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Call Updates

Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 85.49 chg: -0.53 stop: 81.99

Crude oil and oil stocks closed well off their highs for the session. As one reporter put it, Hurricane Katrina's bark was a lot worse than its bite, at least given the initial reports. Looking more closely at shares of KMG we see that the stock failed yet again at resistance near $88.00. The more KMG fails at the $88 level the bigger the breakout will be if KMG does breakout to the upside. Right now we're growing a bit cautious here. We're not suggesting new plays. More conservative traders may want to move their stop loss toward the $84 level, which is short-term support.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: - 0.50
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 95.37 change: -0.08 stop: 97.75

AZO did manage to hit a new relative low near the opening bell but glancing at the intraday chart you'll notice that the stock has produced a quick double-bottom near the $94 level. We suspect there will be some follow through tomorrow and AZO could rally back towards the simple 50-dma, which is resistance near $97. For more information see our previous update in the weekend newsletter.

Picked on August 28 at $ 95.45
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand


Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 50.01 chg: +0.36 stop: 52.01

Uh-oh! Put traders need to double-check their stop losses. The action in CCL today might suggest a potential new bottom. The stock traded lower at the open but buyers appeared near $49.00 right at the August 17th low. This is starting to look like a double-bottom pattern. We're not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders might want to ratchet down their stop loss to either 51.51 or 51.26.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 1.69
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million


CDW Corp - CDWC - close: 60.15 chg: +0.71 stop: 62.01

CDWC got a bounce back above round-number resistance at the $60.00 mark and technical resistance at its 50-dma (59.96) and its 200-dma (60.02). This is potentially bad news for the bears but right now we're still sitting on the sidelines. Our strategy is to buy puts only if CDWC trades at or below our trigger at $58.99.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 867 thousand


Federated Dept. Stores - FD - cls: 70.66 chg: +0.16 stop: 75.01

We have been predicting a bounce from the $70 level and/or its simple 100-dma so today's action is not a surprise. What's encouraging is that the trend of lower highs remains intact. The bounce may not be over yet. Look for resistance in the $72.00-72.50 region. Our target is the $67-65 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 08/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million


Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 82.20 chg: +0.52 stop: 86.01

Transport stocks got a bit of a boost today as crude oil was unable to hold on to its highs. This helped FDX to a minor bounce. We remain bearish and a failed rally under $83.00 could be used as a new entry point to buy puts.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million


Google - GOOG - close: 288.45 chg: +4.87 stop: 290.51

It's time to go to red alert if you own puts on GOOG. The stock displayed a lot of strength today adding 1.7% and appearing to breakout above its five-week trend of lower highs. There is still round-number resistance at $290 and technical resistance at the 50-dma near $292. Yet somehow we suspect that if the market is at all bullish tomorrow that GOOG will push through the $290 level and stop us out at $290.51. It's probably time to exit bearish positions at your earlier convenience.

Picked on August 11 at $284.50
Change since picked: + 3.95
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million


Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 77.64 chg: +0.31 stop: 80.01

IR remains under its simple 200-dma. If shares trade above the $79.00 level then we'll start to worry. Remember, we plan on exiting this play on Thursday, September 1st near the closing bell to avoid holding over the 2-for-1 stock split.

Picked on August 24 at $ 77.49
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million


Illinois Tool Works - ITW - cls: 84.41 chg: +0.62 stop: 87.35

ITW produced an oversold bounce today. We would watch for a failed rally in the $85.00-85.50 range as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $80.25-80.00 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 67.98 chg: -0.86 stop: 72.51

Biotech stocks turned in a strong performance lead by biotech titans like DNA and AMGN. Shares of KOSP did not participate in the market or sector's bounce today. That's good news for put holders. Our target is the $63-62 range but we'll adjust this as needed based on the 100-dma.

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand


3M Co. - MMM - close: 71.08 change: +0.09 stop: 73.01

MMM did not participate in the bounce today and that bodes well for bears. Our target is the $70.00 level although more conservative traders might want to exit in the $70.50-70.00 range. The low today was $70.41.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 3.21
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million


Simon Prpty Grp - SPG - close: 74.33 chg: -0.29 stop: 77.01

SPG hit new two-week lows today but managed to bounce from its worst levels of the session. Readers can watch for a failed rally under the $75.00 mark as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $71.50-70.50 range near its 100-dma.

Picked on August 18 at $ 75.24
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 946 thousand


United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 71.20 chg: -0.13 stop: 74.21

UPS, like its rival FDX, sank at the open but unlike FDX, shares of UPS failed to return to positive territory. The stock remains under its simple 50-dma. The P&F chart currently points to a $56 target but we are targeting the $68-67 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 48.15 chg: +0.14 stop: 52.01

There is no change from our weekend update on WYNN. A failed rally near its 10-dma could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $45.25-45.00 range.

Picked on August 19 at $ 49.95
Change since picked: - 1.70
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

Dropped Calls

None Today.

Dropped Puts

None Today.

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