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Call Updates

Chipolte Mex Grill - CMG - cls: 60.98 chg: -0.78 stop: 57.45

Shares of CMG experienced an initial dip this morning and then proceeded to churn sideways in a narrow range for the rest of the session. We suggested over the weekend that readers wait for a pull back as a new entry point. While this qualifies we suspect that if you're patient we'll get a chance to buy calls closer to the $60.00 level (maybe $59.00). Just to make things clear would we buy calls here? Yes. However, our preferred entry would still be on a pull back closer to $60.00. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $75 target.

Picked on June 18 at $ 61.76
Change since picked: - 0.78
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 384 thousand

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 62.21 chg: -1.41 stop: 62.49

CTSH turned in a rather bearish session with a 2.2% decline and what almost looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Thankfully we're still on the sidelines. Our strategy calls for a trigger to buy call options at $65.05. More aggressive traders may want to jump in early around $64.35. Our target is the May highs in the $69.50-70.00 range.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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General Dynamics - GD - cls: 65.50 chg: -0.62 stop: 63.99

Over the weekend we said that our preferred entry point to buy calls would be a pull back into the $65.00-65.50 range. Well, shares of GD have delivered just such a pull back for us. The late afternoon bounce was off the simple 50-dma. Obviously if the major indices continue lower tomorrow then GD may follow suit. If you're feeling patient then sit back and wait to see if GD dips toward the $64.50 region or just wait for signs of a bounce from here before initiating positions. Our target is the $69.00-70.00 range.

Picked on June 18 at $ 66.12
Change since picked: - 0.62
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Google - GOOG - close: 388.14 chg: -2.56 stop: 384.50

GOOG tried to rally again this morning but was stymied by overhead resistance at its simple 50-dma. Short-term technical oscillators are actually starting to look bearish. Traders might want to consider put plays if GOOG trades under its 200-dma ($379) and the $375.00 level. We're sticking to our plan to buy calls with a trigger at $401.00 for now.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

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Legg Mason - LM - close: 100.14 chg: -2.31 stop: 96.99

Be careful here! We warned readers over the weekend to watch the XBD broker-dealer index. Well the XBD produced a failed rally today under its 200-dma and the sector index looks poised to move lower. You can see the affect the sector weakness had on LM today. We would definitely wait for some signs of strength in LM before considering new plays. More conservative traders may want to bail out early if shares traded under $98.80.

Picked on June 18 at $102.45
Change since picked: - 2.31
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 63.77 change: -0.53 stop: 64.45

MAN continues to suffer some profit taking after last week's big bounce. Another worrisome sign is the weekly chart's MACD has produced a new sell signal. We're still on the sidelines with a suggested trigger to buy calls at $66.05. We do not want to hold over the mid-July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 959 thousand

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Reynolds American - RAI - cls: 110.81 chg: -0.14 stop: 107.45

For a second day in a row shares of RAI have bounced around the $110.00-111.50 range. Shares were on the rebound higher heading into the closing bell. Not only is the technical picture somewhat bullish and the P&F chart bullish but investors tend to think of tobacco stocks as defensive plays. As the market's move lower RAI might be seen as a safe haven stock. We would continue to suggest calls with RAI above $110.00 but more conservative types might want to wait for a move over $111.50 first. We're going to suggest two targets. Our conservative target is $115.00. Our aggressive target is $119.00. We would keep a wary eye on larger rival Altria (MO), which has a bearish chart. A breakdown in MO would probably weigh on shares of RAI. The P&F chart for MO is bearish and points to $62.00.

Picked on June 15 at $111.15
Change since picked: - 0.34
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 632 thousand

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United Tech. - UTX - close: 60.90 chg: -0.85 stop: 58.75

A down day for the DJIA weighed on component stock UTX. Shares lost 1.3% but volume came in below average. Traders bought the dip near $60.25 and its 10-dma and 100-dma. The bounce off its lows this afternoon looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders may want to wait for signs of strength in the major averages first before considering new call positions here. Our target remains the $64.00-65.00 range.

Picked on June 08 at $ 60.13
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 57.20 chg: -0.36 stop: 60.05

AAPL is inching closer to a breakdown under support at the $57.00 level. Shares actually hit $57.00 this morning before bouncing. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $56.85 in an attempt to capture the next leg lower. For more info see this past weekend's newsletter. If triggered our target will be the $50.50-50.00 range. We do not want to hold over AAPL's mid July earnings report.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 33.1 million

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 65.75 chg: -1.07 stop: 68.55 *new*

Investors appeared to shrug off any positive news from the anemia drug tests that AMGN released today. The stock lost 1.6% and shares fell through recent support in the $66.50 region. Hastening the stock's decline was a 1.85% loss in the BTK biotech index. We do expect some sort of bounce at the $65.00 level but overall the pattern looks very weak for AMGN. We're lowering the stop loss to $68.55. Our target is the $62.65-62.25 range. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 05 at $ 67.48
Change since picked: - 1.73
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million

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Barr Pharma - BRL - close: 50.72 chg: -0.33 stop: 53.05

BRL is drifting lower toward support at the $50.00 level. If the markets continue to sink then we expect BRL to breakdown. The daily technicals on BRL are growing more negative. Our target is the $48.00-47.50 range. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop toward Thursday's high (52.61).

Picked on June 05 at $ 52.20
Change since picked: - 1.48
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Digital River - DRIV - close: 39.37 change: -0.84 stop: 42.55

DRIV continued lower on Monday following Friday's failed rally. The stock lost 2.08% today and traded through our entry point to buy puts at $39.45. The play is now open. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range.

Picked on June 19 at $ 39.45
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 66.82 chg: -1.26 stop: 70.10

Some positive analyst comments today were not enough to keep the oversold bounce alive. Shares of ESRX lost 1.85% on above average volume. This may be a new entry point for puts although we do not that shares found support at $66.50 today. Our conservative target at $65.25 has already been hit so we're now aiming for the $60.50 level. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $52.00 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 08 at $ 69.59
Change since picked: - 2.77
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Expeditors - EXPD - close: 99.16 chg: -0.19 stop: 100.35

Our aggressive put play with EXPD remains untriggered for now. The stock tried to rally higher but stalled at $100.37 and then spent the rest of the session churning sideways in a very narrow range for EXPD. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $97.85. If triggered our target is the $90.50-90.00 range, where shares found support a few days ago. We want to reiterate that this is an aggressive play. EXPD could be building a big bull-flag pattern. If that's the case then traders will want to buy calls on a breakout over the $102.00-102.50 region.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Group 1 Auto - GPI - close: 57.70 chg: +0.20 stop: 60.15

We do not see any changes from our weekend update on GPI. We would suggest new puts with GPI under $58.50. Our target is the $51.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $50 target. Our stop is at $60.15 but more aggressive traders may want to leave their stop above $60.50, which was resistance several days ago.

Picked on June 11 at $ 58.46
Change since picked: - 0.76
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 498 thousand

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 77.67 chg: -0.28 stop: 80.05

IBM didn't do much today. Shares traded inside a $1.00 range. The action was bearish but IBM out performed the major averages and its peers in the hardware sector. We don't see any changes from our weekend update. We are suggesting new put plays with IBM under $79.00. Our target is the $73.50-73.00 range. Please note that we will be running into a time crunch soon. We don't want to hold over the mid-July earnings report.

Picked on June 06 at $ 78.75
Change since picked: - 1.08
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 76.63 chg: -0.86 stop: 80.05

IDXX continues to consolidate lower. The stock lost 1.1% while its MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. We don't see any changes from our weekend update. IDXX does appear to have minor support at $76 and $75 and probably again at the 200-dma but the overall trend is bearish with the breakdown of its longer-term bullish channel. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $64.00 target. We have two targets. A conservative target at $75.25 and a more aggressive target at $72.00.

Picked on June 12 at $ 77.95
Change since picked: - 1.32
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 144 thousand

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Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - cls: 99.80 chg: -4.96 stop: 108.25

Our put play on ISRG is now open. The stock continued to sell-off and shares lost 4.7% on above average volume today. The decline proved to be a breakdown below support at $102.50, the 200-dma and the $100.00 mark. Our trigger to buy puts was at $102.45. Now that the play is open our target is the $91.00-90.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $74 target. Please note that the P&F chart does appear to have some support near $98.00. We may see an oversold bounce soon. Any of the broken support levels over the last week can act as overhead resistance.

Picked on June 19 at $102.45
Change since picked: - 2.65
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Oshkosh Truck - OSK - close: 48.94 chg: -0.69 stop: 52.05

Monday's decline would suggest that the oversold bounce in OSK is now over. The stock lost 1.39%. Our only concern is that volume came in pretty low, which doesn't suggest a lot of conviction behind the move. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart looks pretty bearish with a $34.00 target.

Picked on June 13 at $ 49.49
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand

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Supertex - SUPX - close: 35.98 change: -1.02 stop: 39.25

Our play in SUPX is now open. The semiconductor sector could not hold on to any strength today in spite of the largest chip stock, Intel, being upgraded this morning. Shares of SUPX were actually weak right from the start this morning and broke down under technical support at its 100-dma and 200-dma. Our trigger to buy puts was at $35.99. Now that the play is open our target is the $31.00-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on June 19 at $ 35.99
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 263 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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