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Call Updates

Chubb Corp - CB - close: 86.76 change: -0.21 stop: 84.40

Profit taking finally hit the markets today and we would expect it to continue short-term. That means CB is likely to retest the $85.00 level and technical support at its simple 50-dma. We are not suggesting new longs. More conservative traders may want to exit now as there is no guarantee CB will bounce before we exit ahead of its July 26th earnings report.

Picked on June 10 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: + 1.71
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Coventry Hlth Care - CVH - cls: 72.11 chg: +0.70 stop: 69.49

Healthcare stocks were one of the few sectors to close in the green today. CVH continued its rebound that began on Friday. This may be a potential new bullish entry point but we hesitate to suggest new longs if the broader market is going to pull back.

Picked on July 05 at $ 72.75
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 08/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Fortune Brands - FO - close: 94.63 chg: +1.30 stop: 90.51

Good news! FO displayed great relative strength today. The stock added 1.39 percent to breakout through the top of its five-day trading range. Shares are very close to our $95.00-96.00 price target. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider taking profits right here.

Picked on July 03 at $ 90.51
Change since picked: + 4.12
Earnings Date 07/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 648 thousand

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Quanex - NX - close: 55.94 change: -0.51 stop: 52.99

The early rally failed today. Watch for NX to pull back toward the $55.00 level or worse the $54.50 region to find support.

Picked on July 07 at $ 55.10
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 08/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 337 thousand

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Pediatrix Med Group - PDX - cls: 76.06 chg: -0.44 stop: 72.34

The market weakness today weighed on PDX. We would expect shares to retest the $75.00 level soon. We do not suggest new bullish plays at this time.

Picked on July 11 at $ 76.10
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 158 thousand

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Reynolds American - RAI - close: 81.90 chg: +0.12 stop: 76.49

RAI held up pretty well considering the news today. U.S. prosecutors asked the Supreme court to reinstate the potential penalty of $280 billion in the government's racketeering case against the industry. We would probably expect any further market weakness to pull RAI back toward the $80.00 region.

Picked on July 10 at $ 78.83
Change since picked: + 3.07
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 664 thousand

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Rio Tinto - RTP - close: 124.38 chg: -0.80 stop: 123.33

The initial gap down today brought RTP dangerously close to our stop loss but the play is alive but it looks like it's in intensive care. The stock does have price support in the $122 level and technical support at its 50-dma near $122.70. We really didn't want to see this play move from a winner to a loser so last week we raised the stop loss to break even at $123.33. There is still a chance that RTP could rebound as the stock is hovering near its two-month trendline of rising support but we are not suggesting new bullish plays at this time.


Picked on June 27 at $123.33
Change since picked: + 1.05
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 160 thousand

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Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 56.30 chg: +0.33 stop: 51.98 *new*

Homebuilder TOL continued to rally today and hit an intraday high of $57.15. That's pretty close to our target range of $57.50-60.00. We would suggest that more conservative traders seriously consider taking some profits here. The market indices are overbought and beginning to pull back. This could easily weigh on TOL, which itself is overbought. We are going to raise our stop loss to break even at $51.98.

Picked on July 10 at $ 51.98
Change since picked: + 4.31
Earnings Date 08/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
 

Put Updates

Ishares Global Energy - IXC - cls: 88.35 chg: -0.22 stop: 91.61

Crude oil continued to pull back after OPEC trimmed their forecast for demand by 150,000 barrels a day. We are targeting a move into the $85.25-85.00 range for IXC.

Picked on July 14 at $ 89.15
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 00/00/00
Average Daily Volume = 33 thousand

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Martin Marietta - MLM - cls: 68.58 chg: +0.42 stop: 70.51

So far we remain on the sidelines. We're suggesting that traders wait for a drop under the $68.00 level before buying puts on MLM. Our trigger is at $67.85. Our target is the $63-62 range.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 313 thousand

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Children's Place - PLCE - cls: 46.81 chg: -0.44 stop: 47.51

No change. We are still waiting for PLCE to breakdown under technical support at its 100-dma and price support at the $45.00 mark. Our trigger to buy puts is at $44.90. Our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/11/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 775 thousand

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Wellchoice - WC - close: 70.13 chg: +1.63 stop: 72.51

The healthcare stocks were one of the few sectors that closed in the green today. This may have inspired some bulls to buy the dip in shares of WC. The stock rallied back above the $70.00 level, which is a big warning flag for us. Now this is high-risk, aggressive play for us and the lack of follow through lower on last week's breakdown may be a signal for more conservative traders to exit this play early.

Picked on July 14 at $ 69.46
Change since picked: + 0.67
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 268 thousand
 

Dropped Calls

Lowes Corp. - LOW - close: 64.56 chg: +0.91 stop: 59.90

Target achieved. Retail stocks turned in a decent session in spite of the market weakness. Shares of LOW have not slowed down and powered right past the $64.00 level. Our target was the $64.50-65.00 range so we're closing the play.

Picked on July 11 at $ 60.73
Change since picked: + 3.83
Earnings Date 08/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None

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