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Call Updates

Amer. Intl Group - AIG - cls: 61.01 chg: -0.22 stop: 57.99

Shares of AIG experienced a little bit of follow through at the open but couldn't hold its gains. This failed-rally type of action suggests that AIG will probably pull back and retest support near the $60.00 level. Wait and wach for the pull back. We would use a bounce from $60.00 as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on September 11 at $ 61.23
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 11/08/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million


Centex - CTX - close: 68.79 chg: -0.84 stop: 64.99

Homebuilders turned in a mixed performance today with the DJUSHB index churning sideways for most of the session. CTX followed suite after an early morning failed rally at the $70.00 level. Right now we'd expect a little bit of profit taking back toward the simple 10-dma near $67.50. A bounce from the 10-dma could be used as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on September 01 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million


KB Home - KBH - close: 75.88 chg: -0.34 stop: 71.50

Same story, different stock. KBH initially traded higher and broke out over resistance at its simple 50-dma but could not hold on to its gains. Shares spent most of the session churning sideways. We would look for a dip tomorrow. A bounce from the simple 10-dma could be used as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on September 07 at $ 75.89
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million


MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 79.89 change: -0.25 stop: 74.45

Same story, part three. MDC, another homebuilder, pierced technical resistance at its simple 50-dma today but couldn't hold it. The stock's failed rally today suggests more profit taking tomorrow. Watch for MDC to find support near broken resistance at the $78.00 level. A bounce from $78 could be used as a new bullish entry point.

Picked on September 01 at $ 77.01
Change since picked: + 2.88
Earnings Date 10/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand


Noble Energy - NBL - close: 87.80 chg: -2.00 stop: 84.99

Crude oil fell below $63 a barrel and that sparked some profit taking in the oil sector. Plus, there appears to be a new spin on the hurricane Katrina story. Some analysts are suggesting that the hurricane's impact will actually lessen demand for oil. We're not so sure we agree but traders use it as an excuse to sell oil stocks today. Watch for shares of NBL to find some minor support near the $86.00 or $86.50 levels. A bounce from there could be used as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders may want to step back and not initiate new bullish positions in oil stocks at this time.

Picked on September 11 at $ 89.80
Change since picked: - 2.00
Earnings Date 11/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 796 thousand


Noble Corp - NE - close: 69.82 change: -1.83 stop: 67.25

The action in NE tells a similar story. The drop in oil produced some profit taking and the stock lost 2.5%. Watch for a bounce from the $69.00 level above its simple 40-dma. If NE trades under $69.00 we may choose to exit early to minimize our losses.

Picked on August 31 at $ 71.30
Change since picked: - 1.48
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million


Potlatch - PCH - close: 54.31 chg: +0.28 stop: 51.99

PCH did show some strength today but more conservative traders might want to wait for PCH to breakout over its simple 50-dma before considering new bullish positions.

Picked on September 07 at $ 54.45
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 229 thousand

Put Updates

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 81.05 chg: +1.29 stop: 83.51

We sort of expected an oversold bounce in FDX. Our weekend update suggested that readers watch for a rebound toward the $81 region. The real question now is whether or not the bulls can produce any sort of follow through on today's rally. Otherwise, FDX will be stuck in its current trend of lower highs and lower lows. We are not suggesting new plays until FDX trades back under the $80 level.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 1.94
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million


United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 68.51 chg: +0.01 stop: 72.01

UPS continues to under perform its rival FDX and the market. Our target is the $68.00-67.00 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 3.48
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

Dropped Calls

Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 112.33 chg: +1.36 stop: 104.99

Shares of LEH are just not cooperating. They have displayed plenty of relative strength and the stock has already hit our pre-earnings target in the $112.00-112.50 range. Unfortunately, we never got an entry point to jump in. Thus, we're closing the play unopened. We'll be sure to keep an eye on LEH for future entries but we do not want to hold over the late September earnings report.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

Dropped Puts

Carnival Corp - CCL - close: 51.00 chg: +1.30 stop: 50.26

Thank you Barron's. A Barron's article over the weekend suggested that the stocks of cruise liners have been unjustly sold off and that they could rise upwards of 20 percent over the next couple of years since business is still robust. That sparked some buying interest and short covering on Monday for CCL. Shares gapped open at $50.44 above our stop loss of $50.26 to immediately end our play. Today's move is a breakout of its bearish trend so any bears left in the stock should tread carefully.

Picked on August 10 at $ 51.79
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million


Electronic Arts - ERTS - close: 59.09 change: +2.97 stop: 60.01

Ouch! An unexpected upgrade to a "buy" rating by Wedbush Morgan sent shares of ERTS soaring on Monday. The stock broke through technical resistance at its 50-dma and 200-dma on big volume. The rally did stall at psychological resistance at the $60.00. This also happens to coincide with Point & Figure chart resistance near $60.00 and it coincides with a trendline of lower highs starting at the late July peak. More aggressive traders may want to hang on and see what happens. The P&F chart still points to a $50 target. However, today's gain has broken the short-term bearish trend. We're going to exit now to avoid further losses.

Picked on August 30 at $ 56.41
Change since picked: + 2.68
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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