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Call Updates

Amer. Intl Group - AIG - cls: 60.77 chg: -0.23 stop: 57.99

Shares of AIG are holding up relatively well considering the weakness in the broader markets today. We still expect a dip toward the $60.00 level and we're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on September 11 at $ 61.23
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 11/08/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.2 million


Centex - CTX - close: 67.49 chg: -0.65 stop: 64.99

We've been expecting some weakness in the homebuilders as traders do a little profit taking from the early September rally but now we're starting to turn cautious. We do not like how the DJUSHB home construction index is turning lower under its simple 50-dma. Plus, the DJUSHB index's MACD indicator is starting to fade under the zero line. Technical indicators on shares of CTX aren't look too healthy either. We've been suggesting that readers look for a bounce from the 10-dma on CTX but today the stock broke down and closed under its simple 10-dma. We may choose to exit early and cut our losses if CTX traders under or closes under the $67.00 mark.

Picked on September 01 at $ 68.25
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 10/25/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million


KB Home - KBH - close: 76.55 chg: 0.64 stop: 71.50

KBH is faring a lot better than the rest of the homebuilders, which are starting to show signs of weakness. Not so for shares of KBH, which are testing resistance at its simple 50-dma near the $77.00 level.

Picked on September 07 at $ 75.89
Change since picked: 0.66
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million


MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 78.78 change: -0.41 stop: 74.45

We got some mixed news today from MDC. The company issued both an earnings warning and raised earnings expectations. First, MDC said that earnings for 2005 would probably come in above Wall Street's expectations (obviously a good thing). Unfortunately, due to construction delays their third quarter earnings would come in under analysts' expectations (yup, that's bad). But MDC said that any shortfall in the third quarter would be made up in the fourth quarter. Investor reaction to the news had MDC gapping down to open at $77.20 but there was quick buying interest and MDC closed most of the gap. Currently, we're feeling defensive on the homebuilders (see comments in our CTX update). If MDC trades under the $77.00 level we'll probably close the play early to minimize any losses.

Picked on September 01 at $ 77.01
Change since picked: 1.77
Earnings Date 10/13/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand


Noble Energy - NBL - close: 88.55 chg: 1.02 stop: 84.99

A rebound in crude oil prices has sparked a new rally in the oil stocks. The OIX index added 1.39% and the OSX services index jumped 1.35%. Shares of NBL added 1.16%. Aggressive traders can use this as a new entry point. We would suggest most of us wait for a new high over the $90.00 mark before buying calls.

Picked on September 11 at $ 89.80
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 11/02/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 796 thousand


Noble Corp - NE - close: 70.70 change: 1.31 stop: 67.25

NE was helping lead the charge higher in oil stocks today. The rebound in crude prices sparked a new sector wide rally and shares of NE added 1.88%. This looks like a new bullish entry point but more conservative types may want to wait for a new move over $72.00 before buying calls.

Picked on August 31 at $ 71.30
Change since picked: - 0.60
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

Put Updates

Adobe Sys. - ADBE - close: 27.27 chg: 0.45 stop: n/a

Our play on ADBE is not truly a directional put play but a "strangle" play. We are suggesting that readers buy the October 27.50 call and the October 25.00 put. Then we hold over ADBE's earnings report due out on September 15th and look for a big move one way or the other. Currently our bias is bearish but it doesn't matter what direction ADBE moves as long as it moves enough to make our strangle profitable. Wall Street's estimates for ADBE are 27 cents a share. The company should report earnings after the closing bell tomorrow.

Picked on September 13 at $ 26.82
Change since picked: 0.45
Earnings Date 09/15/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million


Fedex Corp - FDX - close: 79.80 chg: -0.22 stop: 83.51

Transportation stocks were weak again following a spike higher in crude oil prices. FDX looks poised to move lower but the Dow Transportation index is hinting at a bounce higher from the bottom of its narrow descending channel. Watch for the $81.00 level to be short-term overhead resistance for FDX. Our target is the $76-75 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 82.99
Change since picked: - 3.19
Earnings Date 09/22/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million


Hershey Co. - HSY - close: 57.60 change: -0.61 stop: 59.51

Heads up! The selling pressure in shares of HSY is picking up speed. The stock lost another one percent today on rising volume that came in well above its daily average volume. Our trigger to buy puts was $57.90 so the play is now open. The MACD indicator is about to produce a new sell signal. Our target is the $54.00-53.50 range.

Picked on September 14 at $ 57.90
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 10/20/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 760 thousand


Ishares DJ Fin. Serv. - IYF - cls: 95.46 chg: -0.30 stop: 96.75

So far so good. IYF is off to a decent start with today's decline seeming to confirm yesterday's failed rally. We don't expect the ishares to move very quickly so this is still a good spot to consider new entries. Our six-week target is the $92.00 level.

Picked on September 13 at $ 95.76
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 20 thousand


MBIA Inc. - MBI - close: 56.55 chg: -1.20 stop: 59.01

MBI is off to a good start too. The stock lost just over two percent today as shares confirm yesterday's failed rally at resistance. Our short-term target is the $54.25 mark.

Picked on September 13 at $ 57.75
Change since picked: - 1.20
Earnings Date 11/01/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million


United Parcel Svc - UPS - cls: 68.30 chg: -0.13 stop: 72.01

We have to apologize here. Shares of UPS actually hit the top edge of our target at $68.00 on Monday, September 12th. We would have closed the play that night per our game plan if we had caught it. Fortunately, as it looks now shares of UPS are poised to hit our target again in the $68.00-67.00 range. More conservative traders can exit at any time.

Picked on August 17 at $ 71.99
Change since picked: - 3.69
Earnings Date 07/21/05 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

Dropped Calls

Potlatch - PCH - close: 52.47 chg: -0.96 stop: 51.99

Time to make a run for the exits! PCH showing some relative weakness as the stock under performs with a 1.79% decline on above average volume. The breakdown under yesterday's low and the simple 100-dma is our clue to run. The MACD is about to produce a new sell signal.

Picked on September 07 at $ 54.45
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 10/17/05 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 229 thousand

Dropped Puts


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