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Call Updates

Aetna - AET - close: 82.05 change: +1.95 stop: 77.95*new*

A strong day for the DJIA and the insurance stocks helped propel shares of AET to a new six-week high. The stock added 2.4% on decent volume. The move to $80.25, our trigger point, opened the play. Our target is the $84.75-85.25 range. We are raising the stop loss to $77.95.

Picked on September 06 at $ 80.25
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 10/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Centex - CTX - close: 68.23 chg: +1.53 stop: 63.99

Homebuilders really soared today adding 2.3% to out perform the broader market. The DJUSHB index broke through round-number resistance at the 1000 mark. Meanwhile shares of CTX added 2.29% to erase Friday's decline. Our target is the $73-75 range.

Picked on September 01 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 88.90 chg: +0.57 stop: 85.90 *new*

Falling crude prices were fueling the market's rally on Tuesday but that didn't stop shares of KMG from posting another gain. Shares did fail to rally through the $90.00 mark again but there were traders buying the dip at KMG's simple 10-dma this morning. We have been suggesting that our readers consider exiting half their position near $90.00 and the second half in the $92.00-92.50 range. Keep in mind that if the oil indices start to breakdown we do expect KMG to follow suit so double check those stops. We are raising our stop loss to $85.90.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: + 2.96
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 109.48 chg: +1.35 stop: 103.90

Uh-oh! LEH is moving higher but we wanted to see a dip first. Right now our strategy is to buy a dip back into the $107.10-106.50 range. Tuesday's market rally has pushed LEH closer toward resistance near $110. We still expect a dip but we're going to widen our suggested entry point to buy the dip to $107.55-106.50. If triggered we'll target a move into the $112.00-112.50 range.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 76.34 change: +1.09 stop: 71.99

MDC is also bouncing higher along with the homebuilding sector. We remain bullish even though MDC's 1.44% gain under performed the rest of its peers. Our target is the $83.00-85.00 range. Another alternative candidate in this group that we like is Ryland Group (RYL).

Picked on September 01 at $ 77.01
Change since picked: - 0.67
Earnings Date 10/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand

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Noble Corp - NE - close: 69.65 change: -0.12 stop: 67.25

As we suggested in the weekend newsletter shares of NE did pull back toward the $68.50 level. The oil sector hit some profit taking with the pull back in crude prices but overall the sector closed positive. More aggressive traders can use the pull back in shares of NE as a new bullish entry point. We would rather wait. The profit taking in crude oil may not be done yet. Therefore we would not suggest new plays in shares of NE until the tsock traded back over the $71.00 level.

Picked on August 31 at $ 71.30
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 94.98 change: +2.33 stop: 95.51

Battle stations! Retail stocks were leading the relief rally today as crude oil prices fell lower. The RLX index soared with a 2.44% gain. Shares of AZO out paced the sector with a 2.5% gain and is now challenging its five-week trend of lower highs. Today's move did break technical resistance at its simple 10-dma. If there is any sort of follow through on today's rally tomorrow we expect to be stopped out at $95.51.

Picked on August 28 at $ 95.45
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand

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Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 49.35 chg: +1.11 stop: 51.49

CCL came out today and said the impact of hurricane Katrina would hit earnings by 1-to-3 cents this quarter. The bad news didn't stop shares of CCL from rebounding higher in today's broad-market rally. The $50.00 level should be the next spot of overhead resistance.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 2.44
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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CDW Corp - CDWC - close: 59.07 chg: +0.52 stop: 62.01

The good news here is that CDWC failed to really participate in the retail stocks rally today. CDWC remains under resistance at the $60.00 mark and its 200-dma. A failed rally under $60 can be used as a new bearish entry point.

Picked on August 31 at $ 58.99
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 07/19/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 867 thousand

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 56.14 change: -1.28 stop: 60.01

ERTS experienced a sharp drop at the open as the rest of the world responded to recent news that some key managers at the company were leaving. Volume was heavy and the stock failed to rebound even through the broader market was in rally mode. Watch for an oversold bounce back toward the $57 region as a new bearish entry point. Our target is the $51-50 range.

Picked on August 30 at $ 56.41
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 81.41 chg: +0.84 stop: 85.01

Transport stocks rallied as crude oil prices slipped lower and that helped fuel a rebound in FDX from round-number support at the $80.00 level. We've been warning readers for days to look for a bounce from the $80 level and this is it. The $82.50-83.00 region should act as overhead resistance.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 66.49 chg: -0.07 stop: 70.51

KOSP did not participate in the market rally today or the 2.2% jump in the BTK biotech index. That's a good sign for bears in the stock. Our target is the $63-62 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 1.76
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand

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United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 70.05 chg: +1.07 stop: 74.21

UPS also got a boost from falling crude oil prices today and news that its pilot's union agreed to re-enter mediation. This should post-pone any potential strikes by its pilots. We would watch for shares of UPS to continue its oversold bounce toward the simple 10-dma.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 1.94
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Urban Outfitters - URBN - cls: 55.56 chg: +1.56 stop: 57.01

URBN was caught up in the retail stock rebound today and shares broke out again above its simple 100-dma and the $55.00 mark. This looks like bad news for bears in the stock. If URBN closes over the $56.00 mark, its next level of overhead resistance, we may consider an early exit to minimize our losses. We're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on August 31 at $ 54.25
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 08/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 49.37 chg: +0.77 stop: 50.25

The rebound in shares of WYNN today helped produce a new MACD buy signal but the stock remains under resistance at the $50.00 mark. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Instead readers can wait and watch for a failed rally under $50 as a new entry point.

Picked on August 19 at $ 49.95
Change since picked: - 0.58
Earnings Date 08/01/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Illinois Tool Works - ITW - cls: 86.38 chg: +0.75 stop: 86.51

ITW's rebuilding rally seemed to stall on Friday but the broad market advance today was too much for bears to endure and shares of ITW broke through its exponential 200-dma on an intraday basis. We've been stopped out at $86.51.

Picked on August 23 at $ 85.05
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 72.70 change: +1.20 stop: 72.01

MMM experienced some strength today and the stock gapped open at $72.08 to immediately stop us out. Our stop loss was at $72.01. Shares have been trying to build a base above the $70 level the past couple of weeks so it will be interesting to see if MMM can break through additional resistance at the $73 level or its 50-dma.

Picked on July 19 at $ 74.29
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 07/18/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

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