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Call Updates

Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 79.44 chg: -0.46 stop: 77.99

We are growing more concerned about the strength of the rally in BNI and the rest of the railroads. Another strong rise in crude oil today weighed on the transports. Shares of BNI posted its second close under the $80 level and its first close under its 10-dma in several days. Volume on today's decline for BNI was above average. We are strongly considering an early exit to cut our losses now. More conservative traders may want to exit tomorrow morning. If we do not see a bounce tomorrow we'll probably exit early too!

Picked on February 1 at $ 82.01
Change since picked: - 2.57
Earnings Date 01/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 163.75 chg: -2.69 stop: 161.49

Financial stocks felt the brunt of today's selling pressure (behind the homebuilders). Shares of BSC gapped open lower at $164.90 and dipped to $162.69 before bouncing. Volume on today's decline was above average, which is not a good sign for the bulls. Thus far shares of BSC are holding at support near the bottom of its rising channel and its simple 50-dma but readers should note that the intraday chart looks like BSC wants to trade lower. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses right now or tighten their stops toward today's low. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Picked on February 04 at $166.35
Change since picked: - 2.60
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Garmin - GRMN - close: 53.15 change: +1.45 stop: 49.75*new*

Thursday proved to be a bullish day for GRMN. The stock started off strong and steadily climbed throughout most of the session. Closing near its high for the day tends to be a bullish signal for tomorrow. It's also noteworthy that today's rally in GRMN (+2.8%) produced a breakout past the $52.00 level and its simple 50-dma. Our target is the $54.75-55.00 range. We are adjusting our stop loss to $49.75. The company is expected to report earnings on the morning of Wednesday, February 14th. That means we need to exit the night before.

Picked on February 04 at $ 51.15
Change since picked: + 2.00
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 83.45 chg: -0.97 stop: 81.99

JCP experienced some profit taking today. Retailers were hit with a mix of same-store sales figures for January and a sharp rise in crude oil, which prompted some selling in the sector. JCP's same-store sales numbers for January we slightly better than expected with a gain of +3.6% compared to consensus estimates of +3.5%. JCP lost 1.1% but managed to rebound off its worst levels of the day. The afternoon bounce looks like a new bullish entry point however readers may want to wait for a new rally past $84.00 before opening new positions. The P&F chart points to a $108 target. Our target is the $89.50-90.00 range. We do not want to hold over the February 22nd earnings.

Picked on February 06 at $ 85.51
Change since picked: - 2.06
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Nike - NKE - close: 103.39 change: +0.49 stop: 97.99

NKE continues to show relative strength and hits another new high. We do not see any changes from our previous update. If you don't feel like chasing it consider waiting for a dip into the $102.00-101.00 region. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 2.22
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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OM Group - OMG - close: 50.82 change: -0.12 stop: 46.95

OMG did a relatively decent job of resisting the market weakness today. Traders bought the initial dip near $50.00 this morning. We do not see any significant changes from our previous updates.
We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 2.77
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 138.29 chg: +1.60 stop: 127.75

RIMM inched higher today, rising 1.1% and closing near its highs for the day. The stock is nearing potential resistance in the $140-142 region, which also happens to be our target range.

Picked on February 04 at $132.82
Change since picked: + 4.47
Earnings Date 03/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.2 million

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RTI Int. - RTI - close: 83.21 change: +0.38 stop: 77.75

RTI displayed some relative strength with a nice bounce from rising, technical support at its 10-dma. Volume came in relatively low but we'd still consider new positions here. Broken resistance near $80 should be support. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 55.96 chg: -2.01 stop: 54.99

We are strongly considering an early exit and traders may want to do the same and just cut your losses in RYL. In the last two days there has been more analyst chatter about the housing market not yet hitting bottom. Today the group took a beating after Tol Brothers (TOL) said write downs would be worse than expected and lowered their earnings guidance for the first quarter. Shares of RYL sank 3.4% and closed under its 10-dma.

Picked on February 04 at $ 59.29
Change since picked: - 3.33
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Teleflex - TFX - close: 67.00 chg: +0.52 stop: 64.75

TFX displayed some relative strength with a bounce (+0.7%) on a down day for the major averages. Yet we remain defensive here and we're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $71.00-72.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $81 target. We plan to exit ahead of the mid February earnings report. FYI: We cannot find a confirmed earnings date and it looks like TFX is due to report in the February 14th-27th range. More conservative traders may not want to open plays with a potential earnings announcement just seven trading days away.

Picked on January 14 at $ 67.11
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 202 thousand
 

Put Updates

None
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Google - GOOG - cls: 471.03 change: +1.02 stop: n/a

GOOG isn't moving much. The stock has spent most of the last four trading days in a $466-475 trading range. Today's early morning low saw a rebound off its rising 100-dma. Volume has been under the daily average the last few sessions. More conservative traders may want to exit early and salvage some of their capital. We're going to stick it out with only a few days left for February options. We are not suggesting new positions. In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40 and we want to exit if either option rises to $29.00 or more. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70 and we want to sell if either option rises to $16.00 or more.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -24.81
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 73.33 chg: -0.59 stop: n/a

There is no change in UPS and we see no changes from our previous updates. This is turning into a worst-case scenario with UPS' lack of movement. More conservative traders may want to adjust their targets to break even. Our estimated cost was $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

Dropped Calls

None
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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