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Call Updates

Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 79.90 chg: -0.41 stop: 77.99

The railroad stocks still aren't moving even as the wider transport section is trying to bounce on a pull back in crude oil. Both BNI and the railroad index produced an early rally that faded pretty quickly leaving the stock and the sector drifting sideways to down. Thus far BNI is still holding above short-term support at its 10-dma and its four-week trendline of support but the stock is very close to breaking down under that trendline. Given the recent false starts we'd wait for a rise past $81.50 or $82.00 before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $79.00. Our target is the $87.00-87.50 range. The Point & Figure chart points to $100 and BNI's inverse H&S pattern also suggests a $100 target.

Picked on February 1 at $ 82.01
Change since picked: - 2.11
Earnings Date 01/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 166.44 chg: +0.29 stop: 161.49

We do not have anything new to report on for BSC. The are still trying to creep higher. The overall trend remains bullish but there is very little momentum at the moment. We are still suggesting new call positions now but if a dip occurs then look for a bounce in the $162.50-163.00 region. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $167.50 before initiating positions. We have two targets. Our first target is the $172.00 level. Our second target is the $174.75-175.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid-March earnings report.

Picked on February 04 at $166.35
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Garmin - GRMN - close: 51.70 change: +0.75 stop: 48.79

Share of GRMN out performed the broader market on Wednesday with a 1.47% gain although volume continues to lag the daily average. The stock looks poised to breakout over the $52.00 region and its simple 50-dma soon. We would still consider new plays here but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $52.00. Bear in mind that our target is the $54.75-55.00 range. The company is expected to report earnings on the morning of Wednesday, February 14th. That means we need to exit the night before.

Picked on February 04 at $ 51.15
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 84.42 chg: -0.28 stop: 81.99

The RLX retail index and JCP managed to hit new all-time highs today. The only difference is that the RLX closed at a new high. Shares of JCP pulled back from its best levels and it might see more profit taking tomorrow. Yesterday we suggested a trigger to buy calls at $85.51, which was hit early this afternoon so the play is now open. We would still consider new positions now and look for a dip into the $83.00-82.50 region as a new entry point to buy calls. The P&F chart points to a $108 target. Our target is the $89.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the February 22nd earnings.

Picked on February 06 at $ 85.51
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Nike - NKE - close: 102.90 change: +1.73 stop: 97.99

The rally in NKE continues. The stock broke out to a new high with today's 1.7% gain. Volume came in strong, which is another bullish condition. We do not see any changes from our previous update. If you don't feel like chasing it consider waiting for a dip into the $102.00-101.00 region. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range. FYI: Yesterday we mentioned that more aggressive traders may have wanted to wait for a breakout over $101.50 but we meant more conservative traders.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 1.73
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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OM Group - OMG - close: 50.94 change: +0.53 stop: 46.95 *new*

OMG continues to show strength. The stock hit an intraday high of $51.95 before paring its gains. An intraday bounce near $50.00 could be used as a new entry point. We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $46.95.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 2.89
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 136.69 chg: -0.91 stop: 127.75

CSCO's earnings news sparked a rally in tech stocks but it failed to rub off on shares of RIMM. The stock traded sideways in a $3.30 range. We are a little surprised that RIMM didn't show more strength after news out today that the company had won a patent challenge in British courts. We do not see any significant changes from our previous updates. Our target is the $140.00-142.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish due to the January sell-off.

Picked on February 04 at $132.82
Change since picked: + 3.87
Earnings Date 03/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.2 million

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RTI Int. - RTI - close: 82.83 change: -1.14 stop: 77.75

RTI failed to see any follow through on yesterday's bounce. The stock appears stuck in an $81-85 trading range. We would still consider new positions on bounces in the $80.00-81.50 region but readers may want to raise their stop loss. Broken resistance near $80 should be support. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 57.97 chg: -0.48 stop: 54.99

The homebuilders are struggling to keep their bullish momentum from last week alive. So far this week has been one of consolidation. We would still consider new bullish positions with RYL near $57.50, which the stock approached this afternoon. However, more conservative traders looking for some momentum may want to wait for a rise past $59.00 or the $60 level before initiating positions. The Point & Figure chart for RYL has produced a double-top breakout buy signal with a $70 target. We are aiming for the $64.00-65.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $ 59.29
Change since picked: - 1.32
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Teleflex - TFX - close: 66.48 chg: -0.36 stop: 64.75

TFX is not cooperating and the lack of upward momentum has us considering an early exit. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $71.00-72.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $81 target. We plan to exit ahead of the mid February earnings report. FYI: We cannot find a confirmed earnings date and it looks like TFX is due to report in the February 14th-27th range. More conservative traders may not want to open plays with a potential earnings announcement just seven trading days away.

Picked on January 14 at $ 67.11
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 202 thousand
 

Put Updates

None
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Google - GOOG - cls: 470.01 change: -1.47 stop: n/a

GOOG completely ignored the rally in tech stocks, especially the 2.2% rally in the INX Internet index. The stock quietly traded sideways and below average volume. Lack of a bounce in GOOG is bearish, which is consistent with the current or new trend but we are still running out of time. More conservative traders may want to exit early and salvage some of their capital. We're going to stick it out with only a seven days left for February options. We are not suggesting new positions. In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40 and we want to exit if either option rises to $29.00 or more. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70 and we want to sell if either option rises to $16.00 or more.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -25.83
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 73.92 chg: -0.01 stop: n/a

There is no change in UPS and we see no changes from our previous updates. This is turning into a worst-case scenario with UPS' lack of movement. More conservative traders may want to adjust their targets to break even. Our estimated cost was $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 1.43
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 75.38 change: +3.19 stop: 76.25

We warned readers that CSCO's earnings could have a big impact on rival FFIV. CSCO came out with earnings last night that beat the street's estimates and CSCO's management raised their guidance. This fueled a fire under FFIV (or maybe it was short covering) and shares of FFIV surged 4.4%. Today's rally is a breakout over $75.00 and its 50-dma. We're suggesting readers exit early to avoid further losses.

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.70
Change since picked: + 2.68
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million

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Ventana Medical - VMSI - cls: 42.59 chg: +1.54 stop: 42.05

We are dropping VMSI as a bearish candidate. The stock is showing too much strength and looks poised to breakout over resistance in the $42.50-43.00 region. It was our plan to buy puts on a breakdown under $40.00 with our trigger at $39.75 but the stock has not even come close since we added it to the newsletter.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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