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Call Updates

The Andersons - ANDE - close: 39.62 chg: -0.12 stop: 37.49

Once again shares of ANDE traded over round-number resistance at the $40.00 level and again the stock failed to hold these gains. ANDE's failure to hold any bullish breakout over the $40.00 mark makes us cautious. The next move could be a dip back toward the 50-dma near $39.00 or the 10-dma near $37.70. We are not suggesting new bullish positions with ANDE under $40.00. A dip and bounce anywhere above $37.50 could be used as a more aggressive entry point to buy calls. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 28 at $ 40.26
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 900 thousand

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AstraZeneca - AZN - close: 64.31 change: +0.99 stop: 59.95

Tuesday saw more gains for the drug sector. The DRG index hit another two-year high. Shares of AZN also turned higher and posted a 1.5% gain on above average volume. The good news here is that AZN has broken out higher from its week-long trading range. More conservative traders might want to take some profits as AZN nears potential round-number resistance at $65. Our target is the $68.00-69.00 range but our time frame is mid-October.

Picked on August 20 at $ 62.99
Change since picked: + 1.32
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Cameco - CCJ - close: 39.42 change: +0.15 stop: 37.95

Tuesday was the second day in a row that shares of CCJ found support near the $38.80 region. We don't see any changes from our previous update. We would not suggest new call positions until CCJ traded back above $40.00 or $40.50. The Point & Figure chart is still bullish with a $55 target. More conservative traders may want to consider tightening their stops toward the $38.80 level. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 40.33
Change since picked: - 0.91
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 70.53 chg: -0.67 stop: 68.45

Given the volatility in CTSH on Tuesday our stop loss might be too close. The stock spiked higher on Tuesday morning and hit our trigger to buy calls at $71.55 so the play is now open. Unfortunately, shares immediately turned south and dipped back toward the $68.75 region, which has been support during the last few days. Bulls did step in to buy the dip and CTSH pared most of its losses but we're not suggesting new positions with CTSH under $71.50. We'd wait for another rise past $71.50 or even $72.00 before buying calls. Our target is the $76.50-77.50 range.

Picked on August 29 at $ 71.55
Change since picked: - 1.02
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 39.97 chg: +0.69 stop: 39.95

The SOX semiconductor index turned in a strong session rising 1.6%. This helped shares of CYMI bounce higher (+1.7%) but the stock is still under resistance at $40.00 and its 50-dma. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. We currently have two triggers on the stock to catch a breakout either way. If shares move higher we have a trigger to buy calls at $42.55. If shares move lower we have a trigger to buy puts at $37.74.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 57.02 chg: +0.43 stop: 53.95

The intraday weakness in FCX was a bit disconcerting. Shares traded under support at the bottom of its recent trading range near $56.00 and its simple 200-dma. Fortunately, FCX did not fall far and the stock rebounded higher with the afternoon market rally. The rebound from $56 could be used as a new entry point to buy calls but more conservative readers may want to wait for a breakout over $58.00. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range. Traders should also note that we do expect some short-term resistance near $60.00 and a retest of the 100-dma, once broken as resistance, should act as support.

Picked on August 23 at $ 57.51
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million

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MicroStrategy - MSTR - close: 91.54 chg: +0.17 stop: 87.40

MSTR displayed a little bit of volatility today. The stock dipped to $89.38 but traders bought the dip and shares eventually closed in the green. We see the rebound today as another entry point to buy calls but more conservative traders might want to wait for a move past the simple 200-dma, the $92.00 level or even the simple 100-dma. This remains a somewhat aggressive play given MSTR's volatility. More conservative traders might want to use a tighter stop loss. Currently our target is the $98.75-99.00 range.

Picked on August 16 at $ 92.05
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 431 thousand

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 55.84 change: +0.65 stop: 51.65

PJC continues to show relative strength. Traders bought the dip around $54.60 and the stock rallied back toward the top of its trading range and resistance near $56.00. At this point in the game, if you have not opened positions yet, we'd wait for a breakout over $56.00. Our target is the $59.90-60.00 range.

Picked on August 20 at $ 55.70
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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FreightCar Amer. - RAIL - cls: 56.86 chg: +0.84 stop: 54.95

It was a bullish day for RAIL. The stock out performed the broader markets and its peers in the transportation and railroad sectors. The stock rose 1.49% but we could not find any specific news or catalyst to explain the rally. We did note that volume came in pretty low but that's to be expected during this late-summer week. We are a little concerned about the bearish technicals that the recent pull back in RAIL has produced. Aggressive traders might want to buy this bounce. We would wait for a move past the 200-dma and 100-dma near $58.00 before buying calls.

Picked on August 20 at $ 59.13
Change since picked: - 2.27
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 475 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 42.64 change: -1.48 stop: 39.95

We recently received a reader email about our RYL play. Some of the comments we received only encouraged us to discuss trading with triggers. Right now we are on the sidelines with RYL. There is no position (real or hypothetical) yet in RYL. It does not matter how high or low the call option values move until we're triggered. Our strategy specifically states that we're waiting for a breakout over resistance at $45.00 and our official entry point will be $45.15 or higher. We suggest triggers for a reason usually because we want to see something happen first in the stock to confirm our suspicions about the next short-term move. We also want to remind readers that technical analysis is not perfect. Conditions can change and outside events can impact stock prices no matter what the technical picture is saying. Case in point... as of yesterday RYL had rallied back toward resistance near $45.00 and look poised to breakout higher. However, today the stock gapped open lower and closed with a 3.3% loss. Why? The stock turned lower because an analyst firm cut their rating on RYL to a "sell" before the opening bell. Reaction to the news prompted the gap down. Whether it is an analyst rating change, a company's earnings results, or some economic report there is no way for you or I to know the results beforehand. We can look at estimates but take for example an earnings report. We almost always plan to exit before an earnings report to limit our risk. We do this because we don't know what the news is or more importantly how the markets will react to the news and it's usually not worth the risk. Back to our play on RYL... we don't see any changes and continue to wait for the move over $45.00. If the housing sector reverses lower and/or RYL breaks down from its bullish pattern of higher lows then we might consider switching directions and buying puts on a break down below $40.00. We have to trade what we see not what we believe.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million

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United Ind. - UIC - close: 53.65 change: +0.91 stop: 49.45*new*

UIC continues to out perform. The stock added another 1.7% on Tuesday. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $49.45. We will continue to target the $54.75-55.00 range but we're also adding a secondary target at $57.50. We would suggest selling half or more of your position at the first target and the rest at $57.50. The P&F chart points to a $64 target.

Picked on August 27 at $ 51.77
Change since picked: + 1.88
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 198 thousand

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VF Corp. - VFC - close: 70.10 change: +1.57 stop: 68.45

VFC displayed a lot of strength today. The stock did not see the midday swoon we witnessed in the major averages. Instead shares of VFC shot higher and is currently challenging resistance in the $70.00-70.20 region. The high today was $70.20. Our trigger to buy calls is at $70.25, which would be a new all-time high for the stock. If triggered we're targeting a short-term rally into the $74.00-75.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points toward a $99 target.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 567 thousand
 

Put Updates

AutoZone - AZO - close: 88.15 change: +0.94 stop: 89.05

AZO is still bouncing. The bounce does seem to be losing its steam but shares did clear the 50-dma today. Right now we are waiting for a breakdown under support near $86.00. Our trigger to buy puts is at $85.85. More aggressive traders might want to consider a failed rally under $89 as a new entry point. Our target is the $81.00-80.00 range.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 09/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 663 thousand

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Boeing - BA - close: 73.78 change: -0.94 stop: 78.05

BA turned in a bearish session. The stock spiked higher only to see the rally fail at the $76.00 level. The sell-off was fueled by strong volume and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We continue to target the $70.50-70.00 range. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops.

Picked on August 10 at $ 75.75
Change since picked: - 1.97
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 65.33 chg: -0.34 stop: 70.25

The trading in BNI seems to be narrowing. The stock is consolidating between support in the $64 area and the top of its descending channel so in effect shares are being squeezed. We should see BNI produce a breakout one way or the other soon. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops. Our target remains the $62.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart currently points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 08 at $ 68.06
Change since picked: - 2.73
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million

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Chipotle Mex Grill - CMG - close: 49.80 chg: +0.90 stop: 52.55

We hope no one was surprised by CMG's bounce today. We've been warning readers that CMG was short-term oversold and due for a rebound. If you follow the current trendline of overhead resistance then CMG should encounter said trendline in the $51.50-52.00 region. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. We are targeting a decline into the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 09 at $ 50.28
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand

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Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - cls: 92.33 chg: -0.88 stop: 97.75

We do not see any changes from our previous updates on ISRG. The stock is essentially trading sideways but we do note a bearish, short-term trend of lower highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and points to a $60 target. We are only aiming for a decline into the $87.75-87.50 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 94.90
Change since picked: - 2.74
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 70.71 chg: -0.73 stop: 75.51

JCI continues to under perform the market. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $68.50-67.50 range. The P&F chart, with its triple-bottom breakdown sell signal, points to a $61 target.

Picked on August 22 at $ 72.96
Change since picked: - 2.25
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Radian Group - RDN - close: 60.20 chg: +0.10 stop: 61.51

There is no change from our weekend new play description on RDN. We are still suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $58.99. If triggered our target is the $55.15-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 722 thousand

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Transocean Inc. - RIG - cls: 66.52 chg: -0.16 stop: 70.25

We see no changes from our previous updates on RIG. The stock has already hit our conservative target at $65.25. Our secondary, aggressive target is the $61 level. Currently the P&F chart points to a $49 target.

Picked on August 07 at $ 69.49
Change since picked: - 2.97
Earnings Date 08/03/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

Valero - VLO - close: 59.89 change: -0.50 stop: 59.99

We have been stopped out of VLO at $59.98. Another decline in crude oil impacted the oil stocks. Shares of VLO actually gapped down and opened at $59.98 and dipped to its simple 200-dma near $59.25 before bouncing.

Picked on August 20 at $ 61.84
Change since picked: - 1.95
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.1 million
 

Dropped Puts

Cytec Ind. - CYT - close: 52.05 change: +1.12 stop: 52.05

We have been stopped out of CYT at $52.05. The stock posted a second day of gains following yesterday's fake-out. You may recall that CYT broke down under significant support at the $50.00 level on Monday morning only to rebound higher. We suspect the move is due to the sizeable declines in crude oil this week. Oil can be a major expense in chemical manufacturing.

Picked on August 28 at $ 49.75
Change since picked: + 2.30
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 241 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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