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Call Updates

Cigna - CI - close: 125.60 change: +0.03 stop: 121.90

The markets are taking a cautious tone ahead of tomorrow's job report numbers. Stocks were widely lower and shares of CI struggled to build on yesterday's bullish breakout. If you're looking for a relative strength play then CI looks somewhat attractive but we hesitate to suggest new bullish positions in this market environment. Our target is the $129.75-130.00 range.

Picked on February 26 at $124.57
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 02/08/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 944 thousand

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Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - cls: 75.40 change: +0.61 stop: 69.75

Be careful here. GRMN did out perform the broader market today but today's rally in the stock failed to push past the $76.70 level. That's the second failed rally near that level in the last four days. More conservative traders, whether you have a gain or not, might want to consider an early exit here. Should the markets continue lower we'd expect GRMN to test the rising 10-dma, now at 72.17, as support. Our target is the $77.00-78.00 range.

Picked on March 02 at $ 72.70
Change since picked: + 2.70
Earnings Date 02/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Hartford Fin. Srv. - HIG - cls: 81.19 chg: -0.51 stop: 79.95

We have nothing new to report on for HIG. We're not suggesting new positions. The path of least resistance appears to be down toward the support near $80.00 and its 200-dma.

Picked on February 14 at $ 82.12
Change since picked: - 0.93
Earnings Date 01/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Altria Group - MO - close: 72.83 chg: +0.18 stop: 71.85

Bulls paid MO some attention this morning and the stock shot higher but the rally failed near its simple 50 and 100-dma's (around $73.70). The stock quickly reversed after the spike but just before the closing bell the stock popped higher again. We are still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over the $74.00 level. Our trigger to buy calls is at $74.11. If triggered we'll target a rally into the $77.50-78.00 range. In the news today was an article stating that cigarette sales fell to a 55-year low. In 2005 the number of cigarettes sold had declined to 378 billion (for the year). This marks an eight-year decline in cigarette smoking. The government says that approximately 440,000 people die each year from lung cancer and other maladies related to tobacco use (source: Reuters).

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million

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Ultra Petrol. - UPL - close: 52.55 change: -0.13 stop: 51.95

UPL traded higher this morning but failed to breakout over the $55.00 level. We are still waiting for a breakout and a move to our trigger to buy calls at $55.05. Oil stocks probably moved higher today after news surfaced that Nigerian rebels fought with their country's army as the rebels tried to take an oil tanker. Plus the rising rhetoric out of Iran doesn't help the geo-political situation any.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/09/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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Valero Energy - VLO - close: 53.26 change: -0.53 stop: 53.49

We don't see any change from our previous updates. We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $57.55. If triggered we'll target a move into the $62.50-63.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - cls: 63.93 change: -1.73 stop: 70.11

AAPL is making some strong progress toward our goal. The stock lost 2.6% today and is nearing our target in the $63.00-62.00 range. Conservative traders might want to exit at $63.50. More aggressive traders might want to aim lower toward $60.00.

Picked on March 05 at $ 67.72
Change since picked: - 3.79
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = million

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 81.02 chg: -0.12 stop: 81.05

IBM traded right to resistance near $82.00 and failed. Aggressive traders might want to use today's failed rally as a new bearish entry point. We are going to wait. Our plan is unchanged with a trigger to buy puts at $78.89.

Picked on March xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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KB Home - KBH - close: 62.18 chg: -1.17 stop: 68.05

Yesterday's oversold bounce appears to have already exhausted itself. KBH reversed course and lost 1.8% today. The DJUSHB index lost 1.99%. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $60.50-60.00 range.

Picked on March 06 at $ 64.75
Change since picked: - 2.57
Earnings Date 03/22/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Building Materials - BMHC - cls: 65.59 chg: +0.02 stop: n/a

BMHC tried to bounce today but the rally failed near its simple 10-dma (around $68.00). The early morning strength was fueled by a new "buy" rating from an analyst firm. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our target is at breakeven ($8.20). Keep an eye on the March $70 puts (BGU-ON). More conservative traders may want to think about exiting early to recoup some of their capital.

Picked on December 18 at $ 80.95
Change since picked: -15.36
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 527 thousand

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Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 42.80 chg: +0.08 stop: n/a

We don't see any change from our previous updates. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45. We are aiming for a rise to $5.95.

Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Change since picked: - 2.76
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Loews Corp. - LTR - close: 94.66 change: +0.55 stop: n/a

LTR has not performed well for our speculative strangle play. The stock is trading near the $95.00 level and shares might just churn sideways here until after options expiration. Future movement probably depends on a decisive move in the broader markets. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Buying this strangle was a bet that LTR will be trading at more than $102 (above resistance) or less than $88 (under support) by March expiration. The options in our strangle are the March $100 calls (LTR-CT) and the March $90 puts (LTR-OR). Our estimated cost is $1.75.

Picked on February 13 at $ 95.72
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 02/16/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 513 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 64.83 change: -1.63 stop: n/a

RYL's oversold bounce from Wednesday has already rolled over. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN). Our estimated cost is $7.00. Our target is $12.00.

Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Change since picked: -10.36
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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