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Call Updates

Arch Cap. Grp. - ACGL - cls: 59.11 chg: -0.15 stop: 56.95

ACGL is still consolidating sideways and we see no changes from our weekend update. ACGL is due to report earnings on April 27th and we do not want to hold over the announcement. We will plan to exit on Wednesday near the closing bell. Our target will remain at $62.50.

Picked on April 03 at $ 58.15
Change since picked: + 0.96
Earnings Date 04/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 195 thousand

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Alliance Res. Ptrnrs - ARLP - close: 40.68 chg: +1.70 stop: 36.45

We were lucky today. Our research put ARLP's next earnings report around May 2nd. To our surprised the company reported earnings today. The results were positive and the stock shot higher closing with a 4.3% gain on big volume. Shares have pushed through resistance at $40.00 and its 200-dma. The question now is will ARLP see any follow through higher since the earnings news is already out. We are not suggesting new positions at current levels. Our target is the $42.00-42.50 range.

Picked on April 23 at $ 38.98
Change since picked: + 1.70
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 101 thousand

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Cummins - CMI - close; 110.70 chg: +1.03 stop: 105.95

CMI displayed some relative strength today. The stock bounced from the $109.20 region for the second time in two days. The close back over $110 is positive. If the company wasn't expected to report earnings this Friday we might consider new bullish positions. Our target is the $112.00-112.50 range. More conservative traders may want to tighten stops.

Picked on April 16 at $106.75
Change since picked: + 3.95
Earnings Date 04/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 804 thousand

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Lehman Brothers - LEH - close: 154.00 chg: -1.09 stop: 147.75

Over the weekend we suggested that our readers consider locking in some profits in LEH. Shares of the stock managed to pare their losses today but LEH still looks vulnerable to more profit taking. Will the stock find support at the simple 10-dma again or will it dip back to the $150 region. Short-term technical oscillators are heading lower. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time and we have one week before LEH splits 2-for-1. We'd really like to exit ahead of the stock split, which is an event that could reduce LEH's volatility. We have been suggesting that readers consider selling half their positions at $153.00 and then sell the second half of their position at $159.00.

Picked on March 22 at $144.61
Change since picked: + 9.39
Earnings Date 06/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

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Acc. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 55.51 chg: -0.80 stop: 52.95

LEND is still consolidating sideways above broken resistance at the $55.00 level. Volume was relatively light today and that's probably what we want to see with our bullish bias. Considering the weakness across the rest of the market today we would not be surprised to see LEND pull back and retest the $54.00 level again. A bounce from $54.00 (or $55) could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 2nd earnings report and that gives us less than five trading days.

Picked on April 19 at $ 56.57
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand

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Progressive - PGR - close: 107.50 chg: +1.04 stop: 103.95

PGR displayed some relative strength today. Shares spiked higher on the open in a delayed reaction to the Friday afternoon stock split announcement. The good news here is that traders bought the dip near $106 and pushed PGR to close over its simple 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout over $108.00 or over $110 and its 100-dma, both of which could act as overhead resistance. We have a two-week time frame as we do not want to hold over the May 8th earnings report. Our target is the $114.00-115.00 range.

Picked on April 23 at $106.46
Change since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 846 thousand
 

Put Updates

Overseas Shipping - OSG - cls: 48.63 chg: -0.08 stop: 50.01

OSG continued to slip lower today. We are surprised that OSG did not fall further after one analyst firm lowered their price target on the stock. The P&F chart is bearish with a bearish catapult breakdown sell signal that points to a $43 target. We are targeting the $43.00-42.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report so we only have about five trading days.

Picked on April 11 at $ 48.10
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 05/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 469 thousand

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Whole Foods - WFMI - close: 63.06 chg: -0.85 stop: 66.05

So far so good. WFMI continued lower on Monday confirming Friday's breakdown under short-term support near $64.00. The sell signal in the daily chart's MACD is getting stronger. The P&F chart looks pretty bearish with a $43.00 target. We are only going to aim for a decline into the $60.25-60.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim lower. The biggest challenge is probably the time frame. We do not want to hold over the May 3rd earnings report.

Picked on April 23 at $ 63.91
Change since picked: - 0.85
Earnings Date 05/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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There are currently no strangle plays.
 

Dropped Calls

Marvell Tech. - MRVL - close: 56.51 chg: -1.08 stop: 55.99

We have been stopped out at $55.99. We urged caution over the weekend after MRVL's bearish reversal. Today's decline only confirms the turnaround although the stock has not yet broken support at the $55.00 level. Short-term technical oscillators have certainly turned lower.

Picked on April 06 at $ 60.18
Change since picked: - 3.67
Earnings Date 05/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.9 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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