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Call Updates

Chubb Corp - CB - close: 85.45 change: -1.18 stop: 83.49 *new*

CB is holding up relatively well during the market pull back today but we are concerned about the major averages. If the DJIA breaks down under the 10,250 level and/or if the S&P 500 breaks down under the 1190-1188 region then it could signal a new trend lower and CB will likely follow. We are not suggesting new bullish positions in CB at this time. We are going to raise our stop loss to $83.49, just under the simple 50-dma. 

Picked on June 10 at $ 85.05 
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million 

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Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 46.76 chg: -0.73 stop: 46.49 

Defense stocks were weak today along with most of the market and COL was no exception. Today's 1.5 percent decline under the $47.00 level and its 100-dma could spell very bad news for COL bulls here. We were almost stopped out today and if the broader averages show any weakness tomorrow we'd expect COL to hit our stop loss at $46.49 tomorrow. Conservative types may want to exit immediately.

Picked on June 27 at $ 46.75
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 800 thousand 

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Cummins Inc - CMI - close: 74.76 change: -0.09 stop: 72.99 *new*

CMI is showing some relative strength today with a minor 9-cent decline. However, if the major indices keep declining we see CMI as a target for profit taking. The MACD indicator for CMI already looks poised to turn lower. The first level of defense is the simple 200-dma near $73.44 but we would not count on this holding if the SPX breaks the 1188 level. We are raising our stop loss to $72.99. 

Picked on June 19 at $ 74.03
Change since picked: + 0.73
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 970 thousand 

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Coventry Hlth Care - CVH - cls: 73.33 chg: +0.49 stop: 68.99 *new*

News that UnitedHealth (UNH) was buying Pacifichealthcare (PHS) sent the health insurance sector higher. CVH hit an intraday high of $75.56 before pulling back. Looking at the intraday chart we see that traders bought the dip to the $72.00 level late this afternoon. This could be a new bullish entry point but we'd probably hesitate to open new long positions if the major indices are declining. We are raising the stop loss to $68.99.

Picked on July 05 at $ 72.75
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 08/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million 

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Fording Candn Coal - FDG - cls: 93.62 chg: +0.27 stop: 89.49 *new*

FDG appears to be in a no-man's land with the stock churning sideways in a narrow range. Readers might want to watch for a bounce from the $92.00 level as a new bullish entry point. We are raising the stop loss to $89.49. 

Picked on June 19 at $ 90.30
Change since picked: + 3.32
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 384 thousand 

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Fortune Brands - FO - close: 90.53 chg: -1.45 stop: 86.95

Today's decline completely erased yesterday's gains. We do see that traders bought the dip to $90.00 late this afternoon. This could be a new bullish entry point but we would hesitate to open new positions if the major indices keep declining tomorrow. 

Picked on July 03 at $ 90.51
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 07/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 648 thousand 

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 78.13 chg: -0.72 stop: 73.99

Wednesday was somewhat of a volatile day for NBL. The stock tried to breakout over the $80 level but failed. Even the new high in crude oil could help push NBL higher with the rest of the market falling. We suspect that NBL could retrace back to the $76 level before moving higher. Be patient and watch for the bounce. 

Picked on July 05 at $ 78.15
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million 

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Quanex - NX - close: 54.39 change: -0.18 stop: 52.45

No change from our previous update. Our plan is to buy a breakout over resistance at the $55.00 level. Our suggested entry point is $55.10. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 337 thousand 


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Rio Tinto - RTP - close: 126.85 chg: +2.43 stop: 121.49 *new*

An upgrade to "buy" from Merrill Lynch helped launch RTP higher on Wednesday. The stock added 1.95 percent on above average volume. We do note that the rally did stall near its simple 100-dma. We probably wouldn't suggest new positions here as RTP may be tempted to fill this morning's gap before moving higher. Our target remains unchanged in the $129.50-130.00 range. We are raising our stop loss to $121.49. 

Picked on June 27 at $123.33
Change since picked: + 3.52
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 160 thousand 

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SLM Corp - SLM - close: 49.47 change: -0.42 stop: 48.95

We are growing more concerned over SLM. Today's market decline didn't help and the stock is now testing its lows from last week. There is additional support at the 200-dma near $49.25 but if the DJIA breaks down under the 10,250 level or the S&P 500 trades under the 1188 level we would expect SLM to continue lower. 

Picked on June 20 at $ 50.92
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million 

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Sunoco Inc - SUN - close: 118.56 chg: -2.53 stop: 114.49 

Oil's new all-time high was not enough to protect the oil-related stocks from a sell-off with the rest of the market. SUN lost two percent and the lion's share of yesterday's gains. On a sour note today's session produced a bearish engulfing candlestick, which is normally seen as a bearish reversal pattern. We would expect a dip back toward the $118.00 level and maybe down to the $116 level before SUN turns higher. Watch for the rebound before initiating any new bullish positions. 

Picked on July 03 at $117.87
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million 

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Molson Coors - TAP - close: 60.31 chg: -0.66 stop: 59.49

We've been discussing a pull back to the $60.00 level and now TAP has provided one. Watch for a rebound from this level as a new bullish entry point. However, if the major averages keep declining we'd hesitate to open new plays. 

Picked on June 29 at $ 61.38
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 909 thousand 

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Wellpoint Inc - WLP - close: 69.87 chg: -0.48 stop: 67.49 *new*

News of a merger between UNH and PHS sparked strength across the health insurer sector but WLP was unable to hold its gains. We are not suggesting new bullish plays here. Instead we're raising our stop loss to $67.49. 

Picked on June 05 at $ 68.40
Change since picked: + 1.47 
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million

Put Updates

BodyAmbac Fincl. - ABK - close: 69.64 chg: -1.12 stop: 71.51

The market weakness today is good news for bears in ABK. The stock is back under round-number support/resistance at the $70.00 level. Shares also traded under the $69.65 mark where we have been suggesting new put positions. Our target is the $65.50-65.00 range.

Picked on June 26 at $ 69.62
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 992 thousand 

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 44.91 chg: +0.54 stop: 45.76

It's time to go to red alert here! The semiconductor sector bucked the downtrend across the rest of the market and added more than one percent today. KLAC out performed its peers and added 1.2 percent to breakout back above its simple 200-dma. This could be bad news for bears like us. We do note that the rally did pause at minor resistance near $45.40. We're not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders may want to exit early. If KLAC reverses and trades back under $44.00 we might consider new positions then. 

Picked on June 29 at $ 43.88
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.4 million 

Dropped Calls

None

Dropped Puts

ESCO Tech. - ESE - close: 101.00 chg: -0.41 stop: 101.65 

Early strength on Wednesday morning sent ESE through our stop loss at $101.65 and closed the play. This was an aggressive, higher-risk play from the beginning. While we have been stopped out readers may want to keep an eye on it now that the major averages are starting to show weakness again.

Picked on June 26 at $ 97.80
Change since picked: + 3.20
Earnings Date 08/10/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 102 thousand 

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