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Call Updates

Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 88.03 chg: +1.02 stop: 83.90 *new*

As previously reported the administration did announce that it was opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to help alleviate shortages caused by Katrina. That didn't stop the rally in oil stocks and the OIX index added 2.17% while OSX services index added 3.5%. Shares of KMG climbed 1.17% and broke through three-week old resistance at the $88.00 mark. Per our comments yesterday we're suggesting that readers consider exiting half their position at our initial target of $89.50-90.00 and the second half of their position at $92.00-92.50. We are raising the stop loss to $83.90.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: + 2.09
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
 

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 94.50 change: +0.60 stop: 97.75

Retailers bounced higher with the rest of the market and AZO managed to under perform its peers in the sector. We're watching the simple 10-dma to act as overhead resistance. Our target is the 91.25-91.00 range near its simple 200-dma.

Picked on August 28 at $ 95.45
Change since picked: - 0.95
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand

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Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 49.34 chg: +0.25 stop: 52.01

While it's interesting that the Federal government is considering using cruise ships to evacuate people or use them as temporary emergency shelters for the damaged coast line we don't believe it's going to affect the share price of either CCL or RCL. The stock did not participate much in today's broad market bounce. Our target is the $47.75-47.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 2.45
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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CDW Corp - CDWC - close: 59.08 chg: -0.51 stop: 62.01

Heads up! CDWC under performed the market and its peers with a 0.85% decline on above average volume. The stock broke down under the $59 level and hit our trigger to buy puts at $58.99 thus opening the play. Shares did manage a bounce from its simple 100-dma but the intraday chart looks bearish. Our target is the $55.00-54.00 range.

Picked on August 31 at $ 58.99
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 867 thousand

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 57.28 change: +0.87 stop: 60.01

ERTS is a new play from the Tuesday night newsletter. Today's action looks like an oversold bounce and a failed rally under its simple 200-dma could be used as a new bearish entry point. For more details see our previous update. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 30 at $ 56.41
Change since picked: + 0.87
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Federated Dept. Stores - FD - cls: 68.98 chg: -0.50 stop: 73.51*new

We find it pretty interesting that FD did not bounce with the rest of the market or the retail sector today. The stock tried to bounce early on but it failed near the $70.00 level. Volume was pretty heavy today. Our target is the $67.00-65.00 range. We are lowering the stop loss to $73.51.

Picked on August 22 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 2.88
Earnings Date 08/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 81.44 chg: +0.07 stop: 86.01

The transportation sector index may have bounced today but shares of FDX failed to truly participate. The pattern remains bearish. We do expect a bounce once FDX touches round-number support near $80.00 but our target is the $76-75 range. Watch for the $83 region to act as overhead resistance.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Google - GOOG - close: 286.00 chg: -1.27 stop: 290.51

We are still surprised that GOOG has not yet stopped us out at $290.51. The lack of follow through on its bullish breakout over its multi-week trendline of resistance is shocking. The $290.00 level remains short-term overhead resistance. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Instead we're suggesting that traders exit bearish positions although by the look of GOOG's short-term technicals we might get lucky and get a chance to exit in the $280-284 region if the stock continues to slip.

Picked on August 11 at $284.50
Change since picked: + 1.50
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Illinois Tool Works - ITW - cls: 84.28 chg: +1.21 stop: 86.51*new

Traders need to turn defensive here on ITW. Positive broker comments this morning and a wave of buying pressure for anything remotely building or construction related helped push ITW back over the $84.00 level and its simple 50-dma. Investors bid up construction-related stocks assuming they'll benefit from the massive rebuilding following hurricane Katrina. We are not suggesting new plays and we're lowering the stop loss to $86.51.

Picked on August 23 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: - 0.77
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 68.05 chg: +2.19 stop: 70.51

Traders need to pay attention here with KOSP. The stock rallied sharply today adding 3.3% and reversing yesterday's sell-off. Short-term the stock is still in its bearish trend lower but KOSP is testing technical resistance at its simple 10-dma (now at 68.55). There is additional resistance at the 50-dma near $70.00 but what concerns us is the bullish breakout in the BTK biotech index today (+2.5%). Normally we might look for a failed rally under the 10-dma as a new entry point but right now we'd step back and just watch.

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 71.15 change: +0.17 stop: 72.01*new*

No change from our previous update on Tuesday. We're lowering the stop loss to $72.01. Our target is 70.00.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 3.14
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 70.89 chg: +0.47 stop: 74.21

There is no real change from our previous update on UPS. The transports managed a decent bounce but UPS under performed its peers. Readers can watch for a bounce toward the 50-dma near $71.35. A failed rally there can be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $68-67 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Urban Outfitters - URBN - cls: 55.66 chg: +0.61 stop: 57.01

URBN is off to a bad start. Shares of apparel retailer URBN managed to bounce higher along with the rest of the market and the retail sector but not before dipping toward the $54.00 level. That's right. This morning the stock broke down under support at $54.50 and its simple 100-dma to trade at our suggested trigger point of $54.25 opening the play. The question now is how high will this bounce go and will the $56.00 level, which was support the previous two weeks, now act as resistance. We would not suggest new positions until we see the bounce fail.

Picked on August 31 at $ 54.25
Change since picked: + 1.41
Earnings Date 08/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 47.72 chg: +0.95 stop: 50.25

With virtually the entire market in bounce mode today it was not a surprise to see shares of WYNN produce an oversold bounce too. The closest level of overhead resistance is the simple 10-dma now at 48.37. The next level of overhead resistance is the $50.00 mark.

Picked on August 19 at $ 49.95
Change since picked: - 2.13
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Ingersoll Rand - IR - close: 79.62 chg: +2.09 stop: 80.01

It's time to go! We're exiting early now that shares of IR have broken out above technical resistance at the simple 200-dma and price resistance at $78.00. The move was probably fueled by the huge surge in anything building-related as investors bet on the massive building effort sure to come following hurricane Katrina. Don't forget that IR is due to split 2-for-1 on Friday.

Picked on August 24 at $ 77.49
Change since picked: + 2.13
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Simon Prpty Grp - SPG - close: 76.07 chg: +1.51 stop: 77.01

It does not look like SPG is going to work out for us and we're choosing to cut our losses as soon as possible. The stock rallied sharply today adding just over two percent on above average volume. The move over round-number resistance at $75.00 and technical resistance at the 50-dma is bad news if you're short.

Picked on August 18 at $ 75.24
Change since picked: + 0.83
Earnings Date 07/28/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 946 thousand
 

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