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Call Updates

Halliburton - HAL - close: 73.38 chg: -0.87 stop: 69.99

Traders bought the dip this morning near $72.30 but the midday strength didn't last. We are only two days into the week but so far HAL's weekly chart is painting a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. There are two upcoming events for HAL. One is a two-day analyst meeting that begins on June 7th. The other is a 2-for-1 stock split on July 17th.

Picked on May 25 at $ 73.80
Change since picked: - 0.42
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million

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Hydril - HYDL - close: 74.14 change: -0.31 stop: 71.75

Investors don't know how to react to the latest turn of events with Iran. The U.S. offer a major concession today and the world is waiting to see what Iran does next. Crude oil traded down to $72.50 a barrel. Meanwhile HYDL fell to $72.51 before bulls bought the dip. It looks like the stock is trying to produce a trend of higher lows but where HYDL goes from here is a guess. Given Monday's sell-off and the various technical indicators you could argue for either direction. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. If HYDL trades under $70.00 you might want to buy puts.

Picked on June 04 at $ 77.65
Change since picked: - 3.51
Earnings Date 07/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 328 thousand

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iShares Global Energy - IXC - cls: 103.04 chg: -0.85 stop: 99.49

The IXC iShares gapped down and closed with a 0.8% loss. Shares ended the session about where they opened, suggesting indecision by traders. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on May 25 at $103.67
Change since picked: + 0.63
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 47 thousand

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Kerr Mcgee - KMG - close: 107.61 chg: +0.61 stop: 104.85

Believe it or not KMG closed with a gain today. Traders bought the dip near $105.60 and KMG was on the rebound at the market's close. Today's rebound may have negated Monday's big bearish engulfing candlestick (reversal) pattern. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on June 04 at $110.86
Change since picked: - 3.25
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Marathon Oil - MRO - close: 77.01 chg: +0.01 stop: 72.95

MRO produced the thinnest of gains today. Traders bought the pull back near $76.00 as MRO held support at its 10 and 100-dma's today. We would probably wait for a move over $79.00 or $80.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Picked on June 04 at $ 78.39
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.1 million

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Omnicom - OMC - close: 95.30 chg: +0.41 stop: 91.75

OMC is bouncing from its simple 10-dma. Today's gain was a nice show of relative strength but we are not suggesting new positions. Traders might want to consider an early exit now to protect their gains. Our target is the $97.50-98.00 range.

Picked on May 15 at $ 92.05
Change since picked: + 3.25
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Priceline.com - PCLN - close: 31.53 chg: +0.22 stop: 29.85

PCLN displayed some relative strength today wit a 0.7% gain on strong volume (about twice the daily average). The MACD on the daily chart is looking bearish but we suspect that PCLN will trade higher tomorrow barring any big market declines. Our target is the $34.50 level.

Picked on May 25 at $ 30.67
Change since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 432 thousand

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Transocean Inc. - RIG - close: 79.96 chg: -0.61 stop: 77.99

RIG continued lower today but shares did pare their losses by the closing bell. The outlook has turned muddy. Some indicators are suggesting that RIG will bounce while some short-term oscillators like the RSI and stochastics have turned bearish. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on June 04 at $ 83.15
Change since picked: - 3.19
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.7 million

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VF Corp. - VFC - close: 64.46 change: +1.22 stop: 61.84

VFC displayed some great relative strength today. The stock added 1.9% to completely erase yesterday's losses. Volume on the rebound was about average. The move back over $63.50 and $64.00 looks like a new entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range.

Picked on June 01 at $ 63.51
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 545 thousand

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Valero Energy - VLO - close: 60.85 chg: +0.20 stop: 59.85

We were pleasantly surprised to see that VLO held support at the $60.00 level today. The bulls didn't make much progress as buyers struggling to get past the $61.50 level but posting any gain at all is relative strength on a day like today. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 04 at $ 63.05
Change since picked: - 2.20
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million
 

Put Updates

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 67.61 chg: +0.13 stop: 69.55

Biotech stocks managed a minor bounce today and AMGN followed suit. We remain bearish and continue to suggest puts with AMGN under $68.50. More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under $66.75-66.50 before initiating positions. Our target is the $62.65-62.25 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $60 target. We do expect a bounce near the $65.00 level. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report.

Picked on June 05 at $ 67.48
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million

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Apollo Group - APOL - close: 52.92 chg: +0.53 stop: 53.85

We are starting to grow a little bit concerned by APOL's relative strength. The stock remains under technical resistance at its simple 100-dma but shares definitely out performed the rest of the market on Tuesday. We are not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Look for a move back under $52.00 before considering positions. Our target is the $47.75-47.50 range. The $50.00 level is APOL's next level of support and we expect another bounce near $50.

Picked on May 17 at $ 51.75
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 06/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Franklin Res. - BEN - close: 87.53 chg: -0.61 close: 92.55

We do not see any changes from our previous updates on BEN. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop loss. Our target is the $85.25-85.00 range.

Picked on May 14 at $ 89.30
Change since picked: - 1.77
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Burlington Nrth.SntFe - BNI - cls: 76.76 chg: +1.12 stop: 80.01

We are getting jerked around with the transports (and railroad) stocks. Our recent call play on CSX was stopped out and now our new put play on BNI has bounced back into the green with above average volume. We would not suggest new put positions at this time. Watch for a failed rally under $78.00 or a new decline under $75.00 as potential entry points.

Picked on June 05 at $ 75.64
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Barr Pharma - BRL - close: 52.20 chg: -0.00 stop: 54.25

Shares of BRL traded sideways all session and closed unchanged. We do not see any changes from our new play description from Monday night. We are suggesting puts with BRL under $53.50. Our target is the $48.00-47.50 range near the May lows.

Picked on June 05 at $ 52.20
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Digital River - DRIV - close: 39.24 chg: -1.57 stop: 44.25*new*

Target achieved. DRIV has hit our initial target at the $40.20 mark. Shares plunged through potential support at the $40.00 level only to bounce near its exponential 200-dma. Volume was pretty strong on today's 3.8% decline. The afternoon bounce looks like it still has life left. Watch for a rebound into the $40-42 region. We are lowering our stop loss to $44.25 near the simple 10-dma. As a reminder we suggested that traders sell half their position at $40.20 and then sell the rest at $37.65.

Picked on June 04 at $ 43.56
Change since picked: - 4.32
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 983 thousand

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 79.76 chg: +0.70 stop: 81.05

Reversal alert! IBM broke down under support at $79.00 today only to rebound at $78.50 and close in the green. Volume came in above average. Our trigger to buy puts was at $78.75 so the play is now open. The problem is that IBM has reversed on us. Some news about IBM expanding its India operations met with some positive press. We are not suggesting new bearish plays at this time. Wait for a new decline under $78.75 or better yet $78.50 before considering put positions.

chart:

Picked on June 06 at $ 78.75
Change since picked: + 1.01
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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Monster Worldwide - MNST - cls: 46.20 chg: +0.35 stop: 50.05

MNST produced a minor oversold bounce today after an analyst firm upgraded the stock to an "out perform". The stock closed off its best levels of the session while volume came in more than double the daily average. We remain bearish and continue to target the $45.25-45.00 range.

Picked on May 31 at $ 48.87
Change since picked: - 2.67
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 51.40 chg: +0.99 stop: 55.15

Bulls bought the dip in NUE at $49.15 just above its rising 100-dma. The bounce doesn't look over yet so we'd watch for a rebound into the $53-54 region. After the bell NUE announced an increase into its dividend but we did not see any post-market reaction to the news. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is currently the $46.25 region.

Picked on May 31 at $ 52.64 *split adjusted
Change since picked: - 1.24
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 68.49 chg: -0.62 stop: 73.51

We do not see any changes from our new play description from Monday night on WYNN. One thing we would look for is a bounce to and failed rally near $70.00 or its 10-dma (71.09) as a new bearish entry point. We are going to suggest two targets. Consider selling half your position in the $65.25-65.00 range and then sell the rest of your position in the $61.00-60.00 range. The simple 200-dma near $60 could be support.

Picked on June 05 at $ 69.11
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Peabody Energy - BTU - close: 59.08 chg: -1.72 stop: 59.85

Tuesday was another rough day for coal stocks. Shares of BTU lost 2.8% and closed under potential support at $60.00 and its 50-dma. We would have been stopped out at $59.85. FYI: In the news it was revealed that the U.S. Supreme Court declared that they would "not review last year's ruling by West Virginia's highest court upholding the constitutionality of the state's coal severance taxes" (source: AP).

Picked on May 28 at $ 61.00
Change since picked: - 1.92
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million

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Cummins Inc - CMI - close: 107.40 chg: -1.75 stop: 106.99

The selling continued for a third day in shares of CMI. The stock closed with a 1.6% loss but shares hit $106.49 intraday. Our stop loss was at $106.99. The recent sell-off almost looks like the right shoulder on a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on CMI's daily chart.

Picked on May 31 at $110.21
Change since picked: - 2.81
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 64.97 chg: -1.50 stop: 65.90

CSX continued to sell off and on above average volume. We would have been stopped out at $65.90. If CSX trades under $64 again traders might want to consider bearish positions.

Picked on June 04 at $ 68.60
Change since picked: - 3.63
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

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Deere Co - DE - close: 82.00 change: -3.07 stop: 84.45

If you have been watching CNBC lately they have been talking about how investors are selling the winners. DE hit new highs back in early May and now the stock is being sold. Today's 3.6% decline was fueled by strong volume. We would have been stopped out at $84.45, under (failing) support near $85 and its 50-dma.

Picked on June 04 at $ 87.75
Change since picked: - 5.75
Earnings Date 08/15/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
 

Dropped Puts

SanDisk - SNDK - close: 54.56 chg: +0.44 stop: 60.26

Target achieved. SNDK may have produced a short-term bullish reversal with its rebound off the lows ($52.45) today. Fortunately, our target was the $53.00-52.50 range. Nimble traders might want to try and play a bounce if SNDK trades over its simple 10-dma. We'd aim for the $60 level, which is probably short-term overhead resistance.

Picked on May 23 at $ 58.98
Change since picked: - 4.42
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 11.1 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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