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Call Updates

Nike - NKE - close: 105.20 change: +0.83 stop: 99.89 *new*

The rally in NKE continues. A bullish day for the markets helped NKE rush past potential resistance at the $105 level. The stock is up six days in a row and more conservative traders might want to consider taking an early profit now. We are adjusting our stop loss to $99.89. We remain bullish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $107.50-110.00 range.

Picked on February 06 at $101.17
Change since picked: + 4.03
Earnings Date 03/21/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million


OM Group - OMG - close: 51.22 change: +1.61 stop: 47.75

The bounce back over the $50 level looks like another entry point in OMG. Traders continued to buy the dip and OMG out performed the S&P 500 with a 3.2% gain. We are aiming for the $54.00-55.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings.

Picked on January 25 at $ 48.05
Change since picked: + 3.17
Earnings Date 03/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 770 thousand


RTI Int. - RTI - close: 81.88 change: +0.48 stop: 79.75

Most of the metal-related stocks traded higher today but the bounce in RTI looked a little anemic. Shares closed off their best levels of the session and failed to close back above its simple 10-dma. The technical indicators are somewhat mixed but the MACD on the daily chart is near a new sell signal. On the other hand RTI is still trading inside its five-week rising channel. Readers looking for a new entry point can buy today's bounce but more conservative traders may want to wait and see a trade over $83.00 before initiating positions. The P&F chart points to a $105 target. Our target is the $88.00-90.00 range.

Picked on January 31 at $ 81.75
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 03/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand

Put Updates

Harley Davidson - HOG - cls: 67.85 chg: -0.42 stop: 70.11

HOG continues to under perform. The stock dipped to a new relative low this morning at $66.90. The afternoon bounce pulled HOG back toward $68 but momentum was just starting to fade into the closing bell. We remain bearish with HOG under its 10-dma. We are aiming for the $63.00-62.00 range but more conservative traders may want to exit early near $65.00.

Picked on February 11 at $ 67.80
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 04/19/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million


MarineMax - HZO - close: 22.74 change: +0.02 stop: 24.25

HZO failed to participate in the market's rebound on Tuesday. This is bearish and supports the bearish outlook. The MACD on the daily chart is very close to a new sell signal. We would consider new positions now or on a failed rally in the $23.25-23.75 zone. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $20.25-20.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 22.59
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 300 thousand


Meritage - MTH - close: 42.36 change: +1.00 stop: 45.26

The homebuilders bounced after several days of losses. Today's catalyst was an earnings report from KB Homes (KBH). KBH reported earnings that were a loss from a year ago but the loss was not as bad as Wall Street expected. Keeping an eye on MTH we would use a failed rally under $44.00 as a new entry point for bearish plays. Traders should expect some sort of bounce near $40.00 but we suspect it would be temporary. The P&F chart has produced a triple-breakdown sell signal with a $37.00 target. We are aiming for the $37.50-37.00 range.

Picked on February 11 at $ 41.99
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 473 thousand


Sealed Air - SEE - close: 65.05 chg: +0.85 stop: 65.26

It looks like the bears blinked first and bulls are trying to reassert control over SEE. Today's rebound from support near its 50-dma might be considered a bullish entry point but if you want to buy calls we'd wait for a breakout over $65.50 or better yet a new relative high over $66.50. Currently, we're still waiting and watching for a bearish breakdown. Our trigger to buy puts is at $63.75. If triggered our target is the $60.15-60.00.

Picked on February xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 281 thousand

Strangle Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)


Google - GOOG - cls: 459.10 change: + 0.81 stop: n/a

It was a relatively quiet day for GOOG. The stock spent most of Tuesday in a $4.00 range. The stock failed to participate in the market's rebound and that could be bad news for the bulls. In the news today GOOG lost a court battle over content with a Belgian newspaper. The company is appealing. We have three days left for February options. Our adjusted target for the February $470 put (GOP-NG) is our breakeven point at $17.40. Our adjusted target for the $450 put (GOP-NJ) is at $6.00. In our original play description we suggested two different potential strangle strategies. One involved the February $530 call (GOP-BW) and the February $470 put (GOP-NG). This strategy had an estimated cost of $17.40. The second strangle strategy involved the February $550 call (GOP-BY) and the February $450 put (GOP-NJ). This second strategy had an estimated cost of $8.70.

Picked on January 28 at $495.84
Change since picked: -36.74
Earnings Date 01/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million


United Parcel Srv. - UPS - cls: 74.39 chg: +0.52 stop: n/a

There is no change from our previous comments on UPS. At this point our strangle in UPS is pretty much dead. The stock has failed to move in spite of a very negative earnings report and some significant swings in crude oil. Our target has been adjusted to breakeven at $1.65. We suggested the February $75 call (UPS-BO) and the February $70 put (UPS-NN).

Picked on January 28 at $ 72.49
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 01/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million

Dropped Calls

Garmin - GRMN - close: 52.71 change: +0.87 stop: 49.95

The market bounce helped the rebound in GRMN and shares rallied 1.6%. Today's breakout back above $52 and its 50-dma is bullish. Unfortunately, we needed to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over tomorrow's earnings report. Analysts estimates are for GRMN to turn in 58 cents a share.

Picked on February 04 at $ 51.15
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million

Dropped Puts


Dropped Strangles


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