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Call Updates

Avalonbay - AVB - close: 72.35 change: +0.53 stop: 68.49 *new*

A big bounce in the Dow helped boost shares of AVB above the $72.00 level. AVB continues to show strength with a slow and steady climb higher. We see no changes in our strategy although we are raising the stop loss from 67.49 to 68.49.

Picked on April 24 at $ 70.05
Change since picked: + 2.30
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 345 thousand

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Chubb Corp - CB - close: 84.80 chg: +2.23 stop: 79.49 *new*

Wow! CB soared to a 2.7 percent gain on strong volume today. A big day for the Dow and strong earnings news from insurer Cigna (CI) attributed to the positive session. We are raising the stop loss to $79.49. Short-term or conservative players might want to consider taking a little money off the table here. CB is a little overbought and we should expect a dip toward the $83 region before further gains. Then again CB closed near its highs for the day which is normally a bullish sign for tomorrow. Our target remains the $88-90 range.

Picked on May 01 at $ 81.78
Change since picked: + 3.02
Earnings Date 04/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Golden West Fincl - GDW - close: 64.46 chg: +0.61 stop: 59.95

The four-day winning streak for the Dow Industrials has been very beneficial for the banking stocks. Today's session could be very important as well. Both the BIX and BKX bank indices broke through technical resistance at their 200-dma's. Both also appear to be on the verge of breaking through the tops of their descending channels. This all bodes well for GDW, which closed at a new relative high. Our target remains at the $66.50 level.

Picked on April 26 at $ 62.55
Change since picked: + 1.91
Earnings Date 04/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Invitrogen - IVGN - close: 75.74 change: +0.54 stop: 71.49

IVGN continues to look positive and closed above round-number, psychological resistance at the $75.00 level for the second day in a row. We see no change from our previous update on 05/03/05.

Picked on May 03 at $ 75.51
Change since picked: + 0.23
Earnings Date 04/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 888 thousand

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Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 60.26 change: +0.51 stop: 57.49

LLY's gain today has triggered the play. Our entry point to buy calls was at $60.15. This is a new six-month high for LLY as it breaks out over resistance at the $60.00 mark. There are no changes in strategy from our previous update on 05/03/05.

Picked on May 04 at $ 60.15
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 04/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.7 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 52.70 chg: +1.55 stop: 49.95

We are rally tempted to go long here. NUE's three-percent rally pushed the stock above its 10-dma and above its six-week trendline of resistance. Yet in spite of the bounce we're going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the breakout over stronger resistance at the $55.00 level. Our entry point is $55.05. More aggressive players might want to consider bullish positions now after today's move and its new MACD buy signal.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
 

Put Updates

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 57.55 chg: +0.26 stop: 60.01 *new*

The good news here is that for the most part ADBE did not participate in today's market rally. Instead we can see a small double-top if we look at the intraday chart. ADBE failed to breakout over the $58.20 level twice during Wednesday's session. Of course this only matters for very short-term intraday traders but it's still a bearish signal for the rest of us. We are lowering the stop loss to $60.01.

Picked on April 26 at $ 59.12
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 06/16/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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CDW Corp - CDWC - close: 55.50 chg: +0.71 stop: 58.01

CDWC did manage to bounce with today's market rally but we see no change in strategy or from our previous update on 05/01/05.

Picked on April 24 at $ 55.68
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 04/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 920 thousand

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Infosys Tech. - INFY - close: 59.55 chg: +1.54 stop: 60.26*new*

Buckle your seat belt and double-check your stop loss. Yesterday we said today was an important session because both the NASDAQ and the GSO software index were testing short-term resistance levels. The bounce in the software index wasn't that impressive but the NASDAQ rallied right to its resistance level and looks poised to breakout. Likewise shares of INFY rallied right to resistance near the $60.00 mark and also looks poised to breakout. The new buy signal in INFY's MACD indicator doesn't help matters if you're bearish. More conservative traders may want to exit early to avoid further losses. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $60.26. If INFY continues to rally we want to be taken out quickly. Traders can always reconsider new plays if the stock reverses at its 200-dma.

Picked on April 26 at $ 58.24
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 04/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 504 thousand

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 90.50 chg: +2.60 stop: 94.05

No surprises here. A big day for the Dow and the banking stocks helped push the XBD broker-dealer index to an even bigger bounce of +3.6 percent. LEH added almost three percent but failed to close above its 100-dma. Shares remain in its new three-week down trend and we're not going to worry until LEH trades above the $92 level.

Picked on April 29 at $ 89.45
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 03/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Marriot - MAR - close: 62.10 chg: +1.23 stop: 65.01

We warned readers yesterday that MAR was oversold and due for a bounce. With the major averages strongly in the green MAR was still slow to follow and didn't really rally until the late afternoon. We expect the $63.00 region to act as short-term resistance.

Picked on April 28 at $ 63.37
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 04/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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PACCAR Inc - PCAR - close: 67.12 change: +1.39 stop: 70.01

No change from our previous update on 05/03/05. However, if PCAR trades above the $68.00 level we might consider exiting early.

Picked on April 27 at $ 66.45
Change since picked: + 0.67
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 61.61 change: +1.52 stop: 62.01

PH outpaced the market bounce today with a 2.5 percent bounce of its own. Yet the stock remains under strong resistance at the $62.00 level. This is another important test of this six-week old resistance level. We would expect that if the major averages produce any kind of follow through on today's rally that PH will be able to breakout and thus we'll be stopped out. If you squint your eyes a bit when you look at the chart is almost looks like an inverse or bullish head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakout over $62 would be the neckline and thus project a $65-66 price target. We're not suggesting new bearish plays at this time.

Picked on April 28 at $ 59.08
Change since picked: + 2.53
Earnings Date 04/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

Dropped Calls

Websense - WBSN - close: 52.64 chg: +0.53 stop: 49.49

WBSN's lack of participation in today's very broad market rally has our spider-sense tingling. We're going to exit early since there are other stocks that are on the move we could play.

Picked on April 27 at $ 52.85
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 04/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 751 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Strayer Education - STRA - cls: 84.61 chg: -18.80 stop: 107.25

Wow! When we labeled this play as "exciting" last night we didn't know how exciting. Unfortunately, we never got to open any positions. We suspected there was some concern over STRA's earnings report but we certainly didn't expect an 18 percent drop! The company reported earnings this morning before the bell and beat estimates by a penny. Yet management issued an earnings warning for the second quarter. STRA gapped down to open at $85.50 and then sold off to hit $77.24 before bouncing back in the afternoon. Our strategy was to buy puts if STRA traded below $101.95 but to not open positions if STRA gapped open below the $100 level. Now just imagine if you had been holding a bullish position over STRA's earnings. This is a great example of why we do not hold over an earnings report. We are closing this play unopened.

Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 111 thousand
 

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