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Call Updates

Femsa Fomento - FMX - close: 90.01 chg: +0.70 stop: 85.85

FMX displayed some relative strength on Tuesday but shares closed off their best levels of the session. FMX might get some attention as a defensive stock but we also need to be concerned with how the overseas markets will react to the U.S. market's decline on the Fed news today. The close over $90.00 is bullish and can be seen as a new entry point but we'd hesitate about opening new positions at the moment. Our target is the $97.50-100.00 range. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops a bit.

Picked on August 04 at $ 90.50 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 524 thousand

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Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 151.45 chg: -1.20 stop: 146.95

GS hit our conservative target at $154.00 for the third day in a row. The intraday high was $155.40 but the stock lost about $4 on the post-FOMC news sell-off. We're not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may just want to exit completely. It was our suggestion to exit the majority of your position at $154 and only keep a small position with a target at $157.50.

Picked on July 25 at $148.05
Change since picked: + 3.40
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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Petroleo.Brasiliero - PBR - cls: 94.69 chg: +0.29 stop: 89.49

Oil stocks didn't move much today as crude oil consolidated some of yesterday's big gains. Shares of PBR consolidated sideways. We would not suggest new positions at this time but a dip and bounce from the 10-dma or the $91 region might be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $99.50-100.00 range. Please note that the only earnings date we have for PBR is August 11th but it is unconfirmed. To protect ourselves we're going to exit on Thursday afternoon at the close to avoid holding over any earnings announcement.

Picked on July 30 at $ 92.72
Change since picked: + 1.97
Earnings Date 08/11/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
 

Put Updates

US Airways - LCC - close: 41.95 chg: -1.12 stop: 47.51

Airline stocks continued to sink with the XAL index losing 1.48%. Shares of LCC helped lead the way down with a 2.6% loss and a new eight-week low. We suspect that the $40 level might offer some support for LCC so we're setting our short-term conservative target at $40.25. We're also setting a more aggressive target at $36.00. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $35 target.

Picked on August 01 at $ 43.54
Change since picked: - 1.59
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Manpower Inc. - MAN - close: 57.44 chg: +0.05 stop: 60.76

Shares of MAN produced a minor bounce from its exponential 200-dma but the stock began to sell-off again this afternoon. If the U.S. markets see any follow through selling tomorrow we wouldn't be surprised to see MAN hit the simple 200-dma near $55.75. Speaking of the 200-dma, we need to adjust our target again since the 200-dma is rising. Our new target is the $56.00-55.75 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower since the P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on July 20 at $ 59.42
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 07/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 49.15 chg: -0.90 stop: 52.51

Volume was unimpressive but today's decline in NIHD, back under the $50 level, is a new bearish entry point to buy puts. We do expect some sort of bounce near $47.50 but our target is the $45.50-45.00 range since $45.00 looks like stronger support.

Picked on August 07 at $ 49.90
Change since picked: - 0.75
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 67.65 chg: -1.40 stop: 75.25

Shares of RIG lost another 2% and posted its fourth decline in a row. The breakdown under $70.00 is very bearish and we are suggesting put plays with RIG under $70 but shares do look very short-term oversold and readers need to be ready for an oversold bounce, which could occur at any time. The $70-72 region is probably where RIG will first encounter new overhead resistance. We are suggesting two targets: a conservative target at $65.25 and a more aggressive target at $61.00. The P&F chart points to a $59 target.

Picked on August 07 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 1.84
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Bausch Lomb - BOL - close: 46.03 change: -0.31 stop: n/a

BOL gapped open lower and spiked to $43.97 before bouncing back. The move was fueled by news that the company has to delay filing its quarterly report as it tries to figure out how much pulling its MoistureLok product will hurt results. The intraday spike did push the August $45 put to a high of $1.10. We're not suggesting new positions. We have less than two weeks left before August options expire and need to see a bigger move in BOL soon. Our estimated cost on the strangle was $2.15. Our goal will be to sell if either option rises to $3.25 or more. The options in our suggested strangle are the August $50 call (BOL-HJ) and the August $45 put (BOL-TI).

Picked on July 23 at $ 47.40
Change since picked: - 1.37
Earnings Date 00/00/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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L-3 Comm. - LLL - close: 69.66 chg: -1.16 stop: n/a

We were expecting a bounce after yesterday's intraday rebound but shares of LLL lost another 1.6% today on above average volume. The close under the $70.00 level is also bearish but shares are looking short-term oversold and due for a bigger bounce. We noticed that the decline today has pushed the August $70 put to $1.50bid/1.60ask. We're not suggesting new positions. Our estimated cost for the strangle was $1.35. We will plan to sell if either option rises to $2.25 or more. The options in our LLL strangle are the August $80 call (LLL-HP) and the August $70 put (LLL-TN).

Picked on July 23 at $ 75.26
Change since picked: - 5.60
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 68.56 change: -0.44 stop: n/a

Another day, another decline in MMM but the stock isn't moving fast enough. We're concerned that we're running out of time with less than two weeks to go before August expiration. We're not suggesting new positions. Our estimated cost for our August strangle was $0.75. We are planning to exit if either options rises to $1.50 or more. The options in our strangle are the August 65 put (MMM-TM) and the August 75 call (MMM-HO).

Picked on July 23 at $ 70.72
Change since picked: - 2.16
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 37.19 chg: -1.92 stop: 38.75

We are dropping ANDE as a bullish candidate. The stock displayed a lot of relative weakness today with a 4.9% loss. The move looks like a failed rally under $40.00 and a small bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Since ANDE never hit our trigger to buy calls we're dropping it unopened. Traders might want to consider bearish put plays on a breakdown below its 200-dma.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Avalonbay Comm. - AVB - close: 112.59 chg: -2.78 stop: 114.90

We have been stopped out of AVB at $114.90. Friday's breakout over resistance and its trading range near $117.50 now looks like a bull trap. Today's drop through the bottom of its recent trading range is definitely bearish and its MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. We would expect shares to slip towards the $110 level next.

Picked on August 04 at $117.70 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 5.11
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 319 thousand

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Cytec - CYT - close: 52.34 change: -0.92 stop: 52.45

The technical picture in CYT continues to deteriorate and shares now look poised to breakdown under its simple 200-dma. CYT never traded at or above our trigger to buy calls so we're dropping the play unopened. Traders might want to start thinking about buying puts on a drop below $51 or $50.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 313 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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