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Call Updates

B.P.Prudhoe Bay - BPT - close: 73.52 chg: -0.83 stop: 72.45

We don't see any changes from our weekend play description on BPT. Crude oil rose over a dollar to close at more than $60 a barrel but that failed to save most of the oil sector from Monday's market sell-off. We're still waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $75.00 level in BPT. Our suggested trigger to buy calls is at $75.25. If triggered our target is the $79.75-80.00 range. Keep an eye on the 100-dma near $77, which might offer some resistance. The P&F chart is bullish with an $85 target.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 219 thousand

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CNOOC - CEO - close: 87.02 change: -0.83 stop: 84.45

Trading in CEO turned out bearish on Monday. The stock hit a new relative high this morning and then turned south producing a failed rally. Crude oil's climb back above $60 a barrel was no help. Keep an eye on the $85.00-85.50 region for potential support. Our target is the $89.50-90.00 range.

Picked on November 21 at $ 85.94
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 03/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 261 thousand

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Cummins Inc. - CMI - close: 120.85 chg: -3.30 stop: 119.90

The industrials' triple-digit decline sucked the life out of CMI's bullish bounce from last week. The stock fell 2.6% and back toward support near the $120 level. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from $120. We are sticking to our plan with a trigger to buy calls at $125.15. Our target is the $129.90-130.00 range.

Picked on November xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million

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FedEx - FDX - close: 116.10 chg: -1.26 stop: 113.90

The rise in crude oil weighed on the transports. The Dow Jones Transportation average lost 1.1%. Shares of FDX dipped to $115.46 before bouncing. A rebound from here could be used as a new bullish entry point. Unfortunately, the market's sell-off today seemed rather virulent and the profit taking may not be over yet. We would be very cautious about opening new call positions. More conservative traders might want to consider an early exit to limit any losses. Our target is the $124.00-125.00 range. The P&F chart is more optimistic with a $153 target. FYI: We do not want to hold over the December earnings report.

Picked on November 15 at $117.15
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 12/21/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million

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Fomento Econo. - FMX - close: 102.21 chg: -2.61 stop: 99.49

Shares of Mexico-based FMX were not spared from the selling in U.S. markets today. The stock lost 2.48% after hitting new all-time highs last week. We would not be surprised to see a dip toward round-number support at $100 bolstered by technical support at its rising 50-dma. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on November 08 at $102.09
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 10/27/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 314 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 50.16 chg: -1.56 stop: 49.49

Technology stocks lead the sell-off and the SOX semiconductor index fell 2.3%. Shares of KLAC under performed with a 3% decline but the selling stalled near round-number support at the $50.00 level. A bounce from here could be used as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $54.50-55.00 range. The stock appears to have solid resistance at $55.00.

Picked on November 14 at $ 50.81
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 01/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million

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Sepracor - SEPR - close: 54.05 chg: -1.25 stop: 52.35

Drug and biotech stocks weathered Monday's storm on Wall Street better than most sectors but they still closed lower. Shares of SEPR lost 2.2% and dipped to its 10-dma. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but we suspect that SEPR might dip toward the $53 level soon. It might pay off to wait. We're aiming for the $59.50-60.00 range because the daily/weekly charts have resistance near $60.00.

Picked on November 19 at $ 54.69
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Thomas & Betts - TNB - close: 51.14 chg: -1.68 stop: 49.90

The market sell-off hit TNB pretty hard with a 3.1% decline on top of last week's consolidation lower. Today's decline is a bearish breakdown of its two-week trendline of higher lows and it also looks like a potential breakdown of the three-month trendline of support. The only reason we are not suggesting an early exit now is that TNB is likely to have technical support at its rising 50-dma and 200-dma near $50.40. More conservative traders may want to exit early anyway to limit losses. Our target is the $56.00-57.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $77 target.

Picked on November 12 at $ 51.36
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 01/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 471 thousand
 

Put Updates

None
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Caterpillar - CAT - close: 61.97 chg: -0.90 stop: n/a

We don't see any changes from our weekend update on our CAT strangle. Traders need to make a decision with this strangle play on CAT. We have three weeks left before December options expire. For this play to have any hope of being successful we need to see CAT trade above $66 or under $54 before expiration. That is certainly possible but if the last few weeks are any indication then odds are growing that our options will expire worthless. If you're not willing to risk it then try exiting early and salvaging some of your trading capital. We're not suggesting new positions. The options in our strangle are the December $65 call (CAT-LM) and the December $55 put (CAT-XK). Our estimated cost was about $0.75. We want to exit if either options rises to $1.50.

Picked on November 08 at $ 60.10
Change since picked: + 1.87
Earnings Date 01/19/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million

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Blue Nile - NILE - cls: 34.86 chg: -1.38 stop: n/a

We were expecting a breakout in NILE soon and Monday's market decline made the decision for NILE. Retailers didn't fare so well and shares of NILE, an online retailer, lost 3.8%. Shares did manage a bounce near technical support at its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma. We're not suggesting new strangle positions at this time. Our estimated cost was $2.40 and we're planning to sell if either side of our strangle rises to $3.90. The options in our suggested strangle are the January $45 call (JWU-AI) and the January $35 put (JWU-MG).

Picked on October 29 at $ 38.92
Change since picked: - 4.06
Earnings Date 10/30/06 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 226 thousand
 

Dropped Calls

Akamai Technologies - AKAM - cls: 47.62 chg: -2.83 stop: 47.95

Networking stocks were some of the worst performers within the technology stock sell-off on Monday. The NWX networking index lost 3% and AKAM under performed with a 5.6% decline to break support at its 50-dma. We've been stopped out at $47.95.

Picked on November 21 at $ 50.65
Change since picked: - 3.03
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - close: 151.00 chg: -7.60 stop: 151.89

The market's biggest one-day percentage drop since last July was lead by the broker-dealer stocks. The group had been hitting a string of new all-time highs and that made them the big target to lock in profits today. The XBD index lost 3.5%. Shares of BSC, which had come very close to our target in the $159-160 range, plunged almost 4.8% to hit our stop loss at $151.89 (breakeven).

Picked on November 14 at $151.89
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 12/14/06 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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