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Call Updates

The Andersons - ANDE - close: 39.63 chg: -3.06 stop: 38.90

Ouch! It was a very ugly day for shares of ANDE. The markets suffered a broad-based day of profit taking and investors chopped off several days of gains in ANDE with one fell swoop (-7.1%) on rising volume. The breakdown and close under what should have been round-number support at $40.00 and technical support at its 10-dma is bad news. Traders may want to seriously consider exiting immediately as odds are very good that if the market sees any follow through lower tomorrow morning we'll be stopped out at $38.90.

Picked on August 28 at $ 40.26
Change since picked: + 2.43
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 900 thousand

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Allegheny Tech. - ATI - cls: 60.59 chg: -1.73 stop: 56.95

Steel stocks were not excused from the market-wide profit taking on Wednesday. Shares of ATI lost 2.7% and closed back under its 50-dma. We would wait for signs of a bounce from the $60 level before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range but we do expect some resistance near $65 and its 100-dma (64.85).

Picked on September 05 at $ 62.32
Change since picked: - 1.73
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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AstraZeneca - AZN - close: 63.27 change: -1.12 stop: 61.95 *new*

It was just two days ago that the DRG drug index was hitting new one-year highs and AZN was hitting new all-time highs. Now the group and AZN is seeing more profit taking and the momentum indicators are turning south. We are not suggesting new bullish positions in AZN at this time. Instead we're raising our stop loss to $61.95, since broken resistance near $62.00 should offer some support. More aggressive traders might want to leave their stop under the rising 50-dma, currently at 60.93.

Picked on August 20 at $ 62.99
Change since picked: + 0.28
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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Cameco - CCJ - close: 41.17 change: -1.18 stop: 38.75

This afternoon CCJ marked down its 2007 gold production forecasts. The stock lost 2.7% on the session but we suspect that was due to the market-wide profit taking. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $40 before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $44.50-45.00 range.

Picked on August 22 at $ 40.33
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 07/28/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Carpenter Tech. - CRS - cls: 99.85 chg: -3.67 stop: 97.45

CRS produced a bearish reversal on Wednesday. The stock lost 3.5% and closed back under its 50-dma and what should have been support at the $100.00 mark. The sharp sell-off is bad news for the bulls and CRS could dip all the way back toward technical support at its 200-dma near $95. Of course a move that deep would stop us out at $97.45. We are not suggesting new positions at the moment and given the momentum behind today's reversal more conservative traders might want to tighten their stops even further or exit early.

Picked on September 05 at $101.10 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 847 thousand

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Cognizant Tech. - CTSH - close: 69.83 chg: -1.67 stop: 68.45

The sharp sell-off in tech stocks was definitely felt in shares of CTSH. The stock reversed yesterday's rally and closed back under the $70.00 mark. We're not suggesting new bullish plays at this time and more conservative traders might want to tighten their stops even further (maybe around $69.25).

Picked on August 29 at $ 71.55
Change since picked: - 1.72
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 41.30 chg: -0.91 stop: 39.95

Call it bad luck or call it stock price manipulation but we have been triggered in CYMI. The stock rallied to $42.70 early this morning before quickly reversing lower. Our trigger to buy calls was at $42.55, which was above resistance at $42.50 and its exponential 200-dma. If you look you'll notice that the SOX semiconductor index saw no such morning rally higher. At any rate the move today is a failed rally/bearish reversal and we're not suggesting new plays at this time. More conservative traders, if you did open positions, might just want to exit early and cut losses now. The next move looks like a dip toward what should be support near $40.00. Our stop loss is at $39.95.

Picked on September 06 at $ 42.55
Change since picked: - 1.25
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Emerson Elec. - EMR - close: 82.00 chg: -1.40 stop: 79.99

Profit taking pushed EMR to a 1.6% loss. A bounce from here, near its 10-dma and 100-dma, would be a positive sign. Yet we expect the dip to continue. Watch for a bounce near $81.00 as a potential bullish entry point. Our target is the $89.00-90.00 range.

Picked on September 05 at $ 83.55
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 60.35 chg: -1.24 stop: 55.95

We warned readers to expect a potential "fill the gap" move. That would suggest that FCX will continue to dip toward $59.50 and maybe toward the rising 10-dma, near 58.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $62.50-63.00 range.

Picked on August 23 at $ 57.51
Change since picked: + 2.84
Earnings Date 10/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million

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Phelps Dodge - PD - close: 92.56 change: -0.92 stop: 87.75

PD failed to breakout over the $95 level again today and shares began to slip lower as the sell-off in the markets grew into the afternoon. The session was also host to some analyst comments. One analyst upgraded PD to an "out perform" while another analyst started coverage with a "sector perform" and a $110 price target. We are expecting a dip back towards $90 as the stock "fills the gap" from yesterday morning. Wait and watch for the bounce before considering new positions. Our target is still the $97.50-100.00 range.

Picked on September 01 at $ 90.55
Change since picked: + 2.01
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.7 million

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United Ind. - UIC - close: 54.32 change: -0.94 stop: 49.99

Watch out! We have been warning readers that UIC was looking short-term overbought and due for some profit taking. Today's 1.7% decline and bearish engulfing candlestick looks like the beginning of a multi-day consolidation. The stock has already hit our primary target in the $54.75-55.00 range and more conservative traders may just want to exit completely right now. We're expecting a dip toward the $52 region. Our secondary target is the $57.50 level.

Picked on August 27 at $ 51.77
Change since picked: + 2.55
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 198 thousand

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VF Corp. - VFC - close: 69.59 change: -0.23 stop: 68.45

The lack of follow through on yesterday's afternoon bounce is discouraging. We seriously considered exiting early after today's close back under the $70.00 level. More conservative traders might want to give that idea more thought. The overall trend remains bullish but unless you want to put your stop loss under the 50-dma near $68 then odds are good that any pull back tomorrow we will be stopped out at $68.45. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on August 30 at $ 70.25
Change since picked: - 0.66
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 567 thousand
 

Put Updates

Boeing - BA - close: 74.44 change: -0.92 stop: 78.05

The big news today in BA was the announcement that Ford (F) had picked Alan Mulally as their new president and chief executive officer. Alan had been the leader of BA's commercial plane division. The news hardly helped BA during the market's sell-off today. The stock lost 1.22% and closed back under the $75 level. This looks like another entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $70.50-70.00 range.

Picked on August 10 at $ 75.75
Change since picked: - 1.31
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Chipotle Mex Grill - CMG - close: 50.09 chg: -0.42 stop: 52.55

The pull back in CMG appeared mild. We would wait for another decline under Wednesday's low (49.74) before considering new positions. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range. The P&F chart is still bearish and points to a $39 target.

Picked on August 09 at $ 50.28
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand

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EOG Resources - EOG - close: 63.15 chg: -3.46 stop: 66.55

Another slide in crude oil futures helped fuel the big sell-off in oil stocks today. Shares of EOG were hit with a 5.19% drop on rising volume. Shares broke down under support at $64.00, which was also the neckline to its bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The move also produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart. Our trigger to buy puts was at $63.85 so the play is now open. Our target is the $57.50-55.00 range. Remember, the biggest risk we see to this play is any escalation with the U.S. and Iran.

Picked on September 06 at $ 63.85
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 69.79 chg: -1.55 stop: 75.51

JCI has broken down to a new relative low under support at the $70.00 level. The stock is in striking distance of our target in the $68.50-67.50 range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops.

Picked on August 22 at $ 72.96
Change since picked: - 3.17
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Radian Group - RDN - close: 59.08 chg: -1.71 stop: 61.51

Our put play in RDN is now open. The market sell-off sparked new selling pressure in RDN. The stock spiked lower at the open and eventually traded to a new six-week low and under technical support at its simple and exponential 200-dma(s). Our suggested trigger to buy puts was at $58.99 and the low today was $58.96. Now that the play is open our target is the $55.15-55.00 range.

Picked on September 06 at $ 58.99
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 722 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

None
 

Dropped Calls

MicroStrategy - MSTR - close: 90.98 chg: -1.80 stop: 89.45

We're going to throw in the towel on MSTR. We voiced our opinion yesterday that the failure to hold its intraday gains above the 100 and 200-dma was a concern. The move is now looking like a failed rally at technical resistance. More aggressive traders might want to keep the play open but the technical picture has deteriorated and traders might want to be thinking put options if MSTR trades under $89.50.

Picked on August 16 at $ 92.05
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 431 thousand

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Southern Peru Copper - PCU - cls: 96.90 chg: +0.23 stop: 89.99

Target achieved. PCU bucked the market's downtrend this morning and rallied to an intraday high of $98.95. Our target was the $98.00-100.00 range. We would keep an eye on a pull back toward the $50-dma near $90.00 as a potential entry point to consider buying calls again.

Picked on August 31 at $ 92.32
Change since picked: + 4.58
Earnings Date 07/26/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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FreightCar Amer. - RAIL - cls: 57.29 chg: -2.30 stop: 54.95

It's time to disembark shares of RAIL. The recent breakout over technical resistance at its 100-dma and 200-dma has failed at the $60.00 level. Today's 3.8% drop in RAIL is a technical breakdown back below those same moving averages. What really concerns us is that Dow Jones Transportation average (TRAN). The TRAN has been consolidating sideways for the last four weeks and today's move is a bearish breakdown and sell signal. Readers might want to consider buying puts on RAIL if the stock trades under 56.50 or the $55.00 mark.

Picked on August 20 at $ 59.13
Change since picked: - 1.84
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 475 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 40.05 change: -1.76 stop: 39.95

The homebuilding sector really hit some selling today. The DJUSHB home construction index lost 3.7%. Shares of RYL fell 4.2% and the move produced a new MACD sell signal and a breakdown below its 50-dma. Traders might want to consider buying puts if RYL closes under $40.00. It was our plan to catch a breakout over resistance at $45.00 but that never happened. Our trigger to buy calls was at $45.15. RYL is dropped as a bullish candidate.

Picked on August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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