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Call Updates

Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 87.15 chg: +1.48 stop: 81.99

A new record high for crude oil undermined the broader market but it powered a new rebound in the oil stocks. Shares of KMG added 1.7%. It didn't hurt that KMG issued a positive conference call saying its Q3 and full year production is on target. Our short-term target is the $89.50-90.00 range.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: + 1.16
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Sierra Health Svs. - SIE - cls: 68.05 chg: -0.19 stop: 66.95

We remain on the sidelines with SIE. Our strategy is to use a trigger to buy calls on a breakout over resistance at $70.00 and its simple 50-dma. Our entry point will be $70.11. If triggered our target is the $75.00-75.25 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/25/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 426 thousand

Put Updates

Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 50.33 chg: -1.00 stop: 52.51

CCL has executed a perfect failed rally under its simple 21-dma near the $51.50 level. This looks like a new entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $47.75-47.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 1.46
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Federated Dept. Stores - FD - cls: 70.72 chg: -1.07 stop: 75.75

Retail giant FD continues to show weakness. The stock lost 1.49% to under perform its peers in the RLX index, which lost 1.07%. We do expect a bounce near the $70 level, bolstered by its 100-dma. Look for the $72.00-72.50 region to act as resistance. Our target is the $67-65 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 1.27
Earnings Date 08/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 82.38 chg: -0.13 stop: 86.01

There was an initial rebound this morning but the bounce stalled at midday and FDX gave it all back. Today's failed rally looks like another entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $76-75 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 39.55 chg: +1.35 stop: 40.01

Uh-oh! FFIV's rebound is gaining strength. The stock actually displayed a lot of strength today adding 3.5% on above average volume. Oddly enough we can't find any news to support this rebound. FFIV is really out performing its peers today. JNPR is going sideways and CSCO is breaking down to new relative lows. Our stop loss is at $40.01. At this point we expect to be stopped out tomorrow.

Picked on August 03 at $ 38.76
Change since picked: + 0.79
Earnings Date 07/20/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Google - GOOG - close: 282.57 chg: +2.99 stop: 290.51

GOOG displayed some relative strength today adding just over one percent to breakout over its simple 10-dma. It would appear that the move was fueled by yesterday's news over its Google Talk feature yet to be launched. We're concerned over today's move above its 10-dma. Our stop loss is at $290.51 but more conservative traders might want to adjust their stops closer to $286.50. The five-week trend of lower highs is still intact.

Picked on August 11 at $284.50
Change since picked: - 1.93
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 77.30 chg: -0.55 stop: 80.61

Wow! It was getting down to the wire. Yesterday we said that if IR didn't hit our trigger at $77.49 today we were closing the play. Well sure enough with today's market weakness shares of IR joined the crowd continued lower. The play is now open. Today's decline should confirm yesterday's bearish breakdown under its simple 200-dma. Technical indicators are bearish. We want to see IR trade toward the $72.50 region but we only have six trading days left. We will close the play on Thursday, September 1st to avoid holding over the September 2nd stock split. You, the reader, may want to choose to hold over the split as sometimes stocks can experience a post-split depression.

Picked on August 24 at $ 77.49
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Illinois Tool Works - ITW - cls: 84.54 chg: -0.51 stop: 87.35

There is no change from our previous update on ITW. We would still consider new bearish positions here. Our target is the $80.25-80.00 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 69.65 chg: +1.18 stop: 72.51

KOSP displayed a bit of a bounce today. The good news is that the bounce failed to close over the $70.00 level. The bad news is that the intraday chart shows KOSP poised to move higher. Watch for the $72 level to act as overhead resistance.

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: + 1.40
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 71.32 change: +0.33 stop: 74.46

MMM hit new 18-month lows this morning before bulls bought the dip near $70.44. We're not suggesting new plays here. Our target is the $70.00-68.00 range but traders may want to consider exiting early between $70.50 and $70.00.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 2.97
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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Simon Prpty Grp - SPG - close: 75.68 chg: +0.07 stop: 77.26

Maybe now SPG is ready to turn lower. The stock surged higher this morning to $76.74 and then turned lower. This was a failed rally at its simple 21-dma. More aggressive traders may want to initiate players here. We would wait for SPG to trade under the $74.75 level first. Our target is the $70.75-70.00 range near the 100-dma.

Picked on August 18 at $ 75.24
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 946 thousand

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United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 71.95 chg: -0.16 stop: 74.21

UPS, like its rival FDX, rallied this morning but the bounce failed midday and the stock gave it all back. This looks like a new entry point to buy puts but more conservative traders may want to wait for UPS to trade under $71.80 before initiating positions. Our target is the $68-67 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 0.04
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 47.39 chg: -0.45 stop: 54.01

There is no change from our previous update on WYNN. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range.

Picked on August 19 at $ 49.95
Change since picked: - 2.47
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Calls

None Today.

Dropped Puts

Best Buy Co - BBY - close: 45.44 chg: -1.53 stop: 51.01

Target achieved. BBY got whacked today with a 3.25% decline on above average volume. The stock really under performed its peers and the broader market. Our target was the $45.50-45.00 range so we're closing the play. The $45 level looks like historical price and psychological support.

Picked on August 08 at $ 49.31
Change since picked: - 3.87
Earnings Date 09/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million

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Building Materials - BMHC - cls: 75.40 chg: +1.85 stop: 75.01

This morning's better than expected new home sales numbers sent shares of BMHC soaring at the open. The stock broke through resistance at its 50-dma and the $75.00 level to stop us out at $75.01.

Picked on August 16 at $ 71.33
Change since picked: + 4.07
Earnings Date 07/26/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 289 thousand
 

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