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Anadarko Petroleum - APC - cls: 76.26 chg: -0.68 stop: 72.45

APC has spent the last few days consolidating lower as crude oil pulled back from its highs. APC's technical signals are mixed but they are trending lower. Bulls need to see APC rebound from the $75.00 level or its simple 50-dma near $73.25. We would not suggest new bullish positions until we see APC produce a significant bounce from one of these support levels. Keep in mind that we plan to exit before its late April earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls even though we plan to exit near the end of April to avoid earnings.

BUY CALL MAY 75.00 APC-EO OI=4562 current ask $4.20
BUY CALL MAY 80.00 APC-EP OI=3933 current ask $2.05

Picked on March 31 at $ 76.10
Change since picked: 0.16
Earnings Date 04/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Carpenter Tech - CRS - close: 61.68 chg: -1.40 stop: 59.95

CRS is a new play from the Thursday night newsletter. A reprint of our strategy follows:

CRS has a somewhat steady pattern of trending higher over the past several months. A quick glance at the daily chart does show a few pull backs but the overall trend looks like one of a bullish, rising channel. Several days ago CRS put in another short-term bottom and the stock is rebounding higher. Two days ago the company announced that it was raising prices on some of its products. Technical oscillators are bullish and its MACD just produced a fresh buy signal yesterday. We like the close over the 50-dma today and the bullish P&F chart that points to a $76 target. However, we see some resistance at the $64.00 level. Our plan is to use a TRIGGER at $64.05 to open the play. More aggressive traders can use an alternative entry point on a pull back toward the $60.00 mark although we'd prefer to buy a bounce from $60.00 if CRS did pull back. Our target is the $70.00 region. What makes this play somewhat more risky is the time frame. We do not want to hold over the April 25th earnings report and even that date has not yet been confirmed.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 60.00 CRS-EL OI=489 current ask $4.50
BUY CALL MAY 65.00 CRS-EM OI=187 current ask $2.10

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 04/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 334 thousand

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Occidental Petrol. - OXY - cls: 72.22 chg: -0.80 stop: 67.99

OXY has managed to consolidate sideways between $72 and $75 while crude oil has slid lower this past week. We still believe in the upside of oil and the oil stocks but OXY could dip toward the $70.00 level. Be patient and don't rush to open any new positions. A dip to and bounce from the $70.00 level could be used as a new bullish entry point. We would suggest waiting for the bounce before initiating new plays.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls even though we plan to exit before the April earnings report.

BUY CALL MAY 70.00 OXY-EN OI=4871 current ask $4.50
BUY CALL MAY 75.00 OXY-EO OI=5584 current ask $1.95
BUY CALL MAY 80.00 OXY-EP OI=2129 current ask $0.70

Picked on April 03 at $ 73.64
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Oil Service Holdrs - OIH - cls: 96.00 chg: -1.97 stop: 92.49

The OIH holders have pulled back in the last two sessions but remains in its short-term sideways consolidation between $96 and $100. If the OIH doesn't bounce from the $95.00 level and its rising 50-dma we would expect additional support in the $94-93 range. Considering the pull back in oil prices we would hesitate to initiate new bullish plays at this time. Wait to see if and when the OIH produces a significant bounce before going long. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new high over $100.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 95.00 OIH-ES OI=2434 current ask $4.70
BUY CALL MAY 100.00 OIH-ET OI=6928 current ask $2.40
BUY CALL MAY 105.00 OIH-EA OI=4049 current ask $1.10

Picked on April 03 at $ 98.70
Change since picked: - 2.70
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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PalmOne - PLMO - close: 24.27 chg: -0.32 stop: 23.85

Larger rival RIMM has managed to rebound in the last couple of sessions but not so for PLMO. Instead shares of PLMO continue to drift lower toward support near $24.00 and its 50-dma. We are growing increasingly concerned here. Conservative traders may want to exit now to minimize any losses. We are not suggesting new bullish positions until PLMO trades back over $25.00 or $25.50.

Suggested options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on March 23 at $ 25.71
Change since picked: - 1.44
Earnings Date 03/17/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million

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Potash Corp. - POT - close: 88.39 chg: -0.11 stop: 85.99

POT is a relatively new addition to the play list added on April 5th. We like its long-term bullish trend and its bullish P&F chart with a $105 target. We would use the pull back to the $88.00 level as a new bullish entry point. However, we would want to verify market direction before initiating new positions. That means if the major averages are sinking we'd probably hesitate to add new longs in POT. More conservative traders who don't want to buy the dip can wait for a new high over the $92.00 level. Our target is the $97-99 range before POT's April 27th (unconfirmed) earnings report.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the June options because they have the most open interest. We do plan to close the play before the April earnings.

BUY CALL JUN 85.00 POT-FQ OI=667 current ask $6.60
BUY CALL JUN 90.00 POT-FR OI=232 current ask $3.80
BUY CALL JUN 95.00 POT-FS OI=123 current ask $1.90

Picked on April 05 at $ 90.18
Change since picked: - 1.79
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 504 thousand

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Red Robin Burger - RRGBE - cls: 52.59 chg: -0.46 stop: 49.49

RRGBE turned in a strong week out performing most of the market. The stock climbed to new relative highs not seen since December. Shares are up significantly from our entry point and we have been suggesting that readers strongly consider exiting early with RRGBE above the $52 level. Currently we're hanging on to see if shares can tag our initial target at $54.00. Keep your ears open on Monday, April 11th as RRGBE holds a conference call to discuss its updated guidance. With RRGBE this close to our target we are not suggesting new bullish positions.

Suggested options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on March 10 at $ 48.00
Change since picked: 4.59
Earnings Date 02/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 199 thousand

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Whole Foods - WFMI - close: 102.08 chg: -1.68 stop: 98.99

We recently added WFMI to the play list as a call candidate when shares broke out on Wednesday through the top of its three-week trading range. The move helped produce a new MACD buy signal. We also like the bullish P&F chart with its $139 target. Since Wednesday's newsletter we've been disappointed to see a significant lack of follow through on the breakout. Friday's market sell-off drug shares of WFMI back under the top of its previous trading range. The stock is in danger of retesting the $100 level and its 50-dma. We would hesitate to begin any new bullish positions. More aggressive players can look for a bounce from the $100 level. We would prefer to wait for WFMI to trade back above the $104 mark before opening new long positions.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May calls.

BUY CALL MAY 100.00 FMQ-ET OI=1037 current ask $5.40
BUY CALL MAY 105.00 FMQ-EA OI=1188 current ask $2.95
BUY CALL MAY 110.00 FMQ-EB OI= 580 current ask $1.40

Picked on April 06 at $104.16
Change since picked: - 2.08
Earnings Date 05/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 956 thousand
 

Put Updates

Allergan - AGN - close: 70.62 chg: -0.92 stop: 72.51

This past week was a bullish one for both the drug sector and the biotech sector. Yet the rally could not push AGN above resistance at the $72.00 level. AGN's failed rally under $72.00 also reinforces the descending trendline of resistance dating back to January. This looks like a new bearish entry point but keep in mind we're only targeting a move to the $67.50 level.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May puts.

BUY PUT MAY 75.00 AGN-QO OI= 74 current ask $5.10
BUY PUT MAY 70.00 AGN-QN OI=2074 current ask $2.15

Picked on March 13 at $ 73.09
Change since picked: - 2.47
Earnings Date 04/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 777 thousand

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Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 48.04 chg: -1.28 stop: 51.51*new*

Target achieved! BZH dipped to $47.77 on Friday as investors continue to worry about the affects of higher interest and higher mortgage rates on homebuilders' profits. Our target has been the $48.00-46.50 range. We suggest traders exit here to close the play. However, if you're feeling a little aggressive (and we are) we're going to hold on for another day. The Dow Industrials and the DJUSHB index both look like they could trade lower early next week. We're going to hold out for a drop towards the lower end of our target range. If you haven't exited yet be prepared to exit. We're tightening our stop loss to $51.51.

Suggested options:
We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Picked on March 17 at $ 51.43
Change since picked: - 3.39
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 742 thousand

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Intl Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 87.60 chg: -0.84 stop 92.15

Time is running low for our put play in IBM. Fortunately for us the stock is drifting lower as well. Shares really under performed the markets all week with a new breakdown under the 200-dma and the $90.00 level and new five-month lows. The good news is that the Industrials look vulnerable to more selling early next week. This should help IBM even more toward our goal at the $85.00 level. The bad news is that IBM already looks short-term oversold with losses five out of the last six sessions. Be prepared for a possible bounce toward the $89-90 level again. Yet also be aware that we plan to exit this play on Friday, April 15th to avoid earnings on Monday the 18th.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Picked on March 17 at $ 89.86
Change since picked: - 2.26
Earnings Date 04/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million

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Mcgraw Hill Cos - MHP - close: 86.04 chg: 0.00 stop: 88.51

MHP creeps ever closer to our target in the $85.00-84.00 range. The four-week trend of lower highs certainly suggests that MHP will breakdown to new lows. We are not suggesting new bearish plays at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early near the exponential 200-dma at $85.30.

Suggested options:
We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Picked on March 15 at $ 88.40
Change since picked: - 2.36
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 751 thousand

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Pacificare Health - PHS - cls: 57.50 chg: -2.15 stop: 60.05

Good news! The market sell-off on Friday helped spark a failed rally in PHS at the $60.00 resistance level. This looks like a new bearish entry point. Short-term oscillators have reversed course and the stock closed under its simple 100-dma. Bear in mind that our target is the $55.00-54.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May puts.

BUY PUT MAY 60.00 PHS-QL OI=2365 current ask $4.20
BUY PUT MAY 55.00 PHS-QK OI= 946 current ask $1.75

Picked on March 20 at $ 59.04
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - cls: 63.13 chg: -1.86 stop: 68.05 *new*

Gambling-related stocks have turned in a mixed performance this past week. Yet WYNN continues to look bearish following its breakdown under the 100-dma on April 1st. Thursday produced a failed rally at the 100-dma and 10-dma together and Friday's follow through lower looks like a new bearish entry point. We are targeting a drop toward the $60.00 level but we are planning to exit the play at $60.50. Please note that we're lowering the stop loss to $68.05.

Suggested Options:
We are suggesting the May puts.

BUY PUT MAY 65.00 UWY-QM OI=986 current ask $4.90
BUY PUT MAY 60.00 UWY-QL OI=938 current ask $2.60

Picked on April 03 at $ 66.04
Change since picked: - 2.91
Earnings Date 04/29/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

MGM Mirage - MGG - close: 72.87 chg: 0.36 stop: 72.51

We are running out of time on the MGG play. The company is due to report earnings on Tuesday, April 19th and we do not want to hold over the event. The sudden show of strength on Thursday-Friday this week has eroded our hopes for a breakdown under support near $69.00. MGG never hit our entry point so we are closing the play unopened.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 997 thousand
 

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