Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

Call Updates

CNOOC Ltd - CEO - close: 84.11 change: +0.21 stop: 82.89

Oil stocks were posting gains on Wednesday thanks to a bounce in crude oil futures. The OIX oil index rose 1.2% and the OSX oil services index jumped 2.1%. Shares of CEO are still under performing its peers but the move was higher today. We're still waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $85.00 level. Our suggested entry point to buy calls is at $85.25. If triggered our target is the $89.50-90.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/31/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 264 thousand

---

Cerner Corp. - CERN - close: 49.85 chg: -0.42 stop: 46.90

Tomorrow could be a good day for networking stocks. Networking titan CSCO reported earnings after the bell today and the results were pretty good. CSCO closed at two-year highs near $25 and after hours the stock was trading north of $27 on the news. That could help fuel another gain in shares of CERN. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $52.00-52.50 range.

Picked on October 30 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 10/19/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 662 thousand

---

GlobalSantaFe - GSF - close: 55.39 chg: +1.79 stop: 49.39

It looks like GSF had some good news today but we cannot find it. The stock soared with a 3.3% gain to breakout over resistance at its 200-dma and the $55 level. Furthermore the move looks pretty bullish with the strong volume behind it. This may just be a reaction to strength in crude oil and oil service stocks. Our target is the $57.50-58.00 range.

Picked on November 05 at $ 52.39
Change since picked: + 3.00
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million

---

Holly Corp. - HOC - close: 49.88 change: +0.89 stop: 47.95

It's about time HOC showed some strength again. The stock bounced for a 1.8% gain but shares remain under round-number resistance at the $50.00 mark. More aggressive traders may want to buy today's bounce. We would wait for a move over $50 and maybe over $50.75. Our target is the $54.90-55.00 range.

Picked on November 05 at $ 50.75
Change since picked: - 0.87
Earnings Date 11/01/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

---

Petroleo Brasileiro - PBR - cls: 91.96 chg: +1.85 stop: 85.65

PBR enjoyed a strong session on Wednesday. The rebound in crude oil futures helped push PBR to a 2% gain and a new two-month high. This could be used as another entry point. Our target is the $95.00-96.00 range. FYI: PBR is a Brasilian stock traded as an ADR here in the U.S. One risk traders are facing is the company's earnings report. We cannot find a specific date or even a history of recent earnings reports. The risk is that they announce a negative report while we're trading them.

Picked on November 06 at $ 90.05
Change since picked: + 1.91
Earnings Date 00/00/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million

---

Transocean - RIG - close: 77.19 change: +1.54 stop: 71.99*new*

Oil service stocks produced a healthy gain and shares of RIG added just over 2% to close over its 200-dma again. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $79.50 level. Our aggressive target is the $84.00 level. FYI: We are raising the stop loss to $71.99.

Picked on November 05 at $ 75.07
Change since picked: + 2.12
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million

---

Schlumberger - SLB - cls: 65.28 chg: +1.27 stop: 60.95

It was a bullish day for SLB. Oil service stocks were strong and the stock rose 1.98% to breakout over the $65.00 level. Traders may want to consider new positions here but if you're opening new plays now you may want to raise your target toward $69-70. Currently our target is the $67.50-68.00 range.

Picked on November 05 at $ 63.50
Change since picked: + 1.78
Earnings Date 10/20/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

---

Vimpel Comm. - VIP - close: 65.53 chg: +0.74 stop: 62.49

Wednesday turned out to be something of a volatile day for VIP. The stock spiked to $63.30 just after the opening bell but quickly turned things around to close in the green. The stock now looks poised to breakout over the $66 level soon. Don't forget that we're dealing with a rising environment of risk due to the earnings report. The company is expected to report this month but we can't find a specific date. Estimates for when VIP will announce range from November 7th to November 23rd. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range.

Picked on October 12 at $ 62.17
Change since picked: + 3.36
Earnings Date 11/17/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
 

Put Updates

Alcon Inc. - ACL - close: 104.78 chg: -1.40 stop: 110.01

Drug stocks trended lower on Wednesday as investors worried that a democrat-controlled house might be bad news for drug makers and healthcare stocks. Shares of ACL lost 1.3% and set a new three-month closing low. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward the $108 level. Our target is the $100.10-100.00 range.

Picked on October 31 at $105.75
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 10/23/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 520 thousand

---

Advanced Micro Dev. - AMD - cls: 21.25 chg: -0.31 stop: 22.05

Hmm... there was no third day of gains for the semiconductors. The SOX closed fractionally in the red and AMD lost 1.4%. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Yesterday we suggested that more conservative traders may want to exit early and cut their losses now and we're repeating that suggestion today. Our target is the $17.50-17.00 range.

Picked on October 29 at $ 20.86
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 23.0 million

---

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 39.47 chg: +0.70 stop: 40.25

It looks like we need to go to yellow alert! AMZN posted its fourth gain in a row with the last two days garnering above average volume. That's bad news for the bears and today's rise above resistance at the $39.00 level is definitely a warning short for the bears. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to limit losses. We're holding on to see if AMZN reverses at round-number, psychological resistance at the $40.00 level. Our target is the $35.00-34.00 range.

Picked on October 29 at $ 38.24
Change since picked: + 1.23
Earnings Date 10/24/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.9 million

---

Cardinal Health - CAH - cls: 63.48 chg: -0.56 stop: 64.85

Shares of CAH gapped down this morning as investors reacted to election news that democrats would control the house and possibly the senate. CAH managed to rebound off its worst levels of the session but the trend still looks bearish. Right now we're waiting for a breakdown under support at $63 and again near $62.35. Our suggested entry point to buy puts is $61.99. If triggered our target is the $58.00-57.50 range. Be prepared for a bounce on CAH's initial test of the $60 level.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

---

Capital One Finc. - COF - cls: 77.50 chg: -0.04 stop: 80.05

We have to warn readers that the intraday trading in COF on Wednesday looks bullish. The stock looks poised to rebound higher and we'd look for the next level of resistance at the 10-dma near 78.90. Wait for a failed rally under the 10-dma before considering new positions. Our target is the $75.10-75.00 range.

Picked on October 31 at $ 79.33
Change since picked: - 1.83
Earnings Date 10/18/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

---

Centex - CTX - close: 49.65 change: -0.04 stop: 52.55

Homebuilders continued to show relative weakness on Wednesday. The DJUSHB index lost 1.5% but it bounced off its worst levels of the session. Shares of CTX did better than most of its peers with a sharp bounce from its intraday low - almost back to unchanged. The bounce may not be over yet. Watch for a failed rally under $50 or its 10-dma near 51.50 before considering new positions. Our target is the $45.50-45.00 range.

Picked on November 07 at $ 49.75
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 01/23/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million

---

Lehman Brothers - LEH - cls: 74.30 chg: -1.20 stop: 77.01

The bounce in LEH appears to have failed. The stock lost 1.5% and closed back under the $75 level today with volume coming in above average on the move (which is bearish). The XBD broker-dealer index also under performed the markets today. We are aiming for the $70.25-70.00 range but traders should be aware that the rising 50-dma near $73 could be short-term support to be prepared for another bounce.

Picked on November 05 at $ 74.43
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 12/13/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.6 million

---

Pantry Inc. - PTRY - close: 51.63 change: -0.89 stop: 56.01

PTRY sank to a new relative low midday. We really don't see any changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $48.00-47.00 range but we do expect a bounce on PTRY's initial test of the $50 level. We do not want to hold over the November 16th earnings report.

Picked on October 29 at $ 54.05
Change since picked: - 2.42
Earnings Date 11/16/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 383 thousand

---

Univ.Forest Prod. - UFPI - cls: 44.52 chg: -0.03 stop: 48.05

There is no change from our previous updates on UPFI. The stock traded sideways on Wednesday and the overall trend remains bearish. More conservative traders may want to think about tightening their stops toward the $46 level. We're aiming for a decline into the $41.00-40.00 range.

Picked on October 24 at $ 46.13
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 10/16/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 192 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

---

Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 148.74 chg: +0.51 stop: n/a

BSC managed to out perform the XBD broker-dealer index today but shares still look vulnerable to more selling. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options in our strangle are the November 155 call (BSC-KK) and the November 145 put (BSC-WI). Our estimated cost was $4.00. We're planning to exit if either option rises to $6.00 or more. FYI: Don't forget that November strikes expire in less than two weeks.

Picked on October 22 at $150.19
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 12/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million

---

Cephalon - CEPH - close: 74.59 change: +1.89 stop: n/a

CEPH was upgraded to a "strong buy" this morning and the stock reacted with a 2.59% gain with a rally to the $75 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The options in our strangle are the December $75 call (CQE-LO) and the December $65 put (CQE-XM). Our estimated cost was $3.45. We plan to see if either option rises to $4.90 or more.

Picked on October 29 at $ 69.35
Change since picked: + 5.24
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million

---

ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 62.37 chg: +1.38 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous updates on COP. Currently this play is in big trouble with the lack of a directional move. Our target is breakeven at $1.15 but more conservative traders may want to try and exit at a fraction of our estimated cost (50%, 75%, etc). We're not suggesting new positions. Our suggested options were the November $65 call (COP-KM) and the November $55 put (COP-WK).

Picked on October 15 at $ 60.03
Change since picked: + 2.34
Earnings Date 10/25/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.8 million

---

Blue Nile - NILE - cls: 36.13 chg: +0.08 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous updates on NILE. The stock spent most of Wednesday's session in a 15-cent range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our estimated cost was $2.40 and we're planning to sell if either side of our strangle rises to $3.90. The options in our suggested strangle are the January $45 call (JWU-AI) and the January $35 put (JWU-MG).

Picked on October 29 at $ 38.92
Change since picked: - 2.79
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 226 thousand
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

Intercont.Exchange - ICE - cls: 87.92 chg: +0.08 stop: 82.55

Shares of ICE are not cooperating. The stock has been bouncing higher this week and is challenging resistance in the $89-90 range. A breakout over $90 could be used as a bullish entry point. It was our plan to buy puts on a breakdown under $80 but that has failed to occur. We're dropping ICE as a bearish candidate.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 11/02/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

Play Update Archives