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Call Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 62.65 chg: -0.07 stop: 57.65

AAPL tried to rally this morning but it couldn't hold on to the $64.00 level and the stock faded lower throughout the rest of the session. We suspect that AAPL's next move will be a dip back toward the $60 level, which should be bolstered by technical support with the 200-dma. Watch for a bounce from the $60 region as a new bullish entry point. We have been aiming for the simple 50-dma but that means we have a moving target. Currently the 50-dma is at $67.58. We're going to adjust our target to the $67.00-68.00 range. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops closer to the $60 level. FYI: in the news today one analyst firm downgraded their earnings estimates for AAPL.

Picked on March 29 at $ 62.30
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 34.2 million

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Arch Cap. Grp. - ACGL - cls: 58.06 chg: +0.32 stop: 55.95

ACGL continues to show relative strength. The stock added 0.55% and closed over the $58.00 level. We were suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $58.15 and the stock did hit our trigger today so the play is now open. Our target is a move into the $62.50-63.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 03 at $ 58.15
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 195 thousand

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Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 103.87 chg: +2.86 stop: 97.90

Oil stocks turned in a bit of a mixed performance today but generally the group was bullish with crude oil flirting with $68 a barrel. Shares of APC turned in an above average performance with a 2.8% rebound on above average volume. This looks like a new entry point to buy calls given the move over $102. The P&F chart for APC is bullish with a spread triple-top breakout buy signal pointing to a $121 target. We are aiming for the $109.50-110.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 28 at $102.10
Change since picked: + 1.77
Earnings Date 04/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Burlington NrthSanta Fe - BNI - cls: 85.50 chg: +2.17 stop: 79.95*new*

Transport stocks turned in another gain today despite the rise in crude oil futures. Shares of BNI were leading the pack with a 2.6% rally on strong volume. The stock is hitting new highs and the breakout over $84.00 (and $85) is certainly bullish. Our target is the $87.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over BNI's late April earnings report. Please note we are raising the stop loss to $79.95.

Picked on March 27 at $ 82.51
Change since picked: + 2.99
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - close: 138.67 change: -0.03 stop: 131.99

The broker-dealer index (XBD.X) traded sideways today and shares of BSC were no exception. The stock tried to breakout over the $140 level but could not hold on to its gains. We do not see any change from our weekend update. We would watch for a dip before considering new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $144-145.00 range.

Picked on March 24 at $137.65
Change since picked: + 1.02
Earnings Date 06/15106 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 64.41 chg: +1.26 stop: 61.45

COP turned in a strong session. The stock added almost 2% after two different analyst firms offered positive comments on the stock and labeled COP with an "out perform" and an "over weight". We see the bounce as a new bullish entry point. Our target for COP is the $69-70 range. The P&F chart for COP is bullish with a triangle breakout and an $82 target.

Picked on March 29 at $ 64.80
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.5 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 80.01 change: +0.96 stop: 74.95

The rally continues for DE. We were expecting some profit taking but DE reversed course and broke out over round-number resistance at the $80.00 level today. Volume came in above average on the gain and that's a good sign for the bulls. Our target is the $84.00-85.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $112 target.

Picked on March 22 at $ 77.29
Change since picked: + 2.72
Earnings Date 05/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Grainger W.W.Inc. - GWW - close: 75.68 change: +0.33 stop: 73.95

GWW rallied higher this morning but momentum faded and the stock closed well off its highs for the session. We recently suggested that readers look for a move over $76.00 or $76.50 as a new entry point to buy calls. GWW provided that entry point this morning but it's starting to look like another bull trap. Be careful and double-check your stop loss placement. The MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal.

Picked on March 30 at $ 76.51
Change since picked: - 0.83
Earnings Date 04/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 449 thousand

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 144.82 change: +0.29 stop: 140.79

Same story, different stock. LEH rebounded higher this morning only to see the rally fade this afternoon. We do not see any change from our weekend update. The MACD indicator on the daily chart is nearing a new buy signal. We are keeping our stop under support near $141. More conservative types might want to play their stop loss closer to the 50-dma near $142.50. We do expect some resistance near $150 but our target is the $153-155 range.

Picked on March 22 at $144.61
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 06/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Nabors Inds. - NBR - close: 70.88 chg: -0.70 stop: 68.85

NBR experienced some more profit taking today but the selling closed right at its simple 50-dma. Shares might also find support at the $70.00 level. We continue to target the $74.00-75.00 range. Don't forget that NBR is due to split 2-for-1 on April 18th. Don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 28 at $ 68.85*gap higher*
Change since picked: + 2.03
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million

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Southern Peru Copper - PCU - close: 85.60 chg: +1.12 stop: 79.95

Metal and mining stocks were a bright spot in the market again on Monday. We do not see any change from our weekend update for PCU. The P&F chart points to a $102 target. We are aiming for a rally into the $89.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 30 at $ 84.50*gap higher*
Change since picked: + 1.10
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Panera Bread - PNRA - close: 73.56 chg: -1.62 stop: 71.95

Wow! What timing. PNRA hasn't seen a one-day 2% decline in a while and it happened on the first day of trading for our new call play with PNRA. The candlestick formed today looks bearish but we would watch for a bounce back over the $74.00-74.25 levels as a new entry point to buy calls. The P&F chart for PNRA points to a $102 target. Our target will be the $79.50-80.00 range.

Picked on April 02 at $ 75.18
Change since picked: - 1.62
Earnings Date 05/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 458 thousand

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Pantry Inc. - PTRY - close: 63.30 chg: +0.91 stop: 58.85

PTRY is slowing drifting higher. We do not see any change from our weekend update. Our target is the $67.00-68.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $78 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 26 at $ 61.85
Change since picked: + 1.48
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 364 thousand

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Toyota Motor Corp. - TM - close: 110.35 chg: +1.45 stop: 105.95

TM closed at a new high today just as the Japanese NIKKEI index hit new six-year highs. We remain bullish and continue to target the $112.50-115.00 range. Traders with a longer-term horizon may want to aim higher.

Picked on March 12 at $106.68
Change since picked: + 3.67
Earnings Date 02/07/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 438 thousand

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Tenaris - TS - close: 186.31 chg: +5.64 stop: 177.79

Shares of TS turned in a strong day with a 3% rally on above average volume. Today's strength is improving the short-term technical picture. More importantly the stock traded to a new high on an intraday basis and hit our trigger to buy calls at $186.75. Now that the play is open our target is the $198-200 range. Keep your eyes and ears open for news this coming Thursday when TS will hold an investor conference.

Picked on April 03 at $186.75
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 05/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 553 thousand

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Valero Energy - VLO - close: 58.97 change: -0.81 stop: 56.45

We don't like the relative weakness in VLO today but we can thank Goldman Sachs for the stock's under performance. The analyst firm downgraded the stock to "in-line" from "out perform". We suspect that the stock will retest support near its 50-dma around $56.80. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range.

Picked on March 15 at $ 57.55
Change since picked: + 1.42
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.7 million
 

Put Updates

Biomet - BMET - close: 34.78 chg: -0.74 stop: 36.21

Our new put play in BMET is off to a good start. The stock lost just over 2% on above average volume, which is a bearish signal. Our target is going to be the $32.50-32.00 range.

Picked on April 02 at $ 35.52
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 03/21/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Gannett Co Inc. - GCI - close: 60.30 chg: +0.38 stop: 60.65

The oversold bounce in GCI continues. Bears are in danger here. GCI has been bouncing on above average volume for three days now. Today's close over $60 is another warning sign. The long-term trend remains bearish but short-term GCI is moving higher. We are in danger of being stopped out at $60.65. The high today was $60.60. We are not suggesting new bearish positions.

Picked on March 19 at $ 59.04
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 04/12/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Texas Industries - TXI - cls: 58.04 chg: -2.45 stop: 61.35

We wanted to see some confirmation of the bearish reversal and TXI delivered. The stock lost another 4% today on strong volume. Our trigger to buy puts was at $59.25. Our target is the $55.50-55.00 range.

Picked on April 03 at $ 59.25
Change since picked: - 1.21
Earnings Date 03/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 392 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 47.10 chg: +0.37 stop: n/a

We do not see any change from our weekend update. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45.

Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 68.93 change: -0.47 stop: n/a

We do not see any change from our weekend update. We are not suggesting new strangle positions. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN).

Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Change since picked: - 6.26
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

Rio Tinto - RTP - close: 212.00 chg: +5.00 stop: 198.60

Target achieved. Monday was another strong session for the metal and mining stocks. RTP participated in the sector rally with a 2.4% gain on strong volume. Our target was the $210-212 range.

Picked on March 26 at $198.60
Change since picked: +13.40
Earnings Date 02/06/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 326 thousand

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Schlumberger - SLB - close: 127.30 chg: +0.73 stop: 119.99

Target achieved. Early strength in the oil sector helped SLB rally to $131.99 before paring its gains. Our target was the $129.75-130.00 range. If you didn't exit we would suggest caution. This looks like a short-term top/failed rally. Don't forget that SLB is due to split 2-for-1 on April 10th.

Picked on March 23 at $123.02
Change since picked: + 4.28
Earnings Date 04/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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