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Call Updates

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 40.64 change: +1.04 stop: 37.90

Double check those seat belts because this might be a bumpy ride in BZH. The homebuilders edged higher today and BZH out performed many of its peers with a 2.6% rally and a bullish breakout over resistance at $40.00 and its 50-dma. That's the good news - relative strength in BZH. The bad news is that rival builder MTH announced another earnings warning after the closing bell tonight. At this time we did not see any heavy after hours selling in either MTH or BZH so maybe the sector can shrug off the bad news. It's not like we haven't heard the news before from a handful of builders in the past few weeks. Shares of BZH did hit our trigger to buy calls at $40.75 so the play is now open and our target is the $46-47 range. We do not want to hold over the November earnings report.

Picked on September 18 at $ 40.75
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Cymer Inc. - CYMI - close: 44.00 chg: +0.00 stop: 39.95

The SOX semiconductor index managed to out perform the rest of the market thanks to news that Freescale Semiconductor was accepting a buyout offer from private investors. The SOX added just over 1%. Meanwhile shares of CYMI continued to trade sideways (unchanged today) with another failed rally at resistance near $45.00 and another bounce from the bottom of its recent trading range. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Something to keep in mind is that while the first two weeks of September bucked the historical trend of weakness the next four weeks have a very strong history of weakness for stocks. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stop loss on CYMI.

Picked on September 06 at $ 42.55
Change since picked: + 1.43
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Hartford Finc. - HIG - close: 86.09 chg: -0.95 stop: 82.99

Hmm... this back and forth up and down trading in HIG is not a sign of strength. The stock has struggled to hold any of its gains following the bullish breakout over resistance a week ago. It's true that volume came in pretty light today, which would suggest a lack of conviction behind today's slide (-1%) but it was a slide nonetheless. Readers can use a bounce from here ($86.00) as a new bullish entry point but remember that our market outlook for the next four weeks is not very optimistic. Our target is the $91.50-92.00 range, near its May highs. However, we do expect some resistance in the $89-90 region. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September 12 at $ 86.29
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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Manpower - MAN - close: 60.76 chg: -0.14 stop: 57.99

MAN spent the session churning sideways. We don't see any changes from our weekend update and still expect a dip back toward the $60.00 level and/or its simple 10-dma currently near 59.61. The $60.00 mark is broken resistance so it should offer some support. However, we're cautious on the market's strength so more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops (suggestions are 59.45 or $58.99). We're leaving our stop at $57.99 for now. Currently our target is the $65.00-66.00 range.

Picked on September 12 at $ 60.28
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 900 thousand

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Mettler Toledo - MTD - close: 65.14 chg: -0.29 stop: 59.99

MTD posted a decline on Monday but it was minor and the lack of real profit taking could be interpreted as more relative strength. The lack of volume on Monday would also suggest a lack of sellers (and buyers for that matter). We don't see any changes from our weekend update. The stock still looks short-term overbought and due for a dip so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $68-69 range. Please note that we normally try to avoid playing stocks with average volume this low so traders may want to consider this a higher-risk play. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 13 at $ 63.66
Change since picked: + 1.48
Earnings Date 10/26/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 169 thousand

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Omnicom - OMC - close: 91.92 chg: -0.40 stop: 88.84

There is no change from our weekend update. We're still looking for more of a dip probably back toward the rising 10-dma (currently near 91.11) and potentially back to the $90 region. Our target is the $96.00-96.50 range. We would definitely wait for the pull back and signs of a bounce before considering new call positions. We do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Picked on September 10 at $ 90.97
Change since picked: + 0.95
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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United Ind. - UIC - close: 55.15 change: +0.25 stop: 51.45

The trading in UIC was favorable. The stock shrugged off weakness in the defense sector and managed to hit a new four-month high on an intraday basis and still close in the green. Shares have already hit our initial target in the $54.75-55.00 range and we're now targeting the $57.50 mark.

Picked on August 27 at $ 51.77
Change since picked: + 3.38
Earnings Date 08/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 198 thousand
 

Put Updates

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 66.99 chg: +1.56 stop: 67.36

There are no changes from our weekend play description on CAT. The stock did see a strong bounce on Monday but the bearish pattern of lower highs is still in affect. The DJIA might try and tag its all-time high before rolling over. Meanwhile we are still waiting for a breakdown. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $64.59. The P&F chart points to a $48 target. If triggered our short-term target is the $60.25-60.00 range.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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EOG Resources - EOG - close: 62.69 chg: +2.85 stop: 64.15

The energy sector was looking oversold so chatter about potential supply disruptions sparked a big bounce in the group. The OIX oil index added 2% and the somewhat volatile OSX oil services index produced a 3.2% rebound. Shares of EOG out performed most of its peers with a 4.7% bounce on strong volume. The rally failed at broken support/new resistance near $64.00. Normally we'd watch for a failed rally under $64 as a new entry point but we're worried that crude might continue to rebound so we are suggesting caution here. Our target is the $57.50-55.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Picked on September 06 at $ 63.85
Change since picked: - 1.16
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million

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Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 83.10 chg: +0.42 stop: 82.51

There is no change from our weekend update on ESRX. We are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout in ESRX. The stock has been trading sideways in the $80-85 range for six weeks. Taking into account that the next four weeks are usually a very bearish time period for stocks odds are definitely growing in favor of a breakdown. We're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $79.85. If triggered our target is the $75.50-75.00 range.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

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Johnson Controls - JCI - close: 70.74 chg: -1.12 stop: 74.16

JCI lost 1.55% on Monday, which is a nice follow through on Friday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Conservative traders could tighten their stop loss toward Friday's high. Our target remains the $68.50-67.50 range. The P&F chart is more bearish with a $56 target.

Picked on August 22 at $ 72.96
Change since picked: - 2.22
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Jacobs Engineering - JEC - cls: 78.97 chg: -1.01 stop: 82.26

Our new play in JEC is now open. The stock continued to sink after shares broke down under the $80.00 level and potential technical support at its simple 200-dma. Volume came in strong again with today's 1.2% decline. We suggested a trigger to buy puts at $79.45 so the play is now open and our target is the $72.50-70.00 range.

Picked on September 18 at $ 79.45
Change since picked: - 0.48
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 416 thousand

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Joy Global - JOYG - close: 37.52 change: +1.24 stop: 37.51

There is no change from our weekend new play description on JOYG. We're waiting for a breakdown under $35.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $34.95. If triggered our target is the $30.50-30.00 range.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/30/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million

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Las Vegas Sands - LVS - close: 66.85 change: -0.86 stop: 70.05

Believe it or not we were not triggered today. Shares of LVS continued to sink on Monday and dipped to $66.00 before bouncing sharply back to an intraday high of $68.49. The overall trading pattern continues to look bearish. More aggressive traders may want to enter put positions now. We're waiting with our suggested trigger to buy puts at $65.99 (under today's low). If triggered our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early November earnings report.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million

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Nucor - NUE - close: 48.77 change: +2.01 stop: 50.01

Steel-related stocks actually produced a rally on Monday. Shares of NUE added over 4% and broke out higher from its four-day trading range. Yet the stock remains in a bearish pattern overall. Aggressive traders might want to consider new put positions on a failed rally near $50 and its 50-dma. However, if NUE can trade over the 100-dma or the $52.50 level it would be a significant bullish breakout and traders would need to consider buying calls instead. We're still waiting for a breakdown under $46.00. Our suggested trigger to buy puts is at $45.95. If triggered our target is the $40.50-40.00 range. The P&F chart has a relatively new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $41 target. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 52.83 chg: +1.90 stop: 52.05

STLD is another steel-related stock that was caught up in a sector-wide bounce. We're still on the sidelines waiting for a bearish breakdown under support. Our suggested entry point to buy puts is at $49.40. If triggered our target is the $45.15-45.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million

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Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 70.93 chg: -2.17 stop: 76.61

The sell-off in WYNN continued on Monday and shares lost another 2.9% on strong volume. The stock broke down under its 50-dma and 100-dma following Friday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We have adjusted our entry point to this morning's open at $72.51 instead of Friday's close (73.10). The stock is testing potential, round-number support near $70 so don't be surprised to see a bounce back toward $73-74. A failed rally under $74.00 could be used as a new entry point to buy puts. Our target is the $68.50-68.00 range, which takes into account potential support at the rising 200-dma. Aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Picked on September 18 at $ 72.51 *adjusted
Change since picked: - 1.58
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
 

Strangle Updates

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Dropped Calls

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Dropped Puts

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Dropped Strangles

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