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Call Updates

Cytec - CYT - close: 53.60 change: +0.84 stop: 52.45

CYT rebounded on Wednesday with a 1.59% gain but volume remained anemic. We're still waiting for a breakout over $55.00. We're suggesting that readers use a trigger to buy calls at $55.11. If triggered our target is the $59.00-60.00 range. We do expect to see some resistance near $57.50 so expect a pull back but broken resistance at $55 should become new support.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 313 thousand

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Femsa Fomento - FMX - close: 89.51 chg: +1.48 stop: 85.85

FMX is looking stronger today. The stock added 1.6% and broke out over minor resistance at the $88.50 level. Now shares look poised to breakout past more significant resistance at the $90.00 mark. If shares can trade over $90.00 it would produce a new quadruple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $90.05. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger at $90.25 or $90.50 just to see little more confirmation. If triggered our target will be the $97.00-100.00 range. Our time frame is four to six weeks.

Picked on July xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 524 thousand

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Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 149.90 chg: -1.36 stop: 144.95

GS experienced some selling this morning after a Merrill Lynch analyst lower their earnings estimates on Goldman. Fortunately, traders bought the dip near $147.50 and its simple 50-dma. The afternoon bounce looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls but more conservative traders may want to wait for a new move over today's high (150.50) before initiating positions. Our conservative target is the $154.00 level. Our aggressive target is at $157.50. We'd suggest that readers exit a majority of their position at $154 and only keep a small play open for the $157.50 level.

Picked on July 25 at $148.05
Change since picked: + 1.85
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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Petroleo.Brasiliero - PBR - cls: 94.02 chg: +2.14 stop: 87.49

Crude oil futures continue to march higher and shares of PBR responded with a 2.3% gain. Volume improved on PBR's rally today but it remains below average. Today's move is also encouraging as the stock hits a new two-month high. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-August earnings report.

Picked on July 30 at $ 92.72
Change since picked: + 1.30
Earnings Date 08/11/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Put Updates

Chicago Merc. - CME - close: 455.10 change: - 6.26 stop: n/a

The afternoon bounce from Tuesday in CME has stalled. Shares lost 1.3% and under performed the broader market. We are not suggesting new put plays at this time. We're not closing the play early since it was a high-risk, speculative gamble and we're going to wait out the next three weeks until option expiration. Our target is the $420-400 range but we suspect the rising 200-dma (near $422) may be support.

Picked on July 23 at $452.00
Change since picked: + 3.10
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 680 thousand

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US Airways - LCC - close: 43.88 chg: +0.34 stop: 47.51

Airline stocks, including LCC, managed a bounce today in spite of another rise in crude oil. We see today's bounce in shares of LCC as just a better entry point to buy puts on the stock. Broken support at $45.00 and its 100-dma should act as overhead resistance. We see no changes from our play description from Tuesday night. Currently the P&F chart points to a $35 target. We suspect that the $40 level might offer some support for LCC so we're setting our short-term conservative target at $40.25. We're also setting a more aggressive target at $36.00.

Picked on August 01 at $ 43.54
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Manpower Inc. - MAN - close: 57.87 chg: +1.06 stop: 61.05

Shares of MAN produced an oversold bounce today and posted a 1.8% gain on above average volume. We would look for the rebound to stall near its descending 10-dma (near $59.00) or the $60 level. We're not suggesting new positions. The 200-dma near $55.00 looks like technical support. Our target is the $55.75-55.50 range.

Picked on July 20 at $ 59.42
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Union Pacific - UNP - close: 84.76 chg: +1.62 stop: 86.26

Once again it seems like investors can't decide what direction they want to go. The Dow Jones transportation index was higher today in spite of a rise in crude oil. Fueling the move in transports was a 1.8% gain in the Dow Jones railroad index. Shares of UNP added 1.9% but on low volume. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The MACD indicator on the daily chart for UNP is suggesting a new buy signal soon. The rest of the technicals seem bearish to flat. If the DJIA index can breakout over resistance near 11250 then we suspect that UNP will stop us out at $86.26.

Picked on July 21 at $ 83.75
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Bausch Lomb - BOL - close: 48.00 change: +0.00 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous updates. BOL continues to bounce around in its sideways consolidation although we do note that the consolidation appears to be narrowing. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our estimated cost on the strangle was $2.15. Our goal will be to sell if either option rises to $3.25 or more. The options in our suggested strangle are the August $50 call (BOL-HJ) and the August $45 put (BOL-TI).

Picked on July 23 at $ 47.40
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 00/00/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 72.20 chg: +0.04 stop: n/a

The oversold bounce in LLL this morning failed near the $73 level. The stock continues to look weak. We're not suggesting new strangle plays at this time. Our estimated cost for the strangle was $1.35. We will plan to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more. The options in our LLL strangle are the August $80 call (LLL-HP) and the August $70 put (LLL-TN).

Picked on July 23 at $ 75.26
Change since picked: - 3.06
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 69.61 change: -0.30 stop: n/a

There is still no change from our previous updates on MMM. The stock continues to hover around support at the $70.00 level. At this point we do not know what it's going to take to push MMM one direction or the other. Maybe it's the upcoming jobs report or the FOMC meeting. There are only three weeks left before August options expire. Due to our time crunch we're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our estimated cost was $0.75. We are planning to exit if either options rises to $1.50 or more. The options in our strangle are the August 65 put (MMM-TM) and the August 75 call (MMM-HO).

Picked on July 23 at $ 70.72
Change since picked: - 1.11
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

Dominion - D - close: 78.15 change: -0.47 stop: 75.75

We have run out of time with D. The company is due to report earnings tomorrow morning. It was our plan to exit on Wednesday at the close to avoid holding over the announcement. Wall Street is looking for profits of 83 cents a share.

Picked on July 17 at $ 76.05
Change since picked: + 2.10
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Ipsco - IPS - close: 95.55 change: +1.15 stop: 88.45

Target achieved. IPS managed to rally to $97.56 this afternoon before paring its gains. As we expected the simple 100-dma acted as overhead resistance. Our target was the $97.50-100.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but the next move in IPS looks like a dip towards $94, maybe lower.

Picked on July 30 at $ 92.97
Change since picked: + 2.58
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 674 thousand

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The Houston Exp. - THX - cls: 65.14 chg: +0.45 stop: 59.99

The rise in oil futures also helped THX post another gain today. The company is due to report earnings tomorrow. It was our plan to exit on Wednesday at the close to avoid holding over the announcement. Wall Street is looking for 94 cents a share.

Picked on July 25 at $ 62.60
Change since picked: + 2.54
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 667 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

Apollo Group - APOL - close: 45.18 chg: -0.77 stop: 50.05

Target achieved. As expected the weakness in APOL continued on Wednesday. The stock hit an intraday low of $44.87. Our target was the $45.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart still points to a $34 target.

Picked on July 09 at $ 49.92
Change since picked: - 4.74
Earnings Date 09/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Martin Marietta - MLM - cls: 82.83 chg: +5.22 stop: 82.05

We have been stopped out of MLM at $82.05. The stock completely reversed course on us and soared to a 6.7% gain. We don't see any news, upgrades or events that might explain today's strength. If you remember yesterday morning the company reported earnings, missed the estimates and guided lower.

Picked on August 01 at $ 77.61
Change since picked: + 5.22
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 890 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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