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Call Updates

Arch Cap. Grp. - ACGL - cls: 57.86 chg: -0.05 stop: 55.95

ACGL continues to consolidate sideways but given the intraday action today our suspicion that shares will test the $57.00 level are only growing stronger. We're not suggesting new bullish positions. We'd rather wait and watch for a bounce near $57 as a potential entry point. Our target is currently the $62.50-63.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 03 at $ 58.15
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 195 thousand

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Amerada Hess - AHC - close: 143.89 chg: -1.31 stop: 139.95

News that crude oil inventory levels in the U.S. rose again sparked some profit taking in oil and oil stocks despite growing concerns over a confrontation with Iran. AHC continued to dip lower but the stock appeared to be on the rebound late this afternoon. We would wait for a bounce back over $146 before considering new bullish positions. Currently our target is the $154.00-155.00 range. We do not want to hold over the April 26th earnings report.

Picked on April 05 at $146.51
Change since picked: - 2.62
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 103.67 chg: -2.11 stop: 98.90

We warned readers to expect a dip to the 10-dma and APC delivered today. If shares don't bounce near the $103 level then the stock may be headed for technical support at the 50-dma, near round number support at $100. Our target remains the $109.50-110 range. The P&F chart remains bullish with a breakout buy signal that points to a $127 target. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 28 at $102.10
Change since picked: + 1.57
Earnings Date 04/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

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Burlington NrthSanta Fe - BNI - cls: 83.03 chg: +0.49 stop: 79.95

Transportation stocks managed to post a gain today thanks in part to a strong session for Boeing. We are encouraged by the intraday rebound in shares of BNI today and this might be a new bullish entry point. Our target is the $87.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over BNI's late April earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $ 82.51
Change since picked: + 0.52
Earnings Date 04/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 67.33 chg: -0.03 stop: 62.45

We see no change from our previous updates on COP. Short-term support appears to be in the $64.50-65.50 region. Our target for COP is the $69.00-70.00 range.

Picked on March 29 at $ 64.80
Change since picked: + 2.53
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.5 million

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 148.98 change: +0.98 stop: 143.49

LEH produced a bit of a bounce today and the long-term trend remains bullish but short-term it's a toss up with the technical indicators pointing both directions. The bounce from $148 is encouraging. We are suggesting that readers consider selling half their positions at $153.00 and then sell the second half of their position at $159.00. More conservative traders may want to exit completely near $152.50-153.00.

Picked on March 22 at $144.61
Change since picked: + 4.37
Earnings Date 06/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Marvell Tech. - MRVL - close: 56.51 change: +0.02 stop: 54.99

The semiconductor sector tried to bounce today but it did not make it very far. Shares of MRVL produced an even weaker bounce. We're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on April 06 at $ 60.18
Change since picked: - 3.67
Earnings Date 05/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Put Updates

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 69.97 chg: -0.27 stop: 72.55

Rival biotech firm Genentech (DNA) reported earnings that were better than expected and the company gave positive guidance but the stock still sold off on the news. The positive earnings news helped fuel a bounce in the rest of the sector but shares of AMGN under performed and closed under the $70.00 level. Our target for AMGN is the $65.50 mark. Don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the April 18th earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $ 69.90
Change since picked: + 0.07
Earnings Date 04/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.7 million

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Apollo Group - APOL - close: 52.56 chg: -0.22 stop: 53.31

We see no change from our weekend update for APOL. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $49.85, which is under support at the $50.00 level. If triggered we will have two targets. Our first target is the $45.50-45.00 range. Conservative traders can exit here, the rest of us we're suggesting sell half their position. We'll keep the other half open and target a decline into the $41.00-40.00 range, which is closer to the bottom of its channel.

Picked on April xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 06/22/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 84.61 chg: +0.70 stop: 90.01

ESRX continued to bounce today but the bounce began to fail after the stock filled the gap down from Monday morning. Plus, volume was pretty mild today suggesting a lack of confidence or conviction. This may be the failed rally we're looking for but watch for a decline back under $84 to initiate positions. Our short-term target is the $80.25-80.00 range. However, more aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The H&S pattern points to a target in the $73-74 range, which, coincidentally is where you'll find the simple 200-dma. We do not want to hold over the April 26th earnings report.

Picked on April 09 at $ 85.39
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Genzyme Corp. - GENZ - close: 64.89 chg: +1.49 stop: 68.01

It looks like bulls were inspired (or the shorts were scared) by the strong earnings news coming from DNA. Shares of GENZ rallied higher right from the opening bell. However, the momentum stalled once GENZ hit resistance near $65.00. Watch for a failed rally in the $65.00-65.50 range as a new entry point. Yet keep in mind we have a short time frame here since we plan to exit ahead of earnings next week. Our target is the $61.00-60.00 range.

Picked on April 10 at $ 63.97 *gap lower*
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 04/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Overseas Shipping - OSG - cls: 47.45 chg: -0.65 stop: 50.01

OSG lost 1.35% today on strong volume, which is a good sign for the bears. Shares also closed under what could have been support at the $47.50 level. We see no changes from our Tuesday play description. Our target will be the $43.00-42.50 range. Please note there is some support near $46.00 and we do anticipate a bounce there but the prevailing pattern is bearish. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 11 at $ 48.10
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 469 thousand

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Reynolds American - RAI - close: 104.78 chg: +1.15 stop: 108.01

RAI produced an oversold bounce today but the rally struggled near the $105 level and resistance at the 50-dma (105.45). Watch for a new decline from here as a new bearish entry point to buy puts. Our target is the 100-dma near the $100.00 mark. We'll use an exit range of $100.50-100.00. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 09 at $104.97
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 637 thousand

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Texas Ind. - TXI - close: 58.52 chg: +0.18 stop: 61.11

TXI failed to do much of anything on Wednesday. The stock consolidated sideways in a narrow range on low volume. We remain bearish but more conservative traders may want to wait for a drop below $57.90 before initiating positions. Our target will be the simple 200-dma in the $54.00-53.50 range. A move under $57.00 would produce a new P&F chart sell signal.

Picked on April 11 at $ 58.34
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 06/29/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 423 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Encana Corp. - ECA - close: 47.66 chg: +0.31 stop: n/a

We are not suggesting new positions. Our strangle strategy involves the April $50 calls (ECA-DJ) and the April $40 puts (ECA-PH). Our estimated cost is $3.45.

Picked on January 10 at $ 45.56
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 02/15/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 68.60 change: -1.11 stop: n/a

We do not see any change from our weekend update for RYL. We are not suggesting new plays. Our play involves the April $80 calls (RYL-DP) and the April $70 puts (RYL-PN).

Picked on January 22 at $ 75.19
Change since picked: - 6.47
Earnings Date 01/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
 

Dropped Calls

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 64.41 chg: -1.04 stop: 64.74

The homebuilders continue to suffer as investors worry over rising bond yields and interest rates. BZH broke down under its simple 200-dma today and we were stopped out at $64.74.

Picked on April 06 at $ 68.78
Change since picked: - 4.37
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 84.05 change: +3.10 stop: 76.90

Target achieved. Shares of DE gapped higher at the open this morning and surged to over $84.00 on strong volume today. The move was fueled by positive analyst comments. Prudential raised their price target on the stock from $83 to $100 on positive earnings expectations. Our target was the $84.00-85.00 range.

Picked on March 22 at $ 77.29
Change since picked: + 6.76
Earnings Date 05/16/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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