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Call Updates

Garmin - GRMN - close: 51.84 change: -0.42 stop: 49.95

GRMN was downgraded on Monday morning and that accounted for the stock's gap down and spike to $51.12 this morning. Traders bought the initial dip near its simple 10-dma but the bounce struggled to make it past Friday's close, which is somewhat bearish. It looks like GRMN is poised to dip further toward $51.00 and maybe the $50 level. More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are planning to exit on Tuesday at the closing bell to avoid the company's earnings on Wednesday.

Picked on February 04 at $ 51.15
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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Nike - NKE - close: 104.37 change: +0.77 stop: 99.49

NKE posted yet another gain on Monday and another new high after the stock was upgraded this morning. Boosting shares of NKE were positive analyst comments and a new, raised price target of $125. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 3.20
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million

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OM Group - OMG - close: 49.61 change: -0.69 stop: 47.75

OMG continued to consolidate lower but it looks like traders were beginning to buy the dip near the bottom edge of OMG's three-week, bullish channel. We remain defensive here and hesitate to open new bullish call plays but a rebound over $50.00 could be used as a new entry point. We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand

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RTI Int. - RTI - close: 81.40 change: +0.21 stop: 79.75

RTI continues to find support near broken resistance at the $80 level. Traders bought the dip at $80.42 this morning and then at $80.57 this afternoon. We are still concerned about a stronger pull back in the major averages and hesitate to open new positions now although technically a bounce from here would be a new entry point to buy calls. It might payoff to wait for a rebound past $82.50 first before opening new positions. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand
 

Put Updates

Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 68.27 chg: +0.47 stop: 70.11

HOG produced a 0.69% oversold bounce on Monday. The stock should run into resistance in the $69.00-69.50 region so readers can watch for a failed rally in that zone as a new entry point to buy puts. We are aiming for the $63.00-62.00 range but more conservative traders may want to exit early near $65.00. FYI: In the news today HOG announced some layoffs as the company deals with a strike at its largest plant.

Picked on February 11 at $ 67.80
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

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MarineMax - HZO - close: 22.72 change: +0.13 stop: 24.25

HZO produced a minor bounce following Friday's decline. This is not a surprise and readers can watch for a failed rally in the 23.25-23.75 area for a new entry point. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand

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Meritage - MTH - close: 41.36 change: -0.63 stop: 45.26

The homebuilders continued to under perform on Monday. The DJUSHB index lost 1.1%. Shares of MTH lost 1.5% and appeared to confirm Friday's bearish breakdown under support near $42.50. Volume continues to come in above average on the sell-off, which is normally a bearish signal. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Traders should expect some sort of bounce near $40.00 but we suspect it would be temporary. The P&F chart has produced a triple-breakdown sell signal with a $37.00 target. We are aiming for the $37.50-37.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 41.99
Change since picked: - 0.63
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 473 thousand

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Sealed Air - SEE - close: 64.20 chg: +0.12 stop: 65.26

SEE failed to move much either direction on Monday and volume came in very low. It seems like the bulls and the bears are waiting to see who blinks first. The stock continues to look poised for a significant pull back. We're waiting for a breakdown under its 50-dma and suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $63.75. If triggered our target is the $60.15-60.00.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 281 thousand
 

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

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Google - GOOG - cls: 458.29 change: - 3.60 stop: n/a

GOOG was a notable laggard today. The stock lost 0.7% and broke down under the $460 level. The stock's afternoon bounce appeared to produce a failed rally near the $460 region. Fueling the weakness was news out today claiming that GOOG has benefited from pirated videos/movies on the Internet and the producers are crying foul. The trend continues to look very bearish for GOOG but we're just running out of time. Plus, the stock could have support near the top of its October gap higher in the $450-452 zone. Therefore, with just four trading days left for February options, we are adjusting our targets to breakeven for the February $470 put (GOP-NG), which is $17.40 and we're adjusting our target to $6.00 on the $450 put (GOP-NJ). In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -37.55
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million

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United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 73.87 chg: +0.31 stop: n/a

At this point our strangle in UPS is pretty much dead. The stock has failed to move in spite of a very negative earnings report and some significant swings in crude oil. Our target has been adjusted to breakeven at $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 1.38
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
 

Dropped Calls

J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 82.48 chg: -0.37 stop: 81.99

We are suggesting an early exit with JCP. The pull back in oil today should have been bullish for the retailers but the retail index barely moved. Shares of JCP failed to bounce and closed near its lows for the session. While JCP does still have short-term support near $82.00 we are not willing to count on it at this time. Readers may want to keep an eye on JCP for a new rally past $85.00 or a breakdown under $80.00 as potential entry points for bullish or bearish positions, respectively.

Picked on February 06 at $ 85.51
Change since picked: - 3.03
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
 

Dropped Puts

None
 

Dropped Strangles

None
 

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