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Call Updates

Amer. Intl Group - AIG - cls: 61.00 chg: -0.01 stop: 57.99

AIG may be an insurance conglomerate but it is not a big health insurer. Yet bearish comments from Aetna (AET) certainly influenced the insurance sector today. Plus, there were more bearish comments in the press about potential losses for property insurers due to Katrina's damage. Despite all of this shares of AIG only closed with a one-cent loss, which we see as a sign of relative strength. But even AIG's relative strength may not save us if the rest of the market suddenly sinks into the historically weak September time period. Broader averages don't look to healthy so we'd shy away from making any new bullish positions. Watch for AIG to retest support near the $60.00 level.

Picked on September 11 at $ 61.23
Change since picked: - 0.23
Earnings Date 11/08/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million


Centex - CTX - close: 68.14 chg: -0.65 stop: 64.99

Homebuilders hit some more profit taking today. Yesterday we warned readers to expect some weakness this week so this shouldn't be a surprise. We're still watching to see if CTX will rebound from its simple 10-dma. Wait for signs of a bounce if you're considering new bullish positions.

Picked on September 01 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million


KB Home - KBH - close: 75.91 chg: +0.03 stop: 71.50

KBH fared a bit better than some of its peers but we're still expecting some profit taking for the stock. We would not suggest new bullish positions until we see a bounce from its simple 10-dma.

Picked on September 07 at $ 75.89
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million


MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 79.19 change: -0.70 stop: 74.45

No surprises here. We warned readers to look for a dip toward the $78 level and MDC did just that at the open today. The stock also bounced from this level as expected. The question now is whether or not the profit taking is over. We suspect that MDC will test the $78.00 level again and/or its simple 10-dma. Wait for the bounce before considering new bullish positions.

Picked on September 01 at $ 77.01
Change since picked: + 2.18
Earnings Date 10/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand


Noble Energy - NBL - close: 87.53 chg: -0.27 stop: 84.99

NBL continues to see some profit taking here and we don't believe it's over yet. Right now we're expecting NBL to slip toward the $86 region and maybe support near its 40-dma close to the $85 mark. We would not be suggesting new plays here. Wait for signs of a bounce.

Picked on September 11 at $ 89.80
Change since picked: - 2.27
Earnings Date 11/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 796 thousand


Noble Corp - NE - close: 69.39 change: -0.43 stop: 67.25

NE is experiencing more profit taking as well. We expected as much and continue to look for NE to test the $69.00 level. More conservative traders may want to consider exiting early if NE trades under the $69.00 level. We're not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on August 31 at $ 71.30
Change since picked: - 1.91
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million


Potlatch - PCH - close: 53.43 chg: -0.88 stop: 51.99

PCH hit some weakness during today's market-wide sell-off. The stock did manage a bounce from its rising 100-dma but we don't like what today's session did to its technicals. Traders should be on the defensive here. If PCH trades under today's low of 52.70 we will probably exit early.

Picked on September 07 at $ 54.45
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 229 thousand

Put Updates

Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 80.02 chg: -1.03 stop: 83.51

The transportation sector sank again on Tuesday and FDX slipped back toward the $80.00 level. We see no change from our previous updates although we'd probably look for a decline under $79.70 before initiating new bearish positions.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 2.97
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million


United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 68.43 chg: -0.08 stop: 72.01

No change from our previous update. Our target is the $68.00-67.00 range.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 3.56
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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