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Call Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 62.75 chg: +0.42 stop: 57.65

The rebound in AAPL that began yesterday faltered a bit today. A pull back in the broader market didn't help any. We warned readers yesterday that this was an aggressive, speculation play on a rebound from the 200-dma. We see no other changes from yesterday's play description although readers can keep an eye out for a dip to and a bounce near the $60 level as a new entry point. Our temporary target is the $67.50-68.50 range.

Picked on March 29 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: + 0.42
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 34.2 million

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Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 103.00 chg: +0.35 stop: 96.95

Crude oil futures soared to over $67 a barrel. Geo-political tensions are rising. The U.N. Security Council told Iran that it had 30 days to freeze its uranium enrichment program but the Iranian government rejected any such move. Shares of APC did post another gain today but the stock was well off its highs for the session. We would not be surprised to see a dip to the $102 region. Our target is the $109.50-110.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 28 at $102.10
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 04/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Burlington NrthSanta Fe - BNI - cls: 83.11 chg: +0.84 stop: 78.99

BNI shrugged off the market weakness and transportation sector weakness and instead closed at a new high. Volume came in above the daily average on today's gain. The rise in crude oil futures pushes fuel costs higher but investors seem to be buying the railroads, which are more fuel-efficient than the truckers or airliners. Our target is the $87.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over BNI's late April earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $ 82.51
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - close: 138.45 change: -0.58 stop: 131.99

Concerns over rising interest rates and rising bond yields undermined the financial sector. The broker stocks struggled to maintain their gains. BSC managed to hit a new high today over the $140 level but lost it. The failed-rally type move today suggests BSC may be due for a stronger dip toward support. Our target is the $144-145.00 range.

Picked on March 24 at $137.65
Change since picked: + 0.80
Earnings Date 06/15106 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 64.48 chg: -0.32 stop: 61.45

Oil-giant COP failed to rally on another rise in crude oil futures today. The trading action suggests that COP might pull back and retest the $64.00 or $63.00 levels before moving higher. Don't forget that COP is due to complete its acquisition of BR this weekend and we don't know if the transaction will have an impact on COP's shares come Monday.

Picked on March 29 at $ 64.80
Change since picked: - 0.32
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.5 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 79.78 change: +0.36 stop: 74.95

DE continues to show relative strength and has pushed past resistance at the $79.50 region and is now testing round-number resistance at $80.00. Volume came in well above the daily average today. Our target is the $84.00-85.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $112 target.

Picked on March 22 at $ 77.29
Change since picked: + 2.49
Earnings Date 05/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Grainger W.W.Inc. - GWW - close: 75.76 change: +0.13 stop: 73.95

Be careful here! Some bullish analyst comments this morning sparked a breakout in GWW this morning but the stock failed to maintain its gains. The breakout over $76 was strong enough to hit our trigger at $76.51 so the play is now open but we would not suggest new call positions with GWW under $76.00. Our target is the $79.90-80.00 range. The analyst this morning has an $87 target but suggested GWW could trade near $100 over the next couple of years.

Picked on March 30 at $ 76.51
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 04/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 449 thousand

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 143.54 change: -0.38 stop: 140.79

LEH is still hovering around support near its rising 50-dma. We remain bullish on the stock but keep your stop loss tight. A breakdown under the 50-dma (142.40) or the $141.50 level would be pretty negative! We do expect some resistance near $150 but our target is the $153-155 range.

Picked on March 22 at $144.61
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 06/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Nabors Inds. - NBR - close: 73.78 chg: +3.08 stop: 68.85*new*

Wow! The rally in NBR just refuses to slow down. The stock gapped higher above its 50-dma and soared to a 4.3% gain on above average volume. In the news today shareholders approved the proposal to increase the stock's authorized shares so the company can split the stock 2-for-1. As disclosed earlier NBR is set to split 2:1 on April 18th. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider exiting right now. Our target is the $74.00-75.00 range. We are raising our stop loss to breakeven at $68.85.

Picked on March 28 at $ 68.85*gap higher*
Change since picked: + 4.93
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 84.50 chg: +1.55 stop: 79.95

Well we did not have to wait long to see PCU trade over our trigger. Metal and mining stocks were a pocket of strength in the market today. It certainly helped having gold futures soaring toward $600 an ounce. Plus, rival copper producer Phelps Dodge (PD) was upgraded today and PD added 5.7% on rising volume. PCU's gain today was on above average volume as well and the MACD has produced a new buy signal. The good news here is that PCU has broken out above its two-month trendline of resistance. The bad news is that PCU has gapped above our trigger at $84.05 and shares gave back a significant portion of its intraday gains. We are adjusting our entry point to $84.50, today's opening trade. Watch for a dip back to $83.50 so that PCU can "fill the gap". We would use the pull back as a new entry point. Our target is the $89.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 30 at $ 84.50*gap higher*
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Pantry Inc. - PTRY - close: 62.03 chg: -0.42 stop: 58.85

PTRY managed to hit another new high today but gave back all of its gains and then some. We would still be ready for a dip back toward the $60 level. Our target is the $67.00-68.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $ 61.85
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 364 thousand

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Rio Tinto - RTP - close: 208.48 chg: +9.49 stop: 198.60*new*

Wow! RTP turned in a very strong day. This mining stock gapped open at $205.00 and rose to an intraday high of $209.41. Volume was above the daily average. The breakout over the $200 level is also bullish. Driving the move was strong gains for the metals. Gold and silver are trading at 20+ year highs. It didn't hurt that copper producer PD was upgraded today and that the Australian stock market rallied to a record high. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider exiting early right here. Our target is the $210-212 range. We are raising our stop loss to $198.60.

Picked on March 26 at $198.60
Change since picked: + 9.88
Earnings Date 02/06/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 326 thousand

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Schlumberger - SLB - close: 128.23 chg: +1.43 stop: 119.99*new*

Another rise in crude oil helped fuel a third day of gains for the oil services' sector breakout. Also enjoying the relative strength was SLB. The stock is nearing our target in the $129.75-130.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $144 target. Please note that SLB is due to split 2-for-1 on April 10th. Our post-split target will be the $64.87-65.00 range. We do not want to hold over the April 21st earnings report. We are raising our stop loss to $119.99.

Picked on March 23 at $123.02
Change since picked: + 5.21
Earnings Date 04/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million

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Toyota Motor Corp. - TM - close: 110.15 chg: +0.89 stop: 105.95*new*

It was a positive day for TM. The company's A.D.R. shares traded in the U.S. broke out over round-number resistance at the $110 level. Volume improved somewhat but remains light. Our target is the $112.50-115.00 range. Traders with a longer-term horizon may want to aim higher. Please note that we are raising our stop loss to $105.95, just under the 50-dma.

Picked on March 12 at $106.68
Change since picked: + 3.47
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 438 thousand

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Tenaris - TS - close: 182.50 chg: +1.85 stop: 177.79

The trading action in TS is improving. More aggressive traders might want to risk bullish call positions here with a stop loss under $177.00. We are still going to wait for a breakout over $186. Our trigger to go long is $186.75. If triggered we will target a rally into the $198-200.00 range, which is consistent with the bullish P&F chart target.

Picked on March xx at $xxx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 553 thousand

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Valero Energy - VLO - close: 60.32 change: -0.01 stop: 56.45*new*

VLO failed to build on yesterday's breakout over the $60 level. We do not see any changes from our previous updates although we are going to raise our stop loss to $56.45, which is still under the 50-dma. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range.

Picked on March 15 at $ 57.55
Change since picked: + 2.77
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.7 million
 

Put Updates

Biosite Inc. - BSTE - close: 51.60 chg: +0.55 stop: 52.05

Bears continue to be in danger here. BSTE rose again and is nearing resistance at the $52.00 level. Short-term technical oscillators are starting to look bullish. More conservative traders may want to abandon this play early.

Picked on March 28 at $ 49.75
Change since picked: + 1.85
Earnings Date 03/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 261 thousand

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Gannett Co Inc. - GCI - close: 59.94 chg: +0.54 stop: 60.65

We have been warning readers to watch out for a bounce back toward the $60 level and GCI provided that bounce today. Volume was above average and that's bad news for the shorts. We are not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stop losses. There does appear to be another level of resistance at $60.50. Don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the April 12th earnings report.

Picked on March 19 at $ 59.04
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 04/12/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 48.30 chg: +0.33 stop: n/a

ECA has broken out over the $48.00 level. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45. We are aiming for a rise to $5.95.

Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Change since picked: + 2.74
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 69.51 change: -1.55 stop: n/a

Concerns over rising interest rates weighed on the homebuilders. The DJUSHB index lost 1.4%. Shares of RYL fell more than 2%. We are not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN).

Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Change since picked: - 5.68
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

MedcoHealth - MHS - close: 57.59 change: -1.27 stop: 57.95

We have been stopped out of MHS. The stock has broken down below support at the $58.00 range and we would have been stopped out at $57.95.

Picked on March 24 at $ 60.05
Change since picked: - 2.46
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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