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Call Updates

Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 139.51 chg: +4.10 stop: 132.49*new*

Thursday was a very strong day for the broker-dealers. The XBD index closed up with a 4% gain. Shares of BSC added 3%. The stock hit our trigger to buy calls at $137.51 before the release of the FOMC decision on interest rates. Now that the play is open our target is the $144.50-147.50 range. If you don't feel like chasing BSC here then look for a pull back toward $138.00-137.50. We are raising the stop loss to $132.49.

Picked on June 29 at $137.51
Change since picked: + 2.00
Earnings Date 09/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Chipolte Mex Grill - CMG - cls: 60.85 chg: +0.90 stop: 57.45

CMG experienced a little bit of volatility this morning but traders bought the dip at $59.25 above its rising 50-dma. This looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Picked on June 18 at $ 61.76
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 384 thousand

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Google - GOOG - close: 417.81 chg: +11.70 stop: 389.99 *new*

GOOG turned in a strong session adding 2.88%. Driving the price were positive analyst comments and the announcement that GOOG's checkout (online payment) service was now open for business. We are raising our stop loss to $389.99. More conservative traders may want to place their stop near $395 or $400. Our target remains the $440-445 range.

Picked on June 21 at $401.00
Change since picked: +16.81
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

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Marathon Oil - MRO - close: 83.55 chg: +1.75 stop: 77.55*new*

It was another very strong day for oil stocks. Crude oil topped $73 a barrel. The OIX index added 1.9% and the OSX oil services index added 4.25%. Shares of MRO tacked on another 2.1% on rising volume. We are raising our stop to $77.55. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider taking some profits right here with MRO up $6.00 from our picked price. Our target is the $84.00-85.00 range. The Point & Figure chart's bullish price target has jumped from $85 to $106.

Picked on June 27 at $ 77.55
Change since picked: + 6.00
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.2 million

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Reynolds American - RAI - cls: 115.18 chg: +1.31 stop: 109.69*new*

Target achieved. RAI has not only hit our conservative target at $115.00 but shares closed over this level on above average volume. More conservative traders may want to lock in some profits here. Our second, more aggressive target is the $119 level. We are adjusting the stop loss to $109.69.

Picked on June 15 at $111.15
Change since picked: + 4.03
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 632 thousand

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United Tech. - UTX - close: 63.29 chg: +1.96 stop: 59.95

UTX turned in a very strong day adding more than 3% and breaking out above its 50-dma to close at a new three-week high. Currently our target is the $64.00-65.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on June 08 at $ 60.13
Change since picked: + 3.16
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 58.97 chg: +2.95 stop: 60.05

Our put play in AAPL is in trouble. The very strong, widespread market rally sparked a 5.2% rebound in shares of AAPL. Investors did not seem to care that AAPL has become the latest company to be investigated for the backdating of stock option grants to executives. If there is any market follow through higher tomorrow then AAPL could easily hit our stop loss. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. The best case scenario here would be to see a failed rally under $60.00.

Picked on June 28 at $ 56.85
Change since picked: + 2.12
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 33.1 million

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 65.10 chg: +1.16 stop: 67.25

It looks like we should have taken our own suggestion to exit early ahead of the Fed decision. Shares of AMGN bounced for a 1.8% gain and closed back above support/resistance at the $65.00 level and its 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately before any more unrealized gains vanish.

Picked on June 05 at $ 67.48
Change since picked: - 2.38
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million

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Digital River - DRIV - cls: 40.10 change: -0.43 stop: 42.05

We cannot find any news to account for DRIV's relative weakness this morning. Shares dropped to $37.70 before bouncing back and eventually closing back above the $40.00 level. Volume came in very strong by the closing bell. We are not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (maybe $41.00).

Picked on June 19 at $ 39.45
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Group 1 Auto - GPI - close: 56.29 chg: +0.95 stop: 58.46

The rebound in GPI is slowly eating away at our early gains. Today's breakout over the $56.00 level looks like bad news for the bears. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on June 11 at $ 58.46
Change since picked: - 2.17
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 498 thousand

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 77.59 chg: +1.03 stop: 79.05

The strength of the market rebound is a concern for any bearish position even IBM, which remains inside its bearish trend. More conservative traders might want to exit early if the stock trades over or closes over the $78.00 level.

Picked on June 06 at $ 78.75
Change since picked: - 1.16
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 75.22 chg: +0.97 stop: 78.05

The BTK biotech index produced a very big 3.7% gain and looks poised to breakout over its 50-dma. That's a big warning sign for bears in IDXX. While we are encouraged that IDXX under performed its peers and the broader market today and the fact that IDXX is still under its 10-dma, we're not feeling very confident right here. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops toward $76.00.

Picked on June 12 at $ 77.95
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 144 thousand

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Oshkosh Truck - OSK - close: 47.69 chg: +0.67 stop: 50.51

Shares of OSK did not see much volatility today. The stock turned in a slow, oversold bounce higher. We remain bearish but we're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $34 target.

Picked on June 13 at $ 49.49
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Express Scripts - ESRX - cls: 70.94 chg: +2.20 stop: 70.10

We have been stopped out at $70.10. ESRX was strong from the start this morning with a spike toward the $70.00 level but it wasn't until after the FOMC decision that the stock broke out over $70.00. Our conservative target at $65.25 was hit days ago.

Picked on June 08 at $ 69.59
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Sears Holding - SHLD - cls: 157.94 chg: +4.79 stop: 154.36

Today's breakout over $155.00 in SHLD has probably put the kibosh on any bearish plays. This rebound from the $150 level and its 50-dma and bullish breakout looks more like a bullish entry point to buy calls. Aggressive traders might want to buy calls here with a target in the $165-167.50 region. Our strategy was an attempt to catch a breakdown with a trigger at $148.99 so the play was never opened.

Picked on June xx at $xxx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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