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Call Updates

Chubb Corp - CB - close: 86.75 change: +0.16 stop: 83.99

We are a little disappointed that CB didn't perform better on Thursday. We think the market looks extended and due for a pull back. Bulls in CB can probably expect a pull back toward the bottom of its trading range (rising channel) near $85.00.

Picked on June 10 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: + 1.70
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Coventry Hlth Care - CVH - cls: 70.84 chg: -0.85 stop: 69.49

CVH has pulled back toward support at the $70.00 region and its simple 40 and 50-dma's. Normally this might be a bullish entry point to buy the dip. We suspect that the risks are rising for bullish traders. The major indices, while strong this past week, are looking pretty short-term overbought and extended. A pull back in the major averages might spark a stronger sell-off in the health care insurers who have been underperforming the last few days. We are not suggesting new plays at this time and more conservative traders may want to consider exiting or tightening their stops.

Picked on July 05 at $ 72.75
Change since picked: - 1.91
Earnings Date 08/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Fortune Brands - FO - close: 94.08 chg: +0.63 stop: 89.95

FO appears to be coiling for a breakout over resistance at the $94.50 level. We remain positive on the stock but worry a pull back in the major indices, which would be normal, could take FO back toward the $92 even $91 levels. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table here. In the news FO confirmed that it will report Q2 earnings on July 22nd. Our target is the $95.00-96.00 range.

Picked on July 03 at $ 90.51
Change since picked: + 3.57
Earnings Date 07/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 648 thousand

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Intuit - INTU - close: 48.86 chg: +0.16 stop: 44.90

INTU came within 25 cents of hitting the bottom edge of our target range today ($49.50-50.00). The stock, like the NASDAQ, looks short-term overbought and extended and due for some consolidation. Short-term traders may not want to endure a pull back toward the 10-dma under $47.00 so consider taking some profits here.

Picked on July 07 at $ 46.51
Change since picked: + 2.35
Earnings Date 08/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Lowes Corp. - LOW - close: 62.90 chg: +0.70 stop: 56.90

LOW continues to show strength and the stock hit another all-time high today at $63.35. We remain positive but it's time to start looking for some consolidation, which would be normal. Our target is the $64.50-65.00 range.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.73
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 08/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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Quanex - NX - close: 55.94 change: -1.01 stop: 52.99

A little profit taking is normal. Watch for a bounce from the simple 10-dma near the $55.00 level. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range.

Picked on July 07 at $ 55.10
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 08/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 337 thousand

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Pediatrix Med Group - PDX - cls: 76.82 chg: +0.31 stop: 72.34

No change from our previous update on Monday. This continues to look like a bullish entry point although we might hesitate here. The major averages look over extended. Patient traders might get another chance to buy a dip in PDX near $76 or even $75. Our target is the $80.00-82.00 range.

Picked on July 11 at $ 76.10
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 158 thousand

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Reynolds American - RAI - close: 81.88 chg: +1.43 stop: 76.49

RAI is showing lots of strength today. Shares added another 1.77 percent to break through technical resistance at its 50 and 40-dma's. Volume came in slightly above average. RAI may have gotten an additional boost from positive news for larger rival Altria Group (MO). MO won a court case today regarding vending machines operators. Our target is the $84-85 range.

Picked on July 10 at $ 78.83
Change since picked: + 3.05
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 664 thousand

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Rio Tinto - RTP - close: 126.39 chg: -1.86 stop: 123.33

Ouch! Today's decline took a bite out of RTP's recent gains. We continue to target the $129.50-130.00 range but we're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on June 27 at $123.33
Change since picked: + 3.06
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 160 thousand

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 53.80 chg: -0.84 stop: 49.90

No change from our previous update on 07/12/05. Our target is the $57.50-60.00 range. A bounce from the $51.50-52.00 range could offer another bullish entry point.

Picked on July 10 at $ 51.98
Change since picked: + 1.82
Earnings Date 08/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
 

Put Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Cummins Inc - CMI - close: 78.98 change: +2.33 stop: 73.49

Target achieved. It was a very positive day for shares of CMI. The stock added just over three percent on average volume to hit new 5 1/2 month highs. Shares have now traded into our target range of $77.50-80.00. We are closing the play. We expect the $80 level to act as round-number resistance and CMI is looking a little extended here.

Picked on June 19 at $ 74.03
Change since picked: + 4.95
Earnings Date 07/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 970 thousand

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Noble Energy - NBL - close: 77.65 chg: -2.49 stop: 75.99

My how quickly a situation can change. We are turning very defensive on oil stocks at least for the short-term. News that China's oil consumption declined last quarter was a surprise. Plus, hurricane Emily doesn't appear to be threatening the U.S.' oil industry in the Gulf. This lead to a sharp decline in crude oil and prices of the oil stocks followed. We are exiting now to avoid further losses. We have no doubt that there will be additional opportunities in the future to play oil.

Picked on July 05 at $ 78.15
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Sunoco Inc - SUN - close: 117.82 chg: -3.40 stop: 114.99

We are exercising the same caution here as in NBL. The surprise drop in China's oil consumption and the rising odds that hurricane Emily won't be a factor for the U.S. oil industry are weighing on the oil sector. We're exiting SUN early to avoid further losses.

Picked on July 03 at $117.87
Change since picked: - 0.05
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Wellpoint Inc - WLP - close: 68.20 chg: -1.15 stop: 67.49

We are exercising caution here too. Yesterday we suggested that traders might want to exit if WLP dropped under minor support at the $68.75 mark. WLP did that and more today. Shares fell 1.65% and closed under technical support at its simple 50-dma. We're exiting now to avoid further losses.

Picked on June 05 at $ 68.40
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
 

Dropped Puts

None today.
 

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