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Call Updates

Garmin - GRMN - close: 52.26 change: -0.89 stop: 49.95 *new*

Shares of GRMN could not escape the market-wide profit taking on Friday. The stock pulled back 1.6% and dipped toward short-term technical support near its 50-dma and the $52.00 level. More conservative traders may want to exit early on Monday morning to avoid or limit any losses. We are already planning to exit on Tuesday at the closing bell to avoid GRMN's earnings report on Wednesday. We're inching up our stop loss to $49.95.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on February 04 at $ 51.15
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 82.85 chg: -0.60 stop: 81.99

Warning! The retail stocks may be in trouble. Market action was bearish across the board on Friday and the RLX retail index produced a new failed rally/bearish reversal with Friday's session. Shares of JCP has failed to rebound and dipped again toward the $82.00 level. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time and if JCP doesn't bounce soon we'll drop it as a bullish candidate. Meanwhile in the news it was announced that JCP's CEO will present at a retail conference on February 13th.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays at this time.

Picked on February 06 at $ 85.51
Change since picked: - 2.66
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Nike - NKE - close: 103.60 change: +0.21 stop: 99.49 *new*

NKE ignored the market's weakness on Friday and continued to push higher. NKE has hit a succession of new all-time highs this past week with the breakout past $101. Volume has been above average for the last three days, which tends to be a bullish signal. Yet even NKE, with all its strength, may struggle to hit new highs if the market turns lower. We would hesitate to open new plays although we'll be watching for a dip toward $102.00-101.50, which could be used as a new entry point to buy calls. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $99.49. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bullish plays in NKE at this time.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 2.43
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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OM Group - OMG - close: 50.30 change: -0.52 stop: 47.75 *new*

The rally in OMG ran into trouble with market weakness on Thursday and Friday. Volume dried up as the stock consolidated sideways in the $50-52 region. Lower volume is what bulls want to see during a consolidation in a stock's rising trend. However, we're concerned that the markets may be in for a deeper correction. Therefore we would not suggest new bullish positions at this time but we'll be watching for a bounce near $48.00 just in case as a potential bullish entry point. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $47.75. We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bullish positions in OMG at this time.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 2.25
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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RTI Int. - RTI - close: 81.19 change: -2.02 stop: 79.75 *new*

The action in steel stocks on Friday was dictated by U.S.Steel (X). After a big rally in the last two weeks, shares of X lost 4.3% following news that two analyst firms issued downgrades for the stock on Friday. These downgrades and the market-wide profit taking influenced trading in RTI. Shares of RTI lost 2.4% and slipped toward broken resistance and what should be support near $80.00. The low on Friday was $80.30. RTI was beginning to bounce from the $80 level on Friday afternoon but we would be careful about opening new bullish positions given the market's vulnerable condition. We did note that RTI's low on Friday pierced the bottom of its four-week rising channel but the stock's afternoon rebound put it back into the channel. Aggressive traders might want to consider new positions on a bounce back above $82.50 but readers should note that we're raising the stop loss to $79.75. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new bullish positions in RTI at this time.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand
 

Put Updates

None
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Google - GOOG - cls: 461.89 change: - 9.14 stop: n/a

Interest rate concerns sparked profit taking in the growth stock sectors and tech was hit pretty hard. Shares of GOOG another 1.9% and broke down under technical support at its simple 100-dma. We are not suggesting new positions. Don't forget that February options expire in five trading days. In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40 and we are adjusting our target to $24.50. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70 and we are adjusting our target to $9.00.

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new positions in GOOG.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -33.95
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 73.56 chg: +0.23 stop: n/a

Surprisingly, UPS continues to resistance any post-earnings warning selling and the stock is resisting the rise in crude oil, which puts pressure on fuel costs. Maybe investors are hesitant to let go of UPS following FDX's bullish breakout a week ago. Whatever the case shares of UPS are not moving and that is a worst-case scenario for our strangle play. We have five days left for February options. We are adjusting our target to breakeven at $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Suggested Options:
We are not suggesting new plays in UPS.

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 1.07
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

Dropped Calls

Burlington Nor.SantaFe - BNI - cls: 79.13 chg: -0.31 stop: 77.99

We are jumping out of the BNI play. Several sector indices and a number of market internals and technicals are turning bearish. While the railroad index (DJUSRR) looks like it could bounce from its six-week trendline of higher lows, shares of BNI have already broken that trendline of support. Furthermore volume is rising as BNI continues to slip lower and the technical picture on BNI has turned increasingly more bearish. We warned readers on Thursday that we were considering an early exit. If BNI breaks $78.50 nimble traders might want to try and scalp a drop toward $75.00.

Picked on February 1 at $ 82.01
Change since picked: - 2.88
Earnings Date 01/23/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million

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Bear Stearns - BSC - cls: 159.73 chg: -4.02 stop: 161.49

We have been stopped out of BSC at $161.49. Renewed concerns about rising interest rates sent shockwaves through the financial stocks. The broker-dealers really took a beating with the XBD index slipping 1.7%. Shares of BSC under performed its peers with a 2.4% loss. Friday's breakdown looks pretty bearish with a technical breakdown below the bottom of its channel and its 50-dma on big volume. A failed rally under $162 might just be a new entry point to buy puts.

Picked on February 04 at $166.35
Change since picked: - 6.62
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million

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Research In Motion - RIMM - cls: 134.21 chg: -4.19 stop: 127.75

It was close but not close enough. RIMM rallied to $139.74 on Friday morning and then promptly dropped. Our target was the $140.00-142.00 range. In hindsight we should have set the target starting at $139.50 give or take a quarter. Tech stocks endured most of the profit taking on Friday and RIMM was no exception with a 3% decline. Friday's performance looks like a clearly defined failed rally under resistance and almost a bearish engulfing candlestick. We're suggesting an early exit now to avoid or narrow future losses. We would keep an eye on RIMM as the $130 level might offer some support.

Picked on February 04 at $132.82
Change since picked: + 1.39
Earnings Date 03/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.2 million

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Ryland Group - RYL - close: 54.27 chg: -1.69 stop: 54.99

We have been stopped out of RYL at $54.99. The homebuilders continued to sink and the bullish breakout a week ago now looks like a bull trap. Technicals have turned bearish.

Picked on February 04 at $ 59.29
Change since picked: - 5.02
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million

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Teleflex - TFX - close: 66.19 chg: -0.81 stop: 64.75

Another decline in TFX, this time a bearish engulfing candlestick, combined with widespread market weakness looks like a good sign to bail out of any bullish positions. TFX might still have support near $65.00 and its 50-dma but we don't want to find out.

Picked on January 14 at $ 67.11
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 202 thousand
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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