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 49.70 chg: -0.35 stop: 54.01

Ding! BZH slipped to $48.50 this morning, near the 100-dma, before bouncing. Yesterday we suggested that conservative traders consider exiting at $48.50. We're going to maintain our $48.00-46.50 target. Today's breakdown under the $50.00 mark is good news for housing bears in BZH and the lack of participation in the market's bounce by the home construction index is also good news. However, we do notice that BZH appeared to be bouncing higher by the close. Look for possible bounce back into the $51-52 range before BZH turns lower.

Picked on March 17 at $ 51.43
Change since picked: - 1.73
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 742 thousand

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Google Inc - GOOG - close: 180.45 chg: +0.88 stop: 185.01

Good news! The market produced a big bounce and First Albany reiterated its "buy" rating on GOOG but shares of the search-engine giant failed to respond positively. This bodes well for our put play but we remain cautious especially if the market continues to bounce. Look for a drop under $177 before considering new bearish positions.

Picked on March 10 at $179.49
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 02/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.9 million

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Intl Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 90.68 chg: +0.08 stop 92.15

Today's 8-cent gain in IBM looks like good news to us. The Dow gains 135 points and IBM only adds 8 cents? That looks like relative weakness and bodes well for our put play. However, we remain cautious. The markets are still oversold and could continue to bounce for a few days yet. We would wait for IBM to trade back under the $90.00 level before considering new bearish positions.

Picked on March 17 at $ 89.86
Change since picked: + 0.82
Earnings Date 04/14/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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MGM Mirage - MGG - close: 70.80 chg: +0.55 stop: 72.51

No change from previous update. MGG's lack of participation on the rally is good news for the bears. Our trigger to go short/buy puts is $68.75.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 997 thousand

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Mcgraw Hill Cos - MHP - close: 87.89 chg: +1.83 stop: 90.21

MHP bounced with the market today and almost erased yesterday's losses. Be careful.

Picked on March 15 at $ 88.40
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 751 thousand

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Millipore - MIL - close: 43.59 chg: -0.58 stop: 46.05

Good news! MIL did not participate in the market's oversold bounce today. Instead the stock lost 1.3 percent on heavy volume suggesting more weakness ahead.

Picked on March 16 at $ 43.95
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 358 thousand

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Pacificare Health - PHS - close: 58.62 chg: +0.64 stop: 62.01

No change from previous update.

Picked on March 20 at $ 59.04
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 77.10 chg: +0.09 stop: 80.51

We are encouraged that the home construction index and TOL did not truly participate in the market bounce today. However, we remain somewhat cautious as Merrill Lynch issued some positive comments on TOL today. If we don't see a continuation of the breakdown soon we may exit early.

Picked on March 17 at $ 76.81
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 02/23/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 95.00 chg: +1.79 stop: 96.01

We are choosing an early exit in FDX. The bounce in the transports from its long-term support trendline and FDX's bounce from the $93.00 level have put our bearish play in serious jeopardy. We'd rather cut our losses here.

Picked on March 27 at $ 93.89
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 03/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Cheniere Energy - LNG - close: 63.57 chg: -0.09 stop: 70.01

Target achieved! LNG continued to breakdown this morning and shares traded well into our target range of $62.00-60.00. Yesterday we mistakenly listed the target as $62.50-60.00. The low today was $60.60 before shares bounced back. We're closing the play at $62.00 per our published strategy. If you have not closed the play we urge caution. The market could continue to bounce for several days. LNG does have some resistance at the $65.00 mark but it would not surprise us to see LNG bounce even higher.

Picked on March 11 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 5.92
Earnings Date 03/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 517 thousand
 

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