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Call Updates

None
 

Put Updates

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 63.91 chg: +0.26 stop: 70.01

AAPL managed a minor bounce from the rising 21-dma and 100-dma today but the rally stalled just over the $65.00 level. The move today looks like a failed rally much like the one seen in the major indices. We remain bearish but AAPL might still try and bounce toward its 10-dma or 200-dma overhead. If you're looking for a new entry point to buy puts this could be it. Our short-term target is the $60.50-60.00 range. The top of the July gap near $59.70 could act as support.

Picked on August 08 at $ 64.78
Change since picked: - 0.87
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 28 million

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Autozone Inc. - AZO - close: 86.70 chg: -1.97 stop: 90.05

AZO suffered a bearish day with a 2.2% slide fueled in part by some negative analyst comments on AZO's potential earnings. Shares spiked lower only to quickly rebound and see the bounce fail again under its 50-dma. We remain bearish and its MACD indicator on its daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. This looks like a new entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $82.50-80.00 range.

Picked on August 08 at $ 87.73
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 700 thousand

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Boeing - BA - close: 75.39 change: -0.57 stop: 80.85

BA gapped higher this morning only to see the rebound fail near the $77.00 level. The move today actually produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We remain bearish but traders may still want to wait for a breakdown under round-number support at the $75.00 mark before initiating positions. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 75.75
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 64.12 chg: -0.72 stop: 70.25

For the most part the transportation sector managed a bounce on a pull back in oil prices. Yet shares of BNI did not participate and the stock broke down further under the $65.00 mark and closed under last month's low on above average volume, which is bearish. Our target is the bottom edge of the current channel in the $62.50-60.00 range.

Picked on August 08 at $ 68.06
Change since picked: - 3.94
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Chaparral Steel Co. - CHAP - cls: 67.01 chg: +0.01 stop: 70.01

CHAP produced another failed rally, this time under the $70.00 level. More aggressive traders may want to strongly consider entering new put positions here. We're still waiting for a breakdown under its 50-dma and 100-dma. Our trigger to enter plays will be $65.40. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $65.00 before initiating positions. Our short-term target will be the $60.50-60.00 range. Traders should note that CHAP is due to split 2-for-1 on September 5th. The stock split will not affect the fundamentals of our play. FYI: Another steel-related stock we're keeping an eye on as a potential put candidate is CRS, especially now that CRS has closed under its simple 200-dma.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 510 thousand

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Chipotle Mex Grill - CMG - close: 49.88 chg: +0.59 stop: 54.01

CMG is still trying to produce an oversold bounce and shares did post a 1.1% gain but like most of the market the stock pared its winnings to close near its lows for the session. We remain bearish but patient traders may want to wait and see if the oversold bounce reaches the $52-53 region before considering new put positions. The P&F chart is bearish with a $39.00 target. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 09 at $ 50.28
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand

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Cummins Inc. - CMI - close: 115.50 chg: -0.22 stop: 121.27

CMI has produced another failed rally under the $118 level and its simple 10-dma. The MACD sell signal on the daily chart is looking stronger and we don't see any changes from our weekend update. More conservative traders may want to lock in some profits now or plan on exiting early near the rising 50-dma near $113.35. Our plan is to exit at $112.75.

Picked on August 08 at $119.77
Change since picked: - 4.27
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Fastenal - FAST - close: 35.45 chg: +0.43 stop: 37.51

Same story, different stock. The market bounce powered FAST to an intraday high over $36.00 but as the market's strength faded so did FAST's. This looks like a new bearish entry point but traders may still want to wait for a decline under $35.00 before initiating new positions. Our target is the $30.75-30.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 34.90
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 10/11/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Hartford Fincl - HIG - close: 81.48 chg: +0.87 stop: 82.01

Insurance stocks are still bouncing and HIG managed to touch its descending 10-dma and the $82 region before paring its gains. We're still on the sidelines so it doesn't hurt to wait and watch HIG for a while. A failed rally from here might be an aggressive entry point but we're still waiting for a breakdown. Our trigger is at $79.20. More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under $79.00 before initiating positions. Our short-term target is going to be the $75.25-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $72.50-70.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $73 target.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - cls: 92.02 chg: -2.38 stop: 101.55

Our aggressive, high-risk put play in ISRG is moving our direction. The stock displayed relative weakness today with a 2.5% decline and a close near its lows for the session. The stock is approaching the early August low near $91.25 and potential round-number support near $90.00 so we're expecting a bounce. However, we remain bearish. Our target is the March lows in the $87.75-87.50 range. ISRG's P&F chart points to a $60 target.

Picked on August 10 at $ 94.90
Change since picked: - 2.88
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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US Airways - LCC - close: 38.14 chg: +0.95 stop: 42.85

After last week's sell-off the airline stocks were looking a bit oversold and ready for a bounce. Today's drop in oil prices was the perfect reason the market needed for airlines to rebound today. LCC added 2.55% but failed to breakout over its 200-dma or the $40.00 level. We're not suggesting new plays and traders may want to seriously consider exiting positions now to lock in profits. The stock has already hit our conservative target at $40.25 and now we're targeting the $36.00 level.

Picked on August 01 at $ 43.54
Change since picked: - 5.40
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Lam Research - LRCX - close: 39.64 change: +0.60 stop: 42.01

LRCX produced a 1.5% bounce on Monday but the stock failed to hold its gains over the $40 level and shares reversed under its descending 21-dma. We're suggesting that readers buy puts with LRCX under $40.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under Friday's low near $38.60. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range. FYI: Some traders might prefer to wait for the SOX semiconductor index to breakdown under the 400 level before considering put plays on LRCX. Currently the SOX is at 409.

Picked on August 13 at $ 39.04
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million

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MDC Holdings - MDC - close: 42.24 change: -0.22 stop: 45.15

Our put play in MDC is now open. The stock traded to an intraday low of $42.01 and our suggested trigger to buy puts was at $42.25. MDC did not show as much weakness as the DJUSHB home construction index (-1.37%) but we are encouraged by the DJUSHB's MACD indicator on its daily chart that has produced a new sell signal. Our target for MDC is the $38.00-37.50 range. We do expect a bounce at round-number, psychological support at the $40.00 level so be prepared for it. The P&F chart points to a $32 target.

Picked on August 14 at $ 42.25
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 991 thousand

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NII Holdings - NIHD - close: 48.47 chg: -0.26 stop: 52.51

We do not see any change from our previous updates on NIHD. The stock is creeping lower and still looks weak. We are suggesting puts with the stock under $50.00 but if you're patient we may get another chance to enter positions closer to the $50 level (like today, the intraday high was $49.50). We do expect some sort of bounce near $47.50 but our target is the $45.50-45.00 range since $45.00 looks like stronger support.

Picked on August 07 at $ 49.90
Change since picked: - 1.43
Earnings Date 07/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 65.05 chg: -1.75 stop: 70.25 *new*

Target achieved! The sell-off in crude oil today weighed on the oil and oil services stocks. Shares of RIG hit an intraday low of $64.82 and closed with a 2.6% loss. Our conservative target was at $65.25. We are suggesting that traders sell all or part of their position and lock in profits. RIG is very oversold and due for a bounce. We are not suggesting new positions. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $70.25. Currently our secondary, aggressive target is the $61 level.

Picked on August 07 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 4.44
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 39.39 chg: -0.61 stop: 42.05

Our new put play in RYL is now open. The DJUSHB home construction index lost 1.37% and its MACD indicator produced a new sell signal. Meanwhile shares of RYL lost 1.5% and its MACD is very close to a new sell signal. The intraday low for RYL was $39.24 and our suggested entry point to buy puts was at $39.40. Our target is the $35.25-35.00 range.

Picked on August 14 at $ 39.40
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million

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Whirlpool - WHR - close: 76.50 chg: +0.44 stop: 76.26

There are no changes from our weekend play description on WHR. The intraday rally failed on Monday but we're still on the sidelines. If WHR trades under $74.00 it would produce a new quadruple bottom breakdown sell signal on its P&F chart. We're suggesting that readers use a trigger to buy puts at $73.99. If triggered our short-term target is the $70.10-70.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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United States Steel - X - cls: 57.12 chg: +0.83 stop: 60.05

There are no changes from our weekend play description on X. Shares remain above support near $56.00. The P&F chart is already bearish and points to a $49 target. We want to see shares of X break down under support at the $56.00 level before initiating positions. Our trigger to buy puts is at $55.85. If triggered our target is the $50.25-50.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.7 million
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Bausch Lomb - BOL - close: 45.04 change: +0.03 stop: n/a

We only have four days left for this strangle and BOL's lack of movement today is a not a good sign. We are not suggesting new positions. Our estimated cost on the strangle was $2.15. Our goal will be to sell if either option rises to $3.25 or more. The options in our suggested strangle are the August $50 call (BOL-HJ) and the August $45 put (BOL-TI). FYI: Traders may want to plan an early exit on any spike that brings the put towards breakeven.

Picked on July 23 at $ 47.40
Change since picked: - 2.36
Earnings Date 00/00/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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3M Co. - MMM - close: 68.62 change: +0.09 stop: n/a

Our strangle on MMM is also running out of time with only four days left. We're not suggesting new positions. Our estimated cost for our August strangle was $0.75. We are planning to exit if either options rises to $1.50 or more. The options in our strangle are the August 65 put (MMM-TM) and the August 75 call (MMM-HO). FYI: Traders may want to plan an early exit on any spike that brings the put towards breakeven.

Picked on July 23 at $ 70.72
Change since picked: - 2.10
Earnings Date 07/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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