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Call Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 39.11 chg: +0.67 stop: 38.75

We don't see any changes from our weekend update on ANDE. Our market bias is still leaning toward the bearish side so readers may want to hesitate before opening new call plays. It's our plan with ANDE to buy calls on a breakout over its 50-dma or the $40 level. Right now the 50-dma has slipped to $41.60 so we're adjusting our trigger to buy calls to $41.65. If triggered our target is the $46.00-47.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Avalonbay Comm. - AVB - close: 115.37 chg: -3.09 stop: 114.90

Investors did some shuffling ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow and it looks like a number of investors wanted to lock in profits in the REITs. A lot of REIT stocks have been showing relative strength and trading at new highs but today they were a source of weakness. Shares of AVB lost 2.6%, plunging past broken resistance near $117.50 and back towards the bottom of its recent trading range near $115.00. The short-term RSI and MACD indicators are looking bearish. We're not suggesting new plays with AVB under $117.50 and if the markets are weak tomorrow we expect to be stopped out at $114.90.

Picked on August 04 at $117.70 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 2.33
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 319 thousand

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Cytec - CYT - close: 53.26 change: -0.47 stop: 52.45

There is still no change from our previous updates on CYT. The stock is trading sideways between its short-term pattern of higher lows and resistance at $55.00. The MACD indicator on the daily chart looks like it wants to head lower. This weekend we posted an editor's note that said our market bias is turning more bearish and readers may not want to open new bullish positions even if stocks like CYT break out and hit our trigger to buy calls. Our trigger is at $55.11. If triggered our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 313 thousand

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Femsa Fomento - FMX - close: 89.31 chg: -1.29 stop: 85.85

This could be bad news. The profit taking in FMX on Monday left the stock trading under what should have been support at the $90.00 level. Broken resistance at $90.00 should have been support but FMX gapped open lower and traded sideways in a narrow range all day. We do note that the low today was a test of its rising 10-dma. We're not suggesting new positions with FMX under $90.00. Wait for a move over $90.25 again before considering calls. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop losses.

Picked on August 04 at $ 90.50 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 1.19
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 524 thousand

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Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 152.65 chg: -0.34 stop: 146.95

GS didn't make any big moves today. There was an initial spike toward the $155 level but it faded. Investors are just waiting for the FOMC meeting and the committee's comments on the state of inflation and monetary policy. If you missed our last updated GS has already achieved our target at $154.00 (twice now) and we're aiming for our aggressive target at $157.50.

Picked on July 25 at $148.05
Change since picked: + 4.60
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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Petroleo.Brasiliero - PBR - cls: 94.40 chg: +0.74 stop: 89.49

We are a little surprised that PBR did not post a bigger gain today. BP's news that they're closing their oil field in Alaska pushed crude futures to a new high near $77 a barrel. Overall the energy sector traded higher. We don't see any big changes from our weekend update on PBR. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-August earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $116 target.

Picked on July 30 at $ 92.72
Change since picked: + 1.68
Earnings Date 08/11/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Put Updates

US Airways - LCC - close: 43.07 chg: -1.88 stop: 47.51

Fuel is one of the biggest expenses for airlines and today's 3% jump in crude oil to a new high near $77 a barrel is not good news for the industry. Shares of LCC lost 4.1% and closed near its lows for the session. We suspect that the $40 level might offer some support for LCC so we're setting our short-term conservative target at $40.25. We're also setting a more aggressive target at $36.00. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $35 target.

Picked on August 01 at $ 43.54
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Manpower Inc. - MAN - close: 57.39 chg: -1.36 stop: 60.76

MAN lost 2.3% with a follow-through move on Friday's failed rally at the $60 level. It was a good day for bears but volume was low as most investors are still waiting for tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Our target is the $55.75-55.50 range near the simple 200-dma. The P&F chart currently points to a $48 target.

Picked on July 20 at $ 59.42
Change since picked: - 2.03
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 50.05 chg: -0.78 stop: 52.51

Our put play in NIHD is now open. The initial spike higher toward $51.50 failed and the stock plunged to $48.71 before fighting back to close over round-number support at the $50.00 level but under technical support at its simple 200-dma. Our trigger to buy puts was at $49.90 so the play is open. Aggressive traders might want to look for a rise or failed rally near $51 as a new entry point. Most traders might be better off looking for a new decline under $49.75 as a new entry point if you missed today's jog lower. We do expect some sort of bounce near $47.50 but our target is the $45.50-45.00 range since $45.00 looks like stronger support.

Picked on August 07 at $ 49.90
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 69.05 chg: -1.03 stop: 75.25

Our put play in RIG is now open. The stock continued to sell-off and shares broke down under the $70.00 level on strong volume and traded at our trigger to buy puts at $69.49. We are a little surprised. RIG already looked oversold and due for a bounce and we were expecting a bounce toward $74-75 before it rolled over and broke down under support at $70.00. We're even more surprised that RIG was this weak today with crude oil soaring 3% to a new high near $77 a barrel. The volume on the sell-off has been pretty strong for three days in a row. The P&F chart's target has grown from $59 to $57. The move today is very bearish but be ready for an oversold bounce sooner rather than later. We are suggesting two targets: a conservative target at $65.25 and a more aggressive target at $61.00. The P&F chart points to a $59 target.

Picked on August 07 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Bausch Lomb - BOL - close: 46.34 change: -0.44 stop: n/a

BOL continues to sink following Friday's breakdown under support at $47.00. We're not suggesting new positions. We have two weeks left before August options expire and need to see a bigger move in BOL soon. Our estimated cost on the strangle was $2.15. Our goal will be to sell if either option rises to $3.25 or more. The options in our suggested strangle are the August $50 call (BOL-HJ) and the August $45 put (BOL-TI).

Picked on July 23 at $ 47.40
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 00/00/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 70.82 chg: -0.68 stop: n/a

The sell-off in LLL spiked to $69.60 before traders finally bought the dip. The move today looks like a short-term bullish reversal so don't be surprised by a bounce towards $72 or the 10-dma nearing $73. We're not suggesting new positions. Our estimated cost for the strangle was $1.35. We will plan to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more. The options in our LLL strangle are the August $80 call (LLL-HP) and the August $70 put (LLL-TN).

Picked on July 23 at $ 75.26
Change since picked: - 4.44
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 69.00 change: -0.45 stop: n/a

MMM is still sinking but it's not making much progress because investors are waiting to hear the Fed tomorrow. We're not suggesting new positions. Our estimated cost for our August strangle was $0.75. We are planning to exit if either options rises to $1.50 or more. The options in our strangle are the August 65 put (MMM-TM) and the August 75 call (MMM-HO).

Picked on July 23 at $ 70.72
Change since picked: - 1.72
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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