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Call Updates

Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 87.06 chg: +1.57 stop: 81.99

As Wall Street began to understand the amount of devastation that Hurricane Katrina actually did to the gulf coast and the oil infrastructure there the price of crude oil hit a new high at $70.85 a barrel. The U.S. Minerals Management Service said that 95 percent of U.S. oil and natural gas production in the gulf has been shut down. This sent oil stocks back toward their highs. Yet talk of the President approving a release from the Strategic Oil Reserve probably slowed the advance in oil stocks but crude still closed above $70. Meanwhile shares of KMG jumped 1.8% but remains under resistance at the $88.00 level. The company issued a press release stating that they have already opened their western oil platforms in the Gulf as they survived the brunt of the storm. We are strongly considering a change in our target price. The way things are shaping up with oil production and refining shut down in the gulf oil stocks could be strong for a while yet. We're going to suggest that readers consider selling half their position at our initial target of $89.50-90.00 and then the second half in the $92.00-92.50 region. Keep in mind that the strategic oil reserve remains an unknown variable. We do not know if the government will release oil from it, how soon, or how much. We do not know how Wall Street will react to the news. We suspect there will be a negligible amount released from the reserve and we're not expecting any sort of sell-off in oil stocks on the announcement.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: + 1.07
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 93.90 change: -1.47 stop: 97.75

Retail stocks were hit hard today with the RLX index down 1.67%. The markets are concerned about the rising price of fuel and its affects on the consumer. Plus, the hurricane's impact on store closures and lost sales are another worry. Shares of AZO dipped to $92.95 before bouncing. Look for the $96 level to act as short-term resistance in its current trend of lower highs. Our target is the 91.25-91.00 range near its simple 200-dma.

Picked on August 28 at $ 95.45
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand


Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 49.09 chg: -1.01 stop: 52.01

Good news! CCL reversed yesterday's bounce and hit new lows today before a late day rebound. Shares lost just over two percent on above average volume, which should suggest more weakness ahead. Our target is the $47.75-47.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 2.70
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million


CDW Corp - CDWC - close: 59.59 chg: -0.56 stop: 62.01

CDWC tried to rally at the open but failed under its current trendline of lower highs. The stock closed back under round-number support at the $60.00 mark and under technical resistance at its 50-dma and 200-dma. We are waiting for CDWC to hit our trigger to buy puts at $58.99.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 867 thousand


Federated Dept. Stores - FD - cls: 69.48 chg: -1.05 stop: 75.01

Shares of retail giant FD lost ground today and slipped under support at the $70.00 level and its simple 100-dma as investors sold off the retail sector. As mentioned earlier Wall Street is concerned over how rising fuel prices will impact consumers spending money. Technically speaking today's breakdown came on above average volume, which is not generally a positive sign. However, the extra volume could be due to FD finally completing its $17 billion acquisition of May Department stores. According to FD's press release "May company shareholders as of the time of the merger on Aug. 30, 2005, will receive $17.75 in cash and 0.3115 shares of Federated common stock for each share of May Company common stock." Traders can look for the $70 level to begin acting as resistance. Our target is the $67-65 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 2.38
Earnings Date 08/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million


Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 81.37 chg: -0.83 stop: 86.01

Transport stocks were hit again as the price of crude oil hit new highs. Shares of FDX lost one percent mirroring the decline in the Dow Transportation index. We do expect a bounce once FDX touches round-number support near $80.00 but our target is the $76-75 range. Watch for the $83 region to act as overhead resistance.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 1.62
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million


Google - GOOG - close: 287.27 chg: -1.18 stop: 290.51

We are surprised that GOOG has not yet stopped us out. If not for the market's weakness today shares of GOOG probably would have broken through the $290 level. We are not suggesting new plays. Instead we're suggesting that traders exit to avoid further losses even though this is a high-risk, speculative play.

Picked on August 11 at $284.50
Change since picked: + 2.77
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million


Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 77.53 chg: -0.11 stop: 80.01

Time is running out for IR to produce any sort of follow through on its bearish breakdown. The stock failed to participate in the market's weakness today and that doesn't bode well for bears. Remember that we're planning to exit on Thursday at the close to avoid holding over the stock split.

Picked on August 24 at $ 77.49
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million


Illinois Tool Works - ITW - cls: 83.07 chg: -1.34 stop: 87.35

So far so good. ITW is trading lower from the top of its channel. Today's 1.58% decline put it back under its 50-dma. Our target is the $80.25-80.00 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 65.86 chg: -2.12 stop: 70.51*new*

We don't have any complaints here. Shares of KOSP under performed its peers and the broader market with a 3.11% decline on very strong volume. The stock actually hit an intraday low of $63.85. An oversold bounce back toward $68.00 might be used as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $63-62 range. We are lowering the stop loss to $70.51.

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 2.39
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand


3M Co. - MMM - close: 70.98 change: -0.10 stop: 72.25*new*

Hmm... shares of MMM don't appear to be going anywhere. The stock didn't react to the market bounce on Monday and it's not reacting to the market weakness today. That makes us cautious. Could MMM be trying to build a base here above the $70 level. Our target is $70.00 but we've been suggesting that traders consider an early exit in the $70.50-70.00 region. We're going to lower our stop loss to $72.25.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 3.31
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million


Simon Prpty Grp - SPG - close: 74.56 chg: +0.23 stop: 77.01

SPG seems to be having trouble producing any sort of bearish follow through on the recent breakdown. The stock has bounced twice from the $73.50 mark in the last two days. The overall pattern suggests more weakness ahead but readers should use caution considering new positions. Watch for the $75.00 level to act as overhead resistance. Our target is the $71.50-70.50 range near its 100-dma.

Picked on August 18 at $ 75.24
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 946 thousand


United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 70.42 chg: -0.78 stop: 74.21

UPS hit new relative lows today as investors sold off the transports with crude oil hitting new highs. We expected a bounce from the $70 level, which acts as round-number support. Now readers can watch for a bounce toward the 50-dma near $71.35. A failed rally there can be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $68-67 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 1.57
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 46.77 chg: -1.38 stop: 50.25 *new*

Shares of WYNN hit new three-month lows today (-2.8%) despite positive comments from Jim Cramer of Mad Money. The stock is approaching our target range in the $45.25-45.00 region. We're going to lower our stop loss to $50.25.

Picked on August 19 at $ 49.95
Change since picked: - 3.08
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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