Carpenter Tech. - CRS - cls: 110.94 chg: +1.83 stop: 111.45
The volatility continues in CRS. Shares gapped higher to open at $115.45 but failed to make it much higher. The stock churned sideways much of the session before succumbing to the market-wide sell-off late in the day. We remain wary. We listed CRS as a potential hedge versus our put candidates in the iron/steel/metals industry. So far the stock continues to look bearish in spite of today's bounce. We'll keep our trigger to buy calls at $116.51 active for now but this remains a high-risk, aggressive play. If triggered we'll target a rebound into the $123.00-125.00 range.
Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Deere Co - DE - close: 84.62 chg: +1.34 stop: 83.29
Shares of DE produced a strong bounce this morning. The stock traded to $86.18 at its peak. Our trigger to buy calls was at $84.71 so the play is now open. However, we are NOT suggesting new positions. As a matter of fact, today's failed rally late this afternoon looks so bearish that anyone who opened bullish positions this morning should strongly consider closing them. Odds look good that we'll be stopped out tomorrow at $83.29. If you think this bounce has legs then consider putting your stop under the recent lows near $82.00.
Picked on May 23 at $ 84.71
Getty Images - GYI - cls: 64.38 chg: -0.27 stop: 63.39 *new*
Danger! We have been ambushed by market and stock volatility again. GYI has been trying to breakout over resistance at the $65.00 level for days now. Shares gapped higher this morning to open at $65.80 after the company announced it has increased its stock buy back program from $100 million to $250 million. Our trigger to buy calls was at $65.15 but we're forced to take today's open instead. The stock tried to maintain the breakout over $65.00 for most of the day but the late-day market sell-off was too much and GYI slipped into the red. This looks like a bull trap. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. If GYI could bounce back into the $65.25-65.50 region then we might reconsider but right now we're expecting shares to slip back toward the simple 10-dma near $63.50. We are going to try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $63.39.
Picked on May 23 at $ 65.80 *gap higher*
Komag - KOMG - close: 42.71 chg: -1.69 stop: 41.99
KOMG tried to breakout over resistance at $46.00 and its 50-dma again this morning. The stock hit $46.05 but the rally quickly vanished. Shares ended up losing 3.8% on strong volume. This looks like a short-term double-top (bearish pattern) at the $46.00 level. We remain on the sidelines for now. Our trigger to buy calls is at $46.11. However, if KOMG closes under $42.00 we'll probably drop the stock as a bullish candidate.
Picked on May xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Omnicom - OMC - close: 91.80 chg: +0.28 stop: 90.64
OMC continues to buck the trend. The stock displayed relative strength again as it bounced back toward resistance near $92.00. We are not suggesting new plays at this time and more conservative types may just want to jump out now to protect their capital. You can always re-enter should OMC breakout to new highs later.
Picked on May 15 at $ 92.05
Occidental Petrol. - OXY - cls: 93.67 chg: +0.56 stop: 91.99
OXY is yet another oil-related issue that was strong this morning only to give back most of its gains this afternoon. We are not complaining with the rise in crude oil to over $71 a barrel but the oil stocks failed to hold their gains. Shares of OXY gapped higher to open at $95.90. Our trigger to buy calls was at $95.05 and we're forced to take today's open as our entry point. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The market weakness this afternoon looks ready to follow through into Wednesday and that suggests that we could be stopped out soon. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops here!
Picked on May 23 at $ 95.90
Apollo Group - APOL - close: 51.03 chg: -0.74 stop: 54.45*new*
Yesterday's bounce in APOL has failed and this looks like another entry point to buy puts on the stock. Our target is the $47.75-47.50 range near its early March lows. We do expect some support at the $50.00 level so it would not surprised us to see shares bounce around the $50-52 region for a while. We are inching the stop loss down to $54.45, near its 100-dma.
Picked on May 17 at $ 51.75
Franklin Res. - BEN - close: 87.78 chg: +0.22 close: 92.55
Like most stocks in the investment sector shares of BEN were strong this morning only to see the early rally fade away. We remain bearish and continue to target the $85.00-84.50 range. If you're looking for a new entry point consider today's failed rally as an opportunity but also consider using a tighter stop loss. The $90.00 mark looks like short-term resistance followed by the 200-dma near $91.75.
Picked on May 14 at $ 89.30
CB Richard Ellis - CBG - cls: 76.15 chg: -0.41 stop: 80.65 *new*
CBG turned in a somewhat volatile session. Shares spiked this morning to $79.00 only to fall to $74.20 before bouncing back again. Our target has been the $73.75-73.00 range to account for the rising 100-dma. Currently the 100-dma is at $73.63. We're going to adjust our target to the $74.00-73.50 range. We're also going to try and reduce our risk by putting the stop loss at $80.65, just over the 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to put their stop closer to $80.00 or today's high.
Picked on May 17 at $ 77.93
IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 76.38 chg: +0.33 stop: 78.05
Volume came in above average on today's session but IDXX did not make much headway. The stock barely bounced and failed to even test the descending 10-dma. We are not suggesting new put positions at this time. Our target is the $74.00-73.50 just above the simple 200-dma. FYI: the P&F chart points to a $64 target.
Picked on May 11 at $ 77.93
Ipsco Inc. - IPS - close: 91.31 chg: +1.61 stop: 97.55*new*
As we feared shares of IPS snapped back higher this morning but fortunately the rally stalled under the $95.00 level. By the closing bell IPS has given back much of its gains. This failed rally is good news for the bears but we hesitate to suggest new positions. If you do open a new put play consider using a stop near $95.00 or even above today's high (94.45). We are lowering our stop to $97.55. The P&F chart points to an $83 target. We are targeting the $85.50-84.50 range, which is above what we suspect will be support at its rising 200-dma.
Picked on May 18 at $ 93.95
Nucor - NUE - close: 102.32 chg: +2.07 stop: 108.41 *new*
Yesterday we warned readers to look out for a bounce back toward the $105-106 region. Shares of NUE made it to $106.25 before bowing under the weight of the market's afternoon sell-off. This failed rally is good news for the bears but NUE remains short-term oversold. We are going to lower our stop loss to $108.41, near the 10-dma and 50-dma. More conservative traders who have chosen to play this aggressive, high-risk candidate, might want to place their stop closer to today's high. Our target is the $95.50-95.00 range. FYI: NUE is due to split 2-for-1 on June 1st.
Picked on May 17 at $105.40
(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)
Fedex - FDX - close: 107.68 chg: -2.37 stop: n/a
Be ready! FDX tried to bounce this morning like many stocks but the rally failed and shares have produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. The move looks pretty bearish and the stock is poised to drop toward $105.00-102.50. Currently the June $110 puts (FDX-RB) is trading at $3.80bid/$4.00ask. We have been suggesting that readers exit if the option rises to $4.50 or more. We will close the play if that occurs. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since FDX looks weak right here! Just remember that we have less than four full weeks before June options expire. Our estimated cost was $2.60
Picked on April 30 at $115.13
Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 97.10 chg: -1.60 stop: 97.99
We have been hit with a worst-case scenario here. A strong rebound in crude oil fueled a big bounce in the oil stocks this morning. Shares of APC gapped open higher at $101.00, which was above our trigger to buy calls at $100.15. This move opened our play. Unfortunately the strength was short lived and oil stocks sold off again. APC fell back through our stop loss at $97.99 closing our play in the same session. The move looks very bearish and we are seriously considering a put play if APC trades under $95.00 or yesterday's low (95.86). FYI: APC is due to split 2-for-1 on May 29th.
Picked on May 23 at $101.00 *gap higher*