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Call Updates

Armor Holdings - AH - close: 54.97 chg: 0.54 stop: 52.99*new*

Hmmm... shares of AH displayed some relative strength this morning. The stock shot higher at the open to $56.04. The move was so sharp it almost looked like a reaction to an analyst upgrade but we couldn't find any new analyst comments or news to account for this morning's strength in AH. The stock spent the rest of the day slowly conceding its early morning gains. The close back under resistance at the $55.00 level is not a positive sign. Investors appear to be waiting for tomorrow's jobs report. We are still concerned about potential resistance at the 50-dma overhead. Consider waiting for a move over $55.50 before evaluating new plays. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report. Please note we're raising the stop loss to $52.99 and more conservative traders may want to move theirs closer to the $54 level in case the jobs report is negative and markets head south.

Picked on July 02 at $ 54.83
Change since picked: 0.14
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 656 thousand

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 68.68 chg: 0.07 stop: 64.95

Most of the steel/iron or metal stocks we looked at today all had the same pattern - sideways. Investors are waiting for tomorrow's economic report. We remain bullish with ATI above the simple 50-dma (67.63) and its 10-dma (67.29) but more conservative traders might want to wait for a move over $70.50 before considering new plays. Our target is the $75.00-76.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to an $83 target. We do not want to hold over the July earnings date.

Picked on June 29 at $ 70.01
Change since picked: - 1.33
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million

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Burlington N.Santa Fe - BNI - cls: 76.36 chg: -2.32 stop: 74.90

Railroad stocks were showing relative weakness on Thursday. The odd thing is that we can't find any news or reason to account for the move. With crude oil near record highs railroad stocks should be bullish since they're more efficient fuel-wise. The technical picture for BNI is turning bearish. Plus, today's decline under the 10-dma and 50-dma was fueled by above average volume. We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on June 29 at $ 79.09
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 142.38 chg: 1.46 stop: 134.95

BSC turned in some relative strength on Thursday. The stock added over 1% versus a 0.17% gain for the XBD broker-dealer index. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to think about taking some profits off the table early. Our target is the $144.50-147.50 range.

Picked on June 29 at $137.51
Change since picked: 4.87
Earnings Date 09/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Chipolte Mex Grill - CMG - cls: 59.06 chg: -0.29 stop: 57.99

We don't see any changes from yesterday's update. Bulls are still in danger here with CMG. Even an analyst price target upgrade this morning was not enough to inspire any sort of bounce in CMG. More conservative traders might want to cut their losses early right here. The stock looks vulnerable to more selling with the close under $60.00 and its 50-dma. Shares are on the verge of breaking down under its wide, rising channel.

Picked on June 18 at $ 61.76
Change since picked: - 2.70
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 384 thousand

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Google - GOOG - close: 423.19 chg: 1.73 stop: 399.00 *new*

This morning some positive analyst comments for GOOG inspired a minor rally but the strength faded and shares spent the session sideways as investors wait for tomorrow's jobs report. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. We are going to raise our stop loss to $399.00. More conservative traders may want to seriously consider taking some profits right here! There is potential resistance in the $425-430 region with its trendline of lower highs. We are aiming for the $440 level.

Picked on June 21 at $401.00
Change since picked: 22.19
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

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Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 150.58 chg: -0.37 stop: 146.45

There is no change from our previous update. We are still sitting on the sidelines with GS. The stock has still not broken out past the $153.00 level. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $153.05. Aggressive traders may want to jump in early with a bounce from the $150 level. We're suggesting two targets. Our conservative target is the $157.50 level. Our aggressive target is going to be the $164.00 level. If shares of GS can trade over $154 it will produce a new buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on June xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: 0.00
Earnings Date 09/12/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million

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MicroStrategy - MSTR - cls: 93.64 change: -2.89 stop: 91.74

Software stocks continued to sink today and traders decided to do some profit taking in MSTR ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. The technical picture for MSTR is decaying. We are not suggesting new plays with MSTR under $95.00. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward today's low (92.76).

Picked on July 02 at $ 97.52
Change since picked: - 3.95
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 333 thousand

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 90.83 chg: -1.29 stop: 87.45

UNP is suffering from the same weakness that hit BNI today. Although shares of UNP look a little better with a bounce from the $90.00 level this afternoon. Traders can use a bounce from $90 as a new entry point tomorrow or wait for a most past $92.00 before considering new calls. Conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward today's low (89.84). Our target is the $96.00-97.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a bounce from support and a $110 target. We do not want to hold over the July earnings report.

Picked on June 29 at $ 91.54
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 72.11 chg: -0.23 stop: 69.75

Some of the technical indicators are starting to fade toward bearish signals. The lack of follow through on yesterday's bounce doesn't help matters. In reality it looks like traders are just waiting for tomorrow's jobs report. Look for another most past $73.00 or today's high (73.08) before considering new longs. Our target is the $79.50-80.00 range. The P&F chart has a spread triple-top breakout buy signal with an $86 target. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Picked on June 29 at $ 73.64
Change since picked: - 1.53
Earnings Date 08/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 55.72 chg: -1.28 stop: 60.05

AAPL is showing relative weakness today with a 2.2% loss and a close near last week's lows. Some of the news today suggested that today's loss was fueled by news that Microsoft (MSFT) was going to release a competitor for the iPod but this is not new news. We remain bearish on the stock but tomorrow's jobs report could send shares either direction. Our target is the $50.50-50.00 range.

Picked on June 28 at $ 56.85
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 33.1 million

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Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 65.94 chg: 0.45 stop: 67.05 *new*

AMGN is still creeping toward resistance at its 50-dma (66.95). We are going to lower our stop loss to $67.05. We're not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Our target is the $62.65-62.25 range.

Picked on June 05 at $ 67.48
Change since picked: - 1.54
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.9 million

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Digital River - DRIV - cls: 41.26 change: 0.30 stop: 42.05

There is no change from yesterday's update. Volume continues to come in very light for DRIV. The stock has been bouncing around the $40-42 range for a while. If the market responds positively to the jobs report we would expect DRIV to react with a breakout over $42.00. We are not suggesting new plays and more conservative traders might just want to cut their losses early right here! Currently our target is the $35.25-35.00 range. The P&F chart is bearish and points to a $26 target.

Picked on June 19 at $ 39.45
Change since picked: 1.80
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - cls: 78.09 chg: 0.32 stop: 78.75

IBM is still consolidating sideways as investors wait for the jobs report. If the report is positive and the market responds then we expect to be stopped out at $78.75. Our target is the $73.50 level. We do not want to hold over the mid July earnings report.

Picked on June 06 at $ 78.75
Change since picked: - 0.66
Earnings Date 07/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 74.97 chg: -0.34 stop: 78.05

Same story, different stock. IDXX is consolidating sideways as traders wait for tomorrow's economic report. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our conservative target at $75.25 has already been hit and we're now aiming for the $72.00 level.

Picked on June 12 at $ 77.95
Change since picked: - 2.98
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 144 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

Reynolds American - RAI - cls: 118.95 chg: 4.59 stop: 109.69

Target achieved. Shares of RAI and Dow-component Altria (MO) reacted strongly to news that the Florida Supreme court overturned a $145 billion verdict against the tobacco industry. Shares of RAI spiked to a new all-time high of $120.99 this morning before paring its gains. Our conservative target at $115.00 was hit a few days ago and today's rally hit our aggressive target at the $119.00 mark.

Picked on June 15 at $111.15
Change since picked: 7.80
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 632 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

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