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Call Updates

Aetna - AET - close: 83.75 change: +0.55 stop: 78.95

A pull back in the broader market today did not stop shares of AET from posting another gain. Volume came in slightly above average and shares are nearing our target in the $84.75-85.25 range.

Picked on September 06 at $ 80.25
Change since picked: + 3.50
Earnings Date 10/27/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Centex - CTX - close: 67.64 chg: -0.94 stop: 63.99

It was a rough day for homebuilders after HOV issued an earnings warning that sparked a sector wide sell-off. CTX gapped lower to open at $66.57 before rebounding higher throughout the session on Thursday. Volume came in pretty strong today and readers can use this dip as a new bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $73-75 range.

Picked on September 01 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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KB Home - KBH - close: 74.63 chg: -1.20 stop: 71.50

KBH was also hit by the HOV earnings warning and the decline in the homebuilder sector, but like shares of CTX, KBH rallied higher throughout the day. We would use today's dip as a new bullish entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to wait for KBH to breakout over the $76.00 level and/or its simple 50-dma.

Picked on September 07 at $ 75.89
Change since picked: - 1.20
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 110.60 chg: +0.21 stop: 103.90

We are not going to give up hope just yet. We've been looking for a dip back toward old resistance but shares of LEH have been rather resilient lately. Currently our plan is to buy calls on a dip into the $107.55-106.50 range. If triggered our target is the $112.00-112.50 range.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 76.60 change: -0.94 stop: 71.99

MDC produced a very similar pattern seen in CTX and KBH today. The stock gapped down on the HOV earnings news but rallied higher through out the day. We would use the dip today as a new bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $83-85 range.

Picked on September 01 at $ 77.01
Change since picked: - 0.41
Earnings Date 10/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand

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Noble Corp - NE - close: 70.20 change: -0.21 stop: 67.25

We're not seeing a lot of action in shares of NE right now but the stock is showing some resilience and resisting any serious profit taking. We would wait for a move over $71.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Picked on August 31 at $ 71.30
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Potlatch - PCH - close: 53.82 chg: -0.63 stop: 51.99

We see no change from our previous update on Wednesday although we're going to suggest that readers wait for PCH to trade over $54.30 before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders can wait for a breakout over its simple 50-dma before initiating new positions. Our six-week target is the $58.50-59.00 range.

Picked on September 07 at $ 54.45
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 229 thousand
 

Put Updates

Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 49.42 chg: -0.45 stop: 50.51

It looks like CCL is producing another failed rally under the $50.00 level and its simple 21-dma. We're not suggesting new plays here but it's a good sign for any open put positions. Our target is the $47.75-47.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 2.37
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 56.85 change: +0.30 stop: 60.01

ERTS performed as we expected and continued to rally toward resistance at the $58.00 level and its simple 200-dma. Today's failed rally could be used as a new bearish entry point to buy puts but more conservative traders might feel more comfortable waiting for a new relative low under $55.45 before initiating positions.

Picked on August 30 at $ 56.41
Change since picked: + 0.44
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 80.30 chg: -0.77 stop: 85.01

Transports were weak again on Thursday with the Dow Transportation index sinking back towards its simple 200-dma. This helped drag shares of FDX back towards round-number support at the $80.00 level. We would not suggest new bearish plays until FDX trades below today's low at $79.88. Our target is the $76-75 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 2.69
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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KOS Pharma - KOSP - close: 69.51 chg: +1.45 stop: 70.51

Uh-oh! It may be time for us to run for the exits. Thursday started out okay with a quick, failed-rally near $69.00 this morning. Then, very late in the day, shares of KOSP surged higher on lots of volume. We cannot find any news to account for this late day surge higher but it does not bode well for our play. The only thing that we could find that might account for the rise in KOSP was a similar rise in shares of Pfizer (PFE) at the end of the day. Before the closing bell news hit the wires that an advisory FDA panel voted to recommend the agency approve PFE's Exubera drug for inhaled insulin to treat type 1 and type 2 diabetes. KOSP does produce aerosol metered-dose inhalation systems but we don't see how KOSP would be connected to the PFE drug Exubera. KOSP does have round-number resistance at the $70.00 level and technical resistance at its simple 50-dma near $70.50 but we would still strongly consider exiting now.

Picked on August 22 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 08/04/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 642 thousand

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United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 68.83 chg: -0.90 stop: 74.21

UPS sank to another new relative low today and the stock looks poised to hit our target in the $68.00-67.00 range. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 3.16
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million
 

Dropped Calls

Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 91.70 chg: +1.43 stop: 85.90

Target achieved, again. KMG continues to show a lot of relative strength. The stock out performed the market and its peers in the oil sector on Thursday. Of course it got a little help today. Lehman Brothers upgraded the stock to an "overweight" and raised their price target to $115. Shares of KMG hit an intraday high of $92.21 and still look poised to move higher. Our secondary target was the $92.00-92.50 range so we're closing the play per our game plan.

Picked on August 21 at $ 85.99
Change since picked: + 5.71
Earnings Date 07/27/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

Urban Outfitters - URBN - cls: 57.18 chg: +0.65 stop: 57.01

It looks like we would have escaped another day given the weakness in the retail sector on Thursday. Unfortunately, a late day spike higher in the last 30 minutes of trading sent shares of URBN soaring past the $57.00 level on rising volume. We've been stopped out at $57.01. We cannot find any news or rumors to account for the late day surge.

Picked on August 31 at $ 54.25
Change since picked: + 2.93
Earnings Date 08/11/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

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