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Call Updates

Ashland - ASH - close: 65.24 change: -0.86 stop: 64.75

Weakness across the market and especially in the oil sector weighed on shares of ASH today. The stock lost 1.3% and its testing support at the $65.00 level (again). We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on March 03 at $ 67.11
Change since picked: - 1.81
Earnings Date 01/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 689 thousand

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Cameco - CCJ - close: 37.91 change: -0.10 stop: 35.29

Our new bullish play in CCJ has been triggered. The stock gapped higher this morning to open at $38.50 and then shares rallied to $39.25 before succumbing to the market-wide selling. Our trigger to buy calls was at $38.51. Currently our stop loss (35.29) is under the simple 50-dma. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Wait for a new move over $38.50 again before considering new bullish positions. More aggressive traders might want to consider buying calls if we see a bounce from the $36.00 region. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 range.

Picked on March 06 at $ 38.51
Change since picked: - 0.60
Earnings Date 02/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Cigna - CI - close: 122.02 change: -1.50 stop: 119.90

Our bullish play in CI is in jeopardy once again. The stock is still churning sideways but shares are testing short-term support near $122.00 and look poised to hit the $120.00 level pretty soon. Considering the weakness in the major indices more conservative traders may just want to bail out early right here. We are not suggesting new bullish positions.

Picked on February 26 at $124.57
Change since picked: - 2.55
Earnings Date 02/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 944 thousand

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - cls: 75.21 change: +1.21 stop: 67.75

GRMN continues to display relative strength. The stock hit another new high today and volume came in above average. We could be witnessing a short squeeze. GRMN came within 30-cents of hitting our target in the $77.00-78.00 range. We are not suggesting new bullish positions right here.

Picked on March 02 at $ 72.70
Change since picked: + 2.51
Earnings Date 02/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Hartford Fin. Srv. - HIG - cls: 81.79 chg: -0.24 stop: 79.95

We see no change from our weekend update on HIG. We are not suggesting new bullish plays at this time. We'll be looking for a bounce from the $80.00 level as a potential entry point.

Picked on February 14 at $ 82.12
Change since picked: - 0.33
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Monster Wrldwde - MNST - close: 48.43 chg: -0.55 stop: 47.75

We see no change from our weekend update on MNST. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $50.65. If triggered we will target a rally into the $54.85-55.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Altria Group - MO - close: 71.50 chg: -0.61 stop: 71.85

We see no change from our weekend update on MO. Shares are still holding above technical support at their simple 200-dma. We are suggesting that traders wait for a breakout over $74.00 and use a trigger at $74.10 to buy calls. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $77.50-78.00 range.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million

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Occidental Petrol. - OXY - cls: 91.60 chg: -3.40 stop: 89.49

Ouch! Heavy-duty profit taking in the oil and oil services sector helped pull OXY from its recent highs. The stock lost 3.5% and is headed for round-number support near $90.00. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on February 21 at $ 92.00 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

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Ultra Petrol. - UPL - close: 51.15 change: -3.45 stop: 51.95

We are still on the sidelines with UPL. Our plan called for a trigger to buy calls at $55.05. The weakness in the oil sector has pulled UPL back toward the $50 level. More aggressive traders might want to watch for a bounce from $50.00 as a higher-risk entry point. For now we'll stick to our trigger at $55.05. If triggered then we will target a quick rebound into the $59.50-60.00 range, which is under resistance at the 50-dma. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - close: 54.78 change: -1.74 stop: 53.49

There is no change from our weekend update on VLO. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $57.55. If triggered we'll target a move into the $62.50-63.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - cls: 65.48 change: -2.24 stop: 70.11

AAPL is off to a good start with a 3.3% decline today. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. Our target is the $63.00-62.00 range, which should line up with the small head-and-shoulder pattern projection. More aggressive traders might want to aim lower like $60.

Picked on March 05 at $ 67.72
Change since picked: - 2.24
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 80.00 chg: +0.04 stop: 81.05

There is no change from our weekend update on IBM. We suspect that the next move will be lower. We're suggesting that traders use a trigger to buy puts at $78.89, under the February low. If triggered then we'll target the $74.00-73.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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KB Home - KBH - close: 64.04 chg: -1.43 stop: 68.05

As we expected the homebuilders continued to sink and shares of KBH hit a new three-month low. The stock also hit our trigger to buy puts at $64.75 opening our play. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. Volume on today's breakdown was strong, which is usually a bearish signal.

Chart:

Picked on March 06 at $ 64.75
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Building Materials - BMHC - cls: 64.54 chg: -4.07 stop: n/a

BMHC broke down to new eight-month lows today and volume was very strong on the sell-off. The March $70 puts (BGU-ON) hit a high of $6.50 and is currently trading at $5.70bid/$6.10 ask. We recently adjusted our target to breakeven at $8.20. More conservative traders may want to think about exiting early to recoup some of their capital. More aggressive traders might even want to aim for a profit. Everything depends on if BMHC continues lower.

Picked on December 18 at $ 80.95
Change since picked: -16.41
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 527 thousand

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Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 43.05 chg: -0.86 stop: n/a

We don't see any change from our previous updates. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45. We are aiming for a rise to $5.95.

Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Change since picked: - 2.51
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Loews Corp. - LTR - close: 93.89 change: -0.70 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous updates on LTR. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Buying this strangle was a bet that LTR will be trading at more than $102 (above resistance) or less than $88 (under support) by March expiration. The options in our strangle are the March $100 calls (LTR-CT) and the March $90 puts (LTR-OR). Our estimated cost is $1.75.

Picked on February 13 at $ 95.72
Change since picked: - 1.83
Earnings Date 02/16/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 513 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 67.28 change: -1.15 stop: n/a

The MACD on RYL's daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN). Our estimated cost is $7.00. Our target is $12.00.

Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Change since picked: - 6.92
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

Potash - POT - close: 93.39 chg: -4.26 stop: 92.49

Enter your favorite cuss word right here: __________! POT was almost to our target late last week but shares took a dive this morning. An analyst firm downgraded the stock to an "under perform" and POT gapped lower to open at $94.71. The selling pushed POT under the simple 200-dma on an intraday basis and hit our stop loss at $92.49.

Picked on February 23 at $ 93.05
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 04/29/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 826 thousand

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Total - TOT - close: 124.50 change: -1.89 stop: 124.95

Look out below! Worries about oversupply, and talk about a potential deal with Iran undercut the oil sectors today. TOT has broken down under significant support at the $125.00 level and its simple 200-dma. We were stopped out at $124.95.

Picked on February 16 at $127.61
Change since picked: - 3.11
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 836 thousand
 

Dropped Putss

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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