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Call Updates

Cigna - CI - close: 125.60 change: +2.10 stop: 121.90 *new*

We continued to be somewhat surprised by CI's sudden show of strength but then again healthcare stocks tend to be seen as defensive in nature. CI displayed some relative strength today and broke out to new five-year highs. Volume was just above average on the session. Technical indicators are turning positive and the move over $125.00 looks like a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $129.75-130.00 range. We are going to raise our stop loss to $121.90 since the $122.00 level held as support for the last week.

Picked on February 26 at $124.57
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 02/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 944 thousand

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - cls: 74.78 change: +0.94 stop: 69.75 *new*

GRMN continues to look strong. The stock rebounded higher today adding 1.27%. The stock looks poised to make another run toward our target in the $77.00-78.00 range. After the closing bell today GRMN issued six press releases regarding new deals, new partnerships and new features. We are going to raise our stop loss to $69.75.

Picked on March 02 at $ 72.70
Change since picked: + 2.08
Earnings Date 02/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Hartford Fin. Srv. - HIG - cls: 81.70 chg: +0.09 stop: 79.95

We have nothing new to report on for HIG. We're not suggesting new positions. The path of least resistance appears to be down toward the support near $80.00 and its 200-dma.

Picked on February 14 at $ 82.12
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Altria Group - MO - close: 72.65 chg: +0.86 stop: 71.85

Heads up! Defensive stocks were on the move today and tobacco tends to be seen as a defensive play. Shares of MO are beginning to bounce from technical support at its 200-dma. Aggressive traders might want to seriously consider new positions here. The short-term technical oscillators are certainly looking more bullish. We are going to wait before suggesting new plays. We still see technical resistance at the 50-dma near $73.70 and price resistance near $74.00. Our plan suggests a trigger to buy calls at $74.11. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $77.50-78.00 range.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million

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Ultra Petrol. - UPL - close: 52.68 change: +1.68 stop: 51.95

UPL is bouncing from its lows near support at the $50.00 level but the stock hasn't broken its trend of lower highs yet. We are still on the sidelines. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $55.05. If triggered then we will target a quick rebound into the $59.50-60.00 range, which is under resistance at the 50-dma. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - close: 53.79 change: +0.15 stop: 53.49


VLO is also bouncing from its lows of the session but the stock remains under resistance near $57.00-57.50. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $57.55. If triggered we'll target a move into the $62.50-63.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - cls: 65.66 change: -0.65 stop: 70.11

There was no follow through on yesterday's bounce in AAPL and that's a good thing for the bears. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $63.00-62.00 range, which should line up with the small head-and-shoulder pattern projection. More aggressive traders might want to aim lower like $60.

Picked on March 05 at $ 67.72
Change since picked: - 2.06
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 81.14 chg: +0.85 stop: 81.05

The posture on IBM is changing. The stock is trying to breakout to the upside from its sideways to down consolidation. Today saw the stock rally toward technical resistance near its 50-dma and 200-dma. We're still on the sidelines but if IBM trades over $82.00 traders might want to consider going long calls on the stock. Right now our plan involves a trigger at $78.89 to buy puts.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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KB Home - KBH - close: 63.35 chg: +0.78 stop: 68.05

Homebuilders managed a somewhat tepid oversold bounce today. Shares of KBH could rebound to $65.00 or even the 10-dma near 66.32 and still not break its bearish pattern. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on March 06 at $ 64.75
Change since picked: - 1.40
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Building Materials - BMHC - cls: 65.57 chg: +0.40 stop: n/a

We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our target is at breakeven ($8.20). Keep an eye on the March $70 puts (BGU-ON). More conservative traders may want to think about exiting early to recoup some of their capital.

Picked on December 18 at $ 80.95
Change since picked: -15.38
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 527 thousand

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Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 42.72 chg: +0.62 stop: n/a

We don't see any change from our previous updates. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45. We are aiming for a rise to $5.95.

Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Change since picked: - 2.84
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Loews Corp. - LTR - close: 94.11 change: +1.06 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous updates on LTR. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Buying this strangle was a bet that LTR will be trading at more than $102 (above resistance) or less than $88 (under support) by March expiration. The options in our strangle are the March $100 calls (LTR-CT) and the March $90 puts (LTR-OR). Our estimated cost is $1.75.

Picked on February 13 at $ 95.72
Change since picked: - 1.61
Earnings Date 02/16/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 513 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 66.46 change: +0.41 stop: n/a

We expected an oversold bounce in RYL and that's what the stock delivered today. The bounce may not be over yet. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN). Our estimated cost is $7.00. Our target is $12.00.

Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Change since picked: - 8.73
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

Monster Wrldwde - MNST - close: 46.17 chg: -1.45 stop: 47.75

Internet stocks are struggling thanks in part to weakness in GOOG. Shares of MNST lost another three percent today. We've been waiting for a breakout to a new high with a trigger at $50.65. We're now choosing to drop MNST as a bullish candidate. More aggressive traders might want to keep an eye on MNST for a bounce from the $45.00 level, where round-number support will be bolstered by its rising 50-dma. On the other hand if MNST breaks down under $45.00 it might be time to buy puts.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Occidental Petrol. - OXY - cls: 90.18 chg: -0.50 stop: 89.49

Oil stocks were somewhat volatile today as investors tried to juggle news from OPEC and the inventory numbers. OPEC decided to leave production quotas unchanged while inventory here in the U.S. came in much higher than expected. The oil sector rebounded from its lows as did shares of OXY but not before the stock hit our stop loss at $89.49. This loss would not have been so big if we had not been triggered on a gap higher back in February.

Picked on February 21 at $ 92.00 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 1.82
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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