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Call Updates

The Andersons - ANDE - close: 39.74 chg: +0.26 stop: 37.49

Our new play in ANDE has been opened but we're suggesting that traders stay cautious. The stock spiked resistance at the $40.00 level very briefly around noon today and traded to an intraday high of $40.26, which seems a little suspicious since our suggested trigger to buy calls was at $40.25. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new plays with ANDE under $40.00. Readers can choose to see a new relative high (40.27) or look for a dip and bounce near $38.50 as a potential entry point. Now that the play is open our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 28 at $ 40.26
Change since picked: - 0.52
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 900 thousand

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AstraZeneca - AZN - close: 63.32 change: +0.10 stop: 59.95

Drug stocks were trending higher today. The DRG drug index hit new multi-year highs thanks to strength in shares of PFE and MRK. Unfortunately, AZN is still consolidating sideways. We don't see any changes from our weekend update on the stock. We would still consider new positions here but a dip and bounce near $62 would also be an attractive entry point. Our target is the $68.00-69.00 range but our time frame is mid-October.

Picked on August 20 at $ 62.99
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Cameco - CCJ - close: 39.27 change: +0.08 stop: 37.95

CCJ under performed the broader market on Monday. However, shares bounced multiple times near the $38.80 level so CCJ may have put in a short-term bottom. We don't know yet and would not consider new positions until CCJ traded back above $40.00 or $40.50. The Point & Figure chart is still bullish with a $55 target. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward the $38.80 level. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 40.33
Change since picked: - 1.06
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 39.28 chg: +0.00 stop: 39.95

There was literally no change in shares of CYMI today and we don't see any changes from our weekend update. We currently have two triggers on the stock to catch a breakout either way. If shares move higher we have a trigger to buy calls at $42.55. If shares move lower we have a trigger to buy puts at $37.74.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 56.59 chg: -0.81 stop: 53.95

Metal-related stocks were trading lower today. Chatter on the floor of the NYSE suggested that investors were selling energy and metal stocks to fund their tech purchases. FCX didn't move much. The stock lost 1.4% in a move toward the bottom of its current $56-58 trading range. We see the dip toward $56 and support near its 200-dma as a new entry point but right now traders might feel more comfortable waiting for a breakout over $58.00. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range. Traders should also note that we do expect some short-term resistance near $60.00 and a retest of the 100-dma, once broken as resistance, should act as support. FYI: As the August 31st U.N. deadline for Iran approaches we would expect gold futures to rise and that could benefit shares of FCX.

Picked on August 23 at $ 57.51
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million

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MicroStrategy - MSTR - close: 91.40 chg: +1.35 stop: 87.40

Software stocks turned in a bullish day posting a 1% gain in the GSO software index. Shares of MSTR followed with a 1.49% bounce from the $90 region but the stock is still under its 200-dma. We see today's rebound as a new entry point to buy calls but more conservative traders might want to wait for a move over $92.00 before initiating new positions. This remains a somewhat aggressive play given MSTR's volatility. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss. Currently our target is the $98.75-99.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $ 92.05
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 431 thousand

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 55.19 change: +1.59 stop: 51.65

PJC displayed relative strength on Monday with a 2.9% gain. The stock broke back above potential resistance at its 50-dma and the $54.00 level but the rally ran out of steam near $56, which was resistance and the top of its previous trading range. The move looks like a new entry point but we would expect a dip back toward $54 tomorrow. Conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $56 before buying calls. Our target is the $59.90-60.00 range.

Picked on August 20 at $ 55.70
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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FreightCar Amer. - RAIL - cls: 56.02 chg: +0.11 stop: 54.95*new*

A significant dip in crude oil futures on Monday helped fuel a rally in the transports but the railroad stocks did not respond. The Dow Jones Transportation average added 1.2%, thanks to a big rebound in airlines, but railroads traded flat to down. Shares of RAIL only added 0.2% and failed under its 200-dma and its short-term trendline of lower highs. The daily chart's MACD indicator finally produced a new sell signal. We are suggesting that conservative traders think about an early exit to limit losses. We're going to raise ours top loss to $54.95.

Picked on August 20 at $ 59.13
Change since picked: - 3.12
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 475 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 44.12 change: +0.28 stop: 39.95

Housing stocks were trading higher today. The DJUSHB home construction index added 1.8%. Unfortunately, RYL under performed its peers and the rally in RYL stalled out at $44.50. We're still waiting for a breakout over $45.00. Our trigger to buy calls is at $45.15. Our short-term target is the $49.50-50.00 range, which is a slight adjustment from our original target. Watch out for potential resistance at the descending 100-dma near $50.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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United Ind. - UIC - close: 52.74 change: +0.97 stop: 47.49

UIC displayed another round of relative strength with Monday's 1.8% bullish breakout over short-term resistance at $52.00. More patient traders may still want to look for a dip in the $51.50-51.00 region. We will continue to target the $54.75-55.00 range but we're also adding a secondary target at $57.50. We would suggest selling half or more of your position at the first target and the rest at $57.50. The P&F chart points to a $64 target.

Picked on August 27 at $ 51.77
Change since picked: + 0.97
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 198 thousand

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VF Corp. - VFC - close: 68.53 change: +0.76 stop: 68.45

VFC is bouncing from technical support at its 50-dma and aggressive traders may want to enter positions now. We are still waiting on a breakout over resistance near $70.00. Right now we're using a trigger to buy calls at $70.25. If triggered we're targeting a short-term rally into the $74.00-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points toward a $99 target.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 567 thousand

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Valero - VLO - close: 60.39 change: -2.01 stop: 59.99

News that the weather service had downgraded hurricane Ernesto to a tropical storm and that the storm would veer north and miss the oil-producing Gulf region sent crude oil futures slipping lower toward $70 a barrel. The big drop in crude oil was felt the hardest by oil service stocks. The OSX index lost 2.8%. Shares of VLO fell 3.2% and back toward round-number support near $60.00. Conservative traders might want to try and exit early. The stock closed at its lows for the day and that's bad news for tomorrow. Odds are VLO will hit $60 tomorrow morning. The question is will the stock bounce before hitting our stop loss at $59.99. More aggressive traders might want to widen their stop to $59.90 or $59.75 just to give VLO some maneuvering room but we are not suggesting it.

Picked on August 20 at $ 61.84
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million
 

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 88.15 change: +0.94 stop: 89.05

We do not see any changes from our new play description from the weekend. Right now we are waiting for a breakdown under support near $86.00. Our trigger to buy puts is at $85.85. More aggressive traders might want to consider a failed rally under $89 (or Monday's high near 88.50) as a new entry point. Our target is the $81.00-80.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 663 thousand

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Boeing - BA - close: 74.72 change: +0.79 stop: 78.05

A positive market bias on Monday and news that BA announced a $3 billion stock buy back program helped BA produce an oversold bounce. The rally did stall near broken support and what should be resistance near $75.00 but we'd be careful about starting new plays right here. Over the weekend we thought a failed rally under $75 could be used as a new entry point but now we suspect that BA could bounce to $76.00 or $76.50 before rolling over again. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 75.75
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 65.67 chg: -0.39 stop: 70.25

The news about hurricane/tropical storm Ernesto sent crude oil lower and that fueled a rally in airlines and transports. Yet the railroad stocks did not participate. BNI produced another lower high and failed rally at the top edge of its bearish, descending channel. Our target remains the $62.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 08 at $ 68.06
Change since picked: - 2.39
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Chipotle Mex Grill - CMG - close: 48.90 chg: -0.00 stop: 52.55

CMG closed unchanged on Monday and the good news is that the stock failed to participate in the market's rally. We don't see any changes from our weekend update. We're not suggesting new plays because CMG still looks short-term oversold and due for a bounce. We are targeting a decline into the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 09 at $ 50.28
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand

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Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 50.93 change: +0.69 stop: 52.05

Watch out! This could be a bear trap! Over the weekend we added CYT to the play list with a trigger to buy puts at $49.75. Monday morning saw CYT breakdown under support at $50.00 and trade to $49.65 followed by an immediate bounce higher. The move almost looks like a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally interpreted as a bullish reversal. We are not suggesting new plays with CYT above $50.00 and more conservative traders might want to tighten their stops if you did open plays this morning to limit losses.

Picked on August 28 at $ 49.75
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 241 thousand

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Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - cls: 93.21 chg: +1.11 stop: 97.75

ISRG is still trying to bounce from the $90 region but so far shares are trading under a short-term pattern of lower highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and points to a $60 target. We are only aiming for a decline into the $87.75-87.50 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 94.90
Change since picked: - 1.86
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 71.44 chg: +0.52 stop: 75.51

The first thing we noticed about JCI today was how low the volume was. We warned readers over the weekend to expect a bounce and JCI delivered one. The good news here is that the rebound stalled out twice near the $72 level. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $68.50-67.50 range. The P&F chart, with its triple-bottom breakdown sell signal, points to a $61 target.

Picked on August 22 at $ 72.96
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Radian Group - RDN - close: 60.10 chg: +0.47 stop: 61.51

There is no change from our weekend new play description on RDN. As we expected the stock did produce a bounce form its 200-dma. The good news, however, is that the bounce failed pretty quickly. We are still suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $58.99. If triggered our target is the $55.15-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 722 thousand

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Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 66.68 chg: -2.28 stop: 70.25

RIG is another casualty of the Ernesto storm, crude oil pullback, oil stock sell-off today. Traders might want to use this as a new bearish entry point or wait for another decline under $66.00. The stock has already hit our conservative target at $65.25. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $61 level. Currently the P&F chart points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 07 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 2.81
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 149.53 chg: -0.54 stop: 149.40

We have been stopped out of GS at $148.25. Our stop loss was actually at $149.40 but shares of GS gapped open lower after Barron's published some negative comments on the brokers this past weekend.

Picked on August 16 at $154.99
Change since picked: - 5.46
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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