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Call Updates

Aetna - AET - close: 79.70 change: 0.03 stop: 76.99

Close but no cigar. AET did pierce round-number resistance at the $80.00 level and made it to $80.12 but did not trade at or above our trigger to buy calls at $80.25. We see no changes from our play description in last night's newsletter. If triggered our target is the $84.75-85.25 range.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 10/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Centex - CTX - close: 67.86 chg: 0.11 stop: 63.99

Shares of CTX rose again as yields on the ten-year note sank under the 4.00% level on an intraday basis. This helped fuel a rise in CTX above resistance at its 21-dma and the $68.00 mark. The stock did hit our trigger to buy calls at $68.25 opening the play. The move also helped confirm the new MACD buy signal. However, with today's afternoon pull back we would probably look for a dip back toward the $66.00-66.50 region and use a bounce there as a new bullish entry point going forward. Our target is the $73-75 range.

Picked on September 01 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 89.87 chg: 1.84 stop: 84.90 *new*

Oil stocks continue to climb and KMG added another two percent to confirm the recent breakout over resistance at the $88.00 level. KMG has hit our initial target in the $89.50-90.00 range. Per our recent updates we've been suggesting that readers consider taking partial (half) profits here and holding the rest of their positions until KMG hits the $92.00-92.50 range. We are raising the stop loss to $84.90.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: 3.93
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 76.40 change: 0.02 stop: 71.99

This is the same story as our CTX play just a different stock. Homebuilders did see some strength today but pulled back this afternoon. Shares of MDC did hit our trigger to buy calls at $77.01 opening the play. Yet the pull back suggests that MDC might retest the $75.00-75.50 level again before it continues higher. Look for a bounce from $75 as a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $83-85 range.

Picked on September 01 at $ 77.01
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 10/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand

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Noble Corp - NE - close: 71.59 change: 0.29 stop: 67.25

NE's rally today may not have been that impressive, especially compared to the 3% gain in the OIX oil index. However, we see the intraday rebound from the $70.00 level as another bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $78.00-80.00 range.

Picked on August 31 at $ 71.30
Change since picked: 0.29
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 93.39 change: -1.11 stop: 97.01 *new*

AZO continues to display relative weakness with another 1.17% decline today. Volume came in pretty strong suggesting more weakness ahead. Our target is the $91.25-91.00 range near its simple 200-dma. We're going to lower the stop loss to $97.01.

Picked on August 28 at $ 95.45
Change since picked: - 2.06
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand

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Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 48.52 chg: -0.82 stop: 51.49 *new*

CCL sinks to another new relative low today with a 1.66% decline on above average volume. The stock is nearing our target in the $47.75-47.00 range. We are lowering the stop loss to 51.49.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 3.27
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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CDW Corp - CDWC - close: 58.46 chg: -0.62 stop: 62.01

CDWC also sank to another new relative low today and this time broke down under its simple 100-dma. We see no changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $55.00-54.00 range.

Picked on August 31 at $ 58.99
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 867 thousand

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 57.94 change: 0.66 stop: 60.01

ERTS is still bouncing from yesterday's test of the 100-dma. We would watch for a failed rally under $59.00 or its 50-dma (58.77) as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $51.00-50.00 range.

Picked on August 30 at $ 56.41
Change since picked: 1.53
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 80.55 chg: -0.89 stop: 85.01 *new*

Transports trended lower today and FDX lost another one percent as it approached round-number support and its June lows near the $80.00 mark. We do expect an oversold from here but readers can watch the simple 50-dma overhead to act as resistance. Our target is the $76-75 range. We are lowering the stop loss to $85.01.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 2.44
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Google - GOOG - close: 286.25 chg: 0.25 stop: 290.51

Our GOOG play remains on life support only so that we can try and get a better exit in the $280-284 region. We are not suggesting new plays. Instead we're suggesting that put holders look to exit.

Picked on August 11 at $284.50
Change since picked: 1.75
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 13.6 million

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Illinois Tool Works - ITW - cls: 85.55 chg: 1.27 stop: 86.51

Uh-oh! ITW continued to bounce on Thursday with volume coming in above average. The stock does still have overhead resistance at the top of its descending channel (near $86) but more conservative traders may want to think about minimizing any losses here. There is no way to know if this is a temporary bounce fueled by speculation on the Katrina rebuilding to occur or a true change in direction.

Picked on August 23 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: 0.50
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 67.26 chg: -0.79 stop: 70.51

We have good news here. The BTK biotech index continued to rally today but KOSP failed to participate. The stock remains in its four-week trend of lower highs. We are going to adjust our target to the $63.00-62.00 range to account for potential technical support at the simple 100-dma (62.50).

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.99
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 70.86 change: -0.29 stop: 72.01

No change from our previous update on Tuesday. Our target is 70.00 but traders may want to seriously consider exiting near $70.50.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 3.43
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 69.65 chg: -1.24 stop: 74.21

Good news! UPS continues to show relative weakness and today's 1.74% decline pushed the stock under round-number support at the $70.00 level. Our target is the $68-67 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 2.34
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Urban Outfitters - URBN - cls: 52.60 chg: -3.06 stop: 57.01

Retail stocks helped lead the losers on Thursday and URBN was right out front with a 5.5% decline on very strong volume. This certainly confirms the breakdown under support at $54.50 and its simple 100-dma. The big volume suggest more weakness ahead. However, the action on URBN's intraday chart indicates that the stock could produce an oversold bounce tomorrow. Watch for the $54.50 region to act as new overhead resistance and potentially offer a new entry point to buy puts.

Picked on August 31 at $ 54.25
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 08/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 48.85 chg: 1.13 stop: 50.25

Put holders needs to double-check their stops tonight. WYNN rallied sharply adding 2.4% on above average volume. We can't find any catalyst for the move but shares have broken through short-term technical resistance at their 10-dma. The rally did stall today under the $50.00 level (as we expected) but short-term oscillators are starting to look bullish again.

Picked on August 19 at $ 49.95
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Federated Dept. Stores - FD - cls: 65.81 chg: -3.17 stop: 73.51

Target achieved. Investors were not happy with FD's 1.1% increase in same-store sales for August. The number was below expectations and FD blames the slow down on hurricane Katrina's impact on its gulf coast stores. Newly acquired May Department stores same-store sales also fell below expectations. This sent shares of FD streaking down 4.59% on very heavy volume. The stock is now nearing round-number support at the $65.00 level and technical support at its exponential and simple 200-dma's. We are exiting per our game plan.

Picked on August 22 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 6.18
Earnings Date 08/10/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
 

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