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Call Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 71.13 chg: -0.01 stop: 68.45

Uh-oh! Reversal alert. Not only did AAPL failed to join the markets in a generally widespread rally on Thursday but the stock broke through resistance at $72.00 only to reverse course. We have been triggered at $72.25 so the play is now open but we're not suggesting new positions right here. We would either look for a bounce from the $70.00 level or it simple 10-dma or wait for a new relative high. Our target is the $77.45-80.00 range.

Picked on May 04 at $ 72.25
Change since picked: - 1.12
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 36.0 million


Progressive - PGR - close: 107.00 chg: +0.44 stop: 103.95

PGR did manage to rally with the markets today but failed to breakout over the $108 level or the 200-dma. It is our plan to exit tomorrow near the closing bell but more conservative traders may want to exit earlier, like tomorrow morning. PGR is due to announce earnings on Monday, May 8th but that date is still unconfirmed. More aggressive traders might want to think about holding their positions. The stock is due to split 4-for-1 on May 19th.

Picked on April 23 at $106.46
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 05/08/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 846 thousand


Red Hat - RHAT - close: 30.97 chg: +0.15 stop: 28.81

RHAT did continue higher on Thursday and hit a new five-year high over the $31.00 level today. Shares even hit our trigger to buy calls at $31.11. Unfortunately, it failed to hold most of its gains. We would not suggest new bullish positions with RHAT under $31.00. Now that the play is open our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on May 04 at $ 31.11
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 06/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

Put Updates

Affiliated Mangers - AMG - cls: 98.01 chg: +1.12 stop: 102.55

Financial stocks tried to rally today but as a group they didn't seem to get very far. Shares of AMG rose 1.1% but volume came in below average suggesting a lack of confidence behind the move. We would watch for a failed rally near the $100 level as the next bearish entry point to buy puts. The 10-dma and 50-dma should offer additional overhead resistance. We do see two obstacles for the bears. The simple 100-dma, currently at 94.10, and the $95.00 level might offer some support. Conservative traders may want to exit near the 100-dma. We would expect a bounce near $95. Our target is the $92.00-90.00 range.

Picked on May 01 at $ 97.45
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 04/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 637 thousand


Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 34.48 chg: +0.52 stop: 36.51

AMZN was due for a bit of a bounce and an analyst upgrade to a "hold" helped the stock turned in a 1.5% gain today. Watch for resistance near $35.00 and/or its simple 10-dma. Our target is the $31.00-30.75 range.

Picked on May 01 at $ 34.85
Change since picked: - 0.37
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million


Atheros Comm. - ATHR - close: 25.86 chg: +0.21 stop: 26.51

Semiconductor stocks continued to rally today after some positive analyst comments on semi-equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT). The SOX index rose 1.3%. Shares of ATHR added 0.8% but failed to hold on to its breakout over short-term resistance near $26.00. We remain very cautious here. The lack of volume on the bounce is a weakness in the bull's case here but the bulls seem to be more in control than the bears. We're not suggesting new plays here.

Picked on May 01 at $ 23.77
Change since picked: + 2.09
Earnings Date 04/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million


Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 74.81 chg: -0.12 stop: 79.01

RIMM's failure to rally higher with the tech sector today could be good news for the bears. We remain bearish but hesitate to suggest new positions right here. Our target is the $71.00-70.00 range but more aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on April 30 at $ 76.63
Change since picked: - 1.82
Earnings Date 07/06/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)


Fedex - FDX - close: 118.20 chg: +4.02 stop: n/a

The Dow Jones Transportation index rallied to a new all-time high today. This helped lift shares of FDX to a 3.5% gain on strong volume. It looks like the call side of our strangle may end up being the winning bet. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. We were suggesting the June $120 calls and the June $110 puts. This is a bet that FDX will trade significantly north of $120 or under $110 by June option expiration. Our estimated cost is about $2.60.

Picked on April 30 at $115.13
Change since picked: + 3.07
Earnings Date 06/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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