Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 69.24 chg: -0.77 stop: 64.95
A little bit of profit taking after Thursday's big move is to be expected. Watch for a dip to (or bounce from) $68.00 or its 50-dma near $67.90 as a potential entry point. We don't see any other changes from our new play description on Thursday night so we're reposting it here:
All of the steel-related stocks we looked at on Thursday did very well. We like ATI as a call option candidate due to the bullish breakout. Granted bullish breakouts were a dime a dozen with Thursday's market rally but ATI pushed through significant resistance near $68.00, its 50-dma and the $70.00 level. This was in addition to trading past the gap down from mid May. We are suggesting calls with ATI above $68.00. You, the reader, can choose to open positions here or wait for a potential pull back. Considering the size of the rally today, and in ATI, it would be natural to expect some profit taking tomorrow but the shorts are probably scared and Friday is the last day for end of quarter window dressing so the rally could continue. Our target is the $75.00-76.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to an $83 target. We do not want to hold over the July earnings date.
BUY CALL AUG 65.00 ATI-HM open interest= 356 current ask $ 8.60
Picked on June 29 at $ 70.01
Burlington N.Santa Fe - BNI - cls: 79.25 chg: +0.16 stop: 74.90
We would still consider new call positions here or traders can wait for a breakout above $80.00 or look for a dip toward short-term support near $78.00. At this time we don't see any changes from our new play description from Thursday so we're reposting it here:
The transport stocks were a big part of Thursday's rally. The Dow Jones Transportation average added 3.3% to break through resistance at the 4800 level. Shares of BNI did their part with a breakout from its two-week trading range and its 50-dma. We are suggesting calls here with BNI above $79.00. More conservative traders might want to wait for a move past the $80.00 mark since that level might be psychological resistance. Our target is going to be the $84.90-85.00 range although more aggressive traders might want to aim for the April highs near $87.50. The P&F chart currently points to a $93 target. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report.
AUG 75.00 BNI-HO open interest= 142 current ask $6.70
Picked on June 29 at $ 79.09
Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 140.08 chg: +0.57 stop: 132.49
BSC is currently looking pretty strong with a three-day rally from $132.50 to $140.00. The bullish breakout over resistance at its 50-dma and the $137.00-137.50 region was our buy signal. Speaking of buy signals Friday's trade over the $140.00 mark has produced a brand new triple-top breakout buy signal on its Point & Figure chart with a $178 target. We suspect that BSC looks ready for some profit taking. We'd look for a dip back toward $138.00-137.00 as a new entry point. Our target is the $144.50-147.50 range.
Picked on June 29 at $137.51
Chipolte Mex Grill - CMG - cls: 60.95 chg: +0.10 stop: 57.45
The technical picture for CMG has definitely taken a turn for the worse in the last several days. CMG's sideways consolidation is drifting lower. This isn't a surprise. We've been warning readers to expect a dip toward the 50-dma and/or the bottom of its rising channel. Right now with CMG near the support at the bottom of its rising channel this looks like a bullish entry point but we'd probably wait for some signs of strength before initiating new positions. At this time, since we're a little concerned over CMG's momentum, we'd wait for a move over Friday's high (62.50) before buying calls again. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop toward the 50-dma. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $78 target. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.
Picked on June 18 at $ 61.76
Google - GOOG - close: 419.33 chg: + 1.52 stop: 394.99 *new*
GOOG continues to show relative strength. After Thursday's big move the stock suffered some profit taking on Friday morning with a dip toward $412. Fortunately, traders bought the dip and the stock was inching higher most of the session. We remain bullish but it would not surprise us to see some additional profit taking next week since the $420 level looks like the next region of resistance. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $394.99. More conservative types may want to put theirs closer to $400. Our target is the $440-445 range. We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report. FYI: Readers should note that GOOG may encounter significant resistance in the $425-430 region due to the trendline of lower highs (see chart). You might want to think about locking in some gains as GOOG nears this area.
Picked on June 21 at $401.00
Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 150.43 chg: -1.77 stop: 146.45
On Friday GS tried and failed to breakout past the 50-dma and the $153 level. A little profit taking is not surprising after Thursday's big gain. We do not see any changes from our new play description from Thursday so we're reposting it here:
We seriously considered adding GS to the play list as a call candidate right here (at $152). Thursday's 3.8% gain is a bullish breakout through the top of its six-day trading range and resistance near $150 and its 100-dma. However, the stock still has technical resistance directly overhead at its 50-dma. Therefore we're going to suggest a trigger to buy calls at $153.05. Aggressive traders may want to jump in early. We're suggesting two targets. Our conservative target is the $157.50 level. Our aggressive target is going to be the $164.00 level. If shares of GS can trade over $154 it will produce a new buy signal on the P&F chart.
BUY CALL AUG 150.00
GPY-HJ open interest=1679 current ask $5.90
Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Reynolds American - RAI - cls: 115.30 chg: +0.12 stop: 109.69
Shares of RAI continue to show relative strength. The stock dipped to $114 on Friday before traders stepped in to buy the dip. Volume continues to rise. The bounce from $114 looks like a new entry point but only for aggressive traders. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. A bounce from the 10-dma would look like a better entry. RAI has already hit our conservative target at $115.00. Right now we're aiming for our aggressive target at the $119.00 level.
Picked on June 15 at $111.15
Union Pacific - UNP - close: 92.96 chg: +1.42 stop: 87.45
Our new call play UNP is off to a good start. Shares added 1.55% on Friday and broke out over its 50-dma. The P&F chart's bullish target has risen from $104 to $110. We do not see any changes from our new play description on Thursday night so we're reposting it here:
UNP is another railroad stock that enjoyed a strong session Thursday. Shares added 2.3% and broke out from a two-week trading range. Volume was strong as UNP cleared resistance at the 100-dma. We are suggesting calls here with UNP above the $90.00 level. More conservative traders may want to wait for UNP to clear the 50-dma directly overhead. Our target is the $96.00-97.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a bounce from support and a $104 target. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report.
BUY CALL AUG 90.00 UNP-HR open interest=
703 current ask $5.50
Picked on June 29 at $ 91.54
United Tech. - UTX - close: 63.42 chg: +0.13 stop: 59.95
The good news here is that UTX was able to hold on to its gains from Thursday. On Friday traders bought the dip near the stock's rising 50-dma. UTX is relatively close to our target in the $64.00-65.00 range so we're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More aggressive traders might want to aim for the May highs above $66.00.
Picked on June 08 at $ 60.13
Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 73.30 chg: -0.34 stop: 69.75
The trading action in WYNN on Friday looks like a short-term bearish reversal. We would look for a dip to the 50-dma (near 72.40) as a new entry point. If shares trade under $72.00 we'd wait for a bounce back before initiating new plays. Our target is the $79.50-80.00 range. The P&F chart has a spread triple-top breakout buy signal with an $86 target. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.
BUY CALL AUG 70.00 UWY-HN open interest=260 current ask $6.30
Picked on June 29 at $ 73.64
Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 57.27 chg: -1.70 stop: 60.05
AAPL definitely under performed on Friday. Shares lost 2.88%. The news headlines would have you believe the drop was on the back-dating options story but that news came out the day before. One analyst firm came forth and said the pull back should be used as a buying opportunity. We are a little hesitant to suggest new positions here. The stock spiked lower and hit our trigger to buy puts the day before the Fed announcement and market rally. At this time we're going to suggest that readers wait for a decline under $56.50 or even $56.00 before considering new put plays. Our target is the $50.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $44 target. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report.
Picked on June
28 at $ 56.85
Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 65.23 chg: +0.13 stop: 67.25
The BTK biotech index has been showing a lot of strength in the last couple of days. Fortunately for us the rally in AMGN on Friday failed. We're going to leave our stop loss where it is at $67.25 above the 50-dma. However, more conservative traders might want to put their stop above Friday's high or just exit now to lock in a small gain. We're not suggesting new plays. Our target is the $62.65-62.25 range.
Picked on June 05 at $ 67.48
Digital River - DRIV - cls: 40.39 change: +0.29 stop: 42.05
We still don't see any news to account for DRIV's weakness on Thursday morning. We remain cautious with shares above $40.00 and we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our stop remains just above short-term resistance at the $42.00 level. Currently our target is the $35.25-35.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $26 target.
Picked on June 19 at $ 39.45
Group 1 Auto - GPI - close: 56.34 chg: +0.05 stop: 58.01 *new*
We are still in a wait and see mode with GPI. We're waiting to see if and when the oversold bounce will fail. So far the bounce has brought the MACD indicator all the way to the brink of a new buy signal. We are not suggesting new bearish plays at this time. Instead we're going to lower our stop loss to $58.01. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stops toward Thursday's high near $56.75. Our target is the $51.00 level. The P&F chart points to a $50 target.
Picked on June 11 at $ 58.46
Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 76.82 chg: -0.77 stop: 78.75*new*
The action in IBM on Friday was interesting. The stock produced a (bearish) failed rally under the $78.00 level. Furthermore volume was above average on the reversal and the stock appears to have produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are not suggesting new put positions in IBM at this time but if you were looking for an entry point this could be it - just consider using a tighter stop near $78.00. We're adjusting our stop loss to $78.75. Our target is the $73.50 level. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.
Picked on June 06 at $ 78.75
IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 75.13 chg: -0.09 stop: 78.05
Strength in the BTK biotech index is probably fueling the bounce in IDXX. The pattern remains bearish but IDXX is on the verge of pushing past short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma. Volume came in above average on Friday's session. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. The MACD indicator on the daily chart is starting to look bullish so more conservative traders might want to do some profit taking here. Our conservative target at $75.25 has already been hit and we're now aiming for the $72.00 level.
Picked on June 12 at $ 77.95
Oshkosh Truck - OSK - close: 47.52 chg: -0.17 stop: 50.51
OSK continues to look relatively weak. The stock failed to really participate during the big market rally on Thursday. Shares seem to be trending in a lower high, lower low pattern. If OSK does try and bounce we would expect to see some resistance at $49.00 and again at $50.00. Any failed rally under $50 and its 200-dma could be used as a new entry point but we're not suggesting new plays at the moment. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $34 target.
Picked on June 13 at $ 49.49
Marathon Oil - MRO - close: 83.30 chg: -0.25 stop: 77.55
Close enough? MRO hit $83.99 on Friday. Our target was the $84.00-85.00 range. We're going to suggest that readers exit early for a potential profit right here. MRO looks short-term overbought and any consolidation could bring it right back to the $80 level again. We'll definitely keep an eye on the stock for another entry point to buy calls. More aggressive traders willing to suffer the ups and downs may want to keep the play open and aim for the April highs.
Picked on June 27 at $ 77.55