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Call Updates

Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 90.67 chg: 0.77 stop: 86.99

Another new all-time high for crude oil pushed the oil sector higher. This lead APC to breakout over resistance in the $90.00-90.50 region and hit our trigger to buy calls at $90.51, opening the play. Short-term technicals are bullish and its MACD indicator is nearing a new buy signal. Our short-term target is the $94.75-95.00 range.

Picked on August 11 at $ 90.51
Change since picked: 0.16
Earnings Date 07/29/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Danaher - DHR - close: 56.31 chg: 0.48 stop: 53.99

Surprise, surprise the market displayed a lot of strength today and shares of DHR managed a rebound just as its MACD was producing a new sell signal. Looking more closely at DHR you'll see that today's gain actually break the short-term six-day trend of lower highs. This might be a new bullish entry point but we'd probably look for confirmation with a move over $56.50 first.

Picked on August 03 at $ 56.67
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
 

Put Updates

Best Buy Co - BBY - close: 48.68 chg: -0.55 stop: 52.51

The retail sectors was one of the very few sectors to close in the red today. BBY was helping lead the way lower with a 1.1% decline. Today's relative weakness is a good sign for the bears. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range but we are keeping a cautious eye on its rising 50-dma near $47.

Picked on August 08 at $ 49.31
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 09/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million

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Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 51.15 chg: -0.64 stop: 54.01

CCL is off to a good start. Today's relative weakness confirms yesterday's bearish reversal signal. We see no changes from yesterday's update. Our target is the $47.75-47.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Eastman Chemical - EMN - close: 53.79 chg: 0.90 stop: 56.01

EMN got caught up in the market's rally today and bounced back toward resistance at the $54.00 level. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops. We would suggest watching for a failed rally under $54.00 to be used as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on August 05 at $ 53.90
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 872 thousand

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Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 85.35 chg: 0.55 stop: 86.01

The bullish trading in the transportation sector is amazing when you consider that crude oil just hit another new high above $65 a barrel. FDX joined the crowd today and added another 0.6%. If FDX closes over the $86 level we'll close this play unopened. Currently we're still on the sidelines. Our suggested entry point is $82.99.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 37.39 chg: 0.37 stop: 40.51

There is no change from our previous update. Our target is the $35-34 range.

Picked on August 03 at $ 38.76
Change since picked: - 1.37
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Fannie Mae - FNM - close: 52.00 chg: -0.64 stop: 56.01*new*

Wow! FNM is even weaker than we expected. The stock failed to produce any sort of oversold bounce in spite of a very broad market rally and an analyst reiterating their buy rating on the stock. Shares are very close to our target in the $51.50-50.00 range but traders may want to seriously consider taking some profits right here. We are lowering the stop loss to $56.01.

Picked on July 27 at $ 56.49
Change since picked: - 4.49
Earnings Date 00/00/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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Google - GOOG - close: 284.05 chg: -1.63 stop: 300.01

Here we go! GOOG is showing relative weakness today with its failure to participate in the market's rally on Thursday. Furthermore the stock hit new eight weeks lows (again) and traded below our trigger to buy puts at $284.50. Now that the play is open traders need to double-check their stop placement. We're keeping ours at $300.01 since GOOG is known for being volatile. As a matter of fact we'd probably look for an oversold bounce, maybe as soon as tomorrow, back toward the $289-290 range. Traders who didn't open new positions today can watch for a failed rally under $290 (and its 50-dma) as a new bearish entry point. Remember, this is a very speculative, high-risk play. Our target is the $255.00-250.00 range.

Picked on August 11 at $284.50
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 73.57 chg: 2.46 stop: 72.51

KOSP is a new bearish candidate from the Wednesday night newsletter. It looks like shares got caught up in the market rally today and bounced from yesterday's late day test of the $70.00 level. That's okay with us since we're still sitting on the sidelines waiting for KOSP to confirm the recent sell signal. Our suggested entry point to buy puts is at $68.25.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 106.37 chg: 1.74 stop: 107.01

Uh-oh! Bears need to be careful here. LEH managed to breakout over the $106 level late in the afternoon. We are now in danger of being stopped out. If the broader market continues to rally at all tomorrow we wouldn't be surprised to see LEH trade above the $107 mark. While that would stop us out of the play remember this is a highly speculative trade and you the reader may want to consider holding those August $100 puts in case the market, and LEH, turn lower again next week.

Picked on July 21 at $105.13
Change since picked: 1.24
Earnings Date 06/14/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 72.36 change: 0.36 stop: 75.11

We see no change from our previous update. Our target is the $70-68 range.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 1.93
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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Neurocrine Bio. - NBIX - cls: 45.97 chg: 0.53 stop: 49.11

We see no change from our previous update. Our target is the $43.00-42.00 range.

Picked on August 07 at $ 47.30
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 08/03/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 543 thousand
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Aetna - AET - close: 78.10 chg: 1.11 stop: 79.01

Strength in the markets and more specifically strength in healthcare really helped drag shares of AET higher. The stock didn't breakout over the $79.00 level until late this afternoon. The move over $79.00 did hit our stop loss closing the play. This now appears to be a short-term double-bottom near the $75.00 level and traders might want to consider bullish positions if AET can breakout over heavier resistance at the $80.00 mark, bolstered by its 50-dma.

Picked on August 07 at $ 75.55
Change since picked: 2.55
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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CR Bard - BCR - close: 65.37 chg: 2.03 stop: 65.51

Thank you, Smith Barney! The analyst firm upgraded BCR before the opening bell claiming the stock looked under value and is now a "buy" with a $73 price target. This pushed BCR to gap higher opening at $65.00 and eventually trading through our stop loss at $65.51. While we have been stopped out it's worth noting that BCR's three-month trend of lower highs is still intact and BCR is still under technical resistance at its 200-dma and 50-dma.

Picked on August 03 at $ 64.45
Change since picked: 0.92
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 553 thousand

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MicroStrategy - MSTR - close: 77.13 chg: 2.02 stop: 77.51

We almost made it. MSTR was showing strength most of the day with the markets bouncing higher but it wasn't until the last 30 minutes of trading that MSTR spiked higher. It was that spike to $77.75 that stopped us out of the play (at 77.51). MSTR is living up to our concerns for volatile and it's why we labeled this an aggressive, high-risk play. We suspect that MSTR may still fill the gap and traders might want to watch for a failed rally at the $80.00 level.

Picked on August 05 at $ 74.95
Change since picked: 2.18
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 570 thousand
 

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